Date: Monday, December 1, 2025 | Time: 8:15 PM EST Line: Patriots -7 | Total: 46.5
The Raymond Report Forecast
The Raymond Report’s analytical model strongly favors the home team.
- Projected Score: New England Patriots 27.58 vs. New York Giants 18.47
- Projected Total: 46.05
This forecast suggests a margin of victory of 9.11 points for the Patriots, which is significantly above the 7-point spread, indicating a clear lean towards New England covering the number. The projected total of 46.05 sits just below the posted total, pointing toward the Under.
Statistical Breakdown and Key ATS Trends
New England Patriots (-7) Analysis
The Patriots enter this game as one of the hottest teams in the league, riding a 9-game Straight-Up (SU) winning streak and sitting at an impressive 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS on the season. Their recent form is dominant: 5-0 SU in their last five games, scoring 27.4 points per game (PF) while holding opponents to a stingy 18.6 points against (PA).
The Defining ATS Edge: The strongest statistical indicator for the Patriots is a situational trend that aligns perfectly with their current status:
- When NEW ENGLAND plays as Home Favorite, Before a Conference Game, and Allowed 20 points or less AGAINST in their last game, they are 16-7-0 ATS (70% ATS Win Rate).
The Patriots allowed 20 points to Cincinnati last game (meeting the criteria) and face a conference opponent next (Buffalo), making this a highly profitable trend to back.
Contrarian Trends: A slight negative signal comes from their recent total history: the Patriots are 4-6-0 ATS when playing at home in Weeks 12-16, coming off two straight Unders.
New York Giants (+7) Analysis
The Giants (2-10 SU) are struggling with a 6-game SU losing streak, but they have shown resilience against the spread, sitting at 5-6-1 ATS for the season.
The Defining ATS Edge: The Giants’ best statistical support comes from a specific road trend:
- When NY GIANTS team played as a Road team, During Week 12 to 16, After a non-division game, and Scored 22-28 POINTS FOR in their last game, they are 7-3-1 ATS (70% ATS Win Rate).
The Giants scored 27 points last week (meeting the range), and this is a road non-division matchup, suggesting they are historically competitive under these specific circumstances.
Situational Notes: The Giants are 0-4 SU as a Road Underdog this season, getting blown out by an average of 7.5 points in those games.
The Picks
The sheer dominance of the New England Patriots, combined with a highly successful 16-7 ATS trend under these exact circumstances, outweighs the Giants’ positive road trend. The projected 9.11-point margin for New England is the clearest signal.
Against The Spread (ATS) Pick
New England Patriots -7
Total (O/U) Pick
The model projects a total of 46.05, and the Patriots’ last five games have been characterized by suffocating defense (18.6 PA). Given the strength of the New England defense, trust the slight edge towards a lower-scoring affair. Under 46.5
