⚾ MLB TOTALS PROJECTOR

James matchup method · league-normalized · no override rules
Away team
Home team
Posted total (sportsbook)
Recency weight (season ↔ last 5)
0%
Away starter ERA (optional)
Home starter ERA (optional)
–
Projected
–
Posted
–
Gap
Formula: expected runs = (team offense × opponent run prevention) ÷ league average, summed for both sides. Enter starter ERAs and each team's run prevention becomes 60% starter ERA + 40% season staff. This is a projection, not a prediction. Even with the pitcher in, a single game stays noisy and small-sample ERAs (spot starters, a few outings) can mislead.
Calibration tracker — all logged games, not just flagged
Games tracked
0
Avg gap vs line
–
Projection leans
–
−2 under
+2 over
No games logged yet. Run a game, enter the posted total, then click “Add this game to tracker.”