Monday Night Football Preview: Eagles at Bears, Raymond Report Fact Sheet Breakdown

GAME IDENTIFIERS: MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2026

Philadelphia visits Chicago at Soldier Field in the Monday Night Football matchup scheduled for 20:15 ET.

The Raymond Report Fact Sheet lists Philadelphia as a 3.5-point road favorite. The supplied Raymond Report audio selection is a LEAN on Under 44, while the current fact sheet lists the game total at 41.5. The distinction between those two total references is material and remains part of the analysis.

For additional NFL betting statistics, ATS records, and team trend data, review the ATS Stats NFL Picks page.

FACT SHEET SNAPSHOT

Metric	Philadelphia Eagles	Chicago Bears
Venue status	Road	Home
Spread	-3.5	+3.5
Moneyline	-208	+170
Posted total	41.5	41.5
Forecast points	24.15	19.88
Displayed O/U forecast	44.03	44.03
L5 SU	2-0	1-1
L5 ATS	0-2-0	1-1-0
L5 O/U	2-0-0	1-1-0
VI	-4.29	3.38
C.O.W. Chance of Winning	60%	37.04%
C.O.C	100%	50%
C.O.G.O	25%	25%
P/M (L3G)	2	5.33
Side Edges	17	10
Total Edges	3 Over / 9 Under	5 Over / 1 Under
S.O.S. (L3G)	16.67%	66.67%
PVI-SOS	(A) BULLISH (15 D)	(B) NEUTRAL (8 D)

CURRENT STREAKS

Philadelphia: 2 SU wins, 2 ATS losses, 2 Overs.
Chicago: 1 SU loss, 1 ATS loss, 1 Under.

The fact sheet gives Philadelphia the higher side-edge count, higher C.O.W., and a stronger PVI-SOS classification. Chicago holds the higher recent S.O.S. figure at 66.67%, compared with Philadelphia at 16.67%.

Abstract NFL betting line dashboard showing the Eagles-Bears spread and total

COMPUTER FORECAST AND VALUE INDEX

The forecast assigns Philadelphia 24.15 points and Chicago 19.88 points, with a displayed game forecast of 44.03.

That projection is above the current fact sheet total of 41.5 by 2.53 points. The Raymond Report audio pick, however, references a different number: Under 44. The audio reasoning states that the computer total of 42.99 sits 1.01 points below the posted 44, and that Chicago’s Monday home underdog trend after an ATS loss shows a 4-16-0 Under record.

The two report components therefore use different total references:

Total Reference	Number	Report Context
Audio pick reference	44	LEAN Under 44
Current fact sheet total	41.5	Posted game total
Fact sheet displayed forecast	44.03	Forecast O/U
Audio computer total	42.99	Audio rationale

The Side Edges column favors Philadelphia 17-10. The Total Edges column is more divided: Philadelphia shows 3 Over / 9 Under, while Chicago shows 5 Over / 1 Under. The VI rating is -4.29 for Philadelphia and 3.38 for Chicago, while the PVI-SOS classifications are BULLISH for Philadelphia and NEUTRAL for Chicago.

SEVEN HANDICAPPING ANGLES

1. RELIABLE ANALYTICS

The core model indicators favor Philadelphia on the side:

Philadelphia forecast: 24.15
Chicago forecast: 19.88
Philadelphia C.O.W.: 60%
Chicago C.O.W.: 37.04%
Side Edges: Philadelphia 17, Chicago 10
PVI-SOS: Philadelphia (A) BULLISH (15 D)

The fact sheet’s displayed total forecast is 44.03, compared with the posted total of 41.5. The audio report separately identifies Under 44 as the selection based on a 42.99 computer total.

2. HEAD COACH ATS RECORDS

Head coach ATS records were not included in the supplied Raymond Report Fact Sheet. No coach-specific ATS record is added here.

3. OC/DC MATCHUPS

Offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator matchup data were unavailable in the fact sheet. No coordinator edge is assigned.

4. DIVISIONAL AND CONFERENCE CONTEXT

Philadelphia and Chicago are not listed as divisional opponents in this matchup. The supplied conference and division-related splits show:

Philadelphia vs NFC North Division Opponent: 23-21-0 ATS, 27-44-3 O/U
Chicago vs NFC East Division Opponent: 19-29-0 ATS, 41-34-0 O/U
Philadelphia vs National Conference Opponent: 8-4-0 ATS, 140-149-5 O/U
Chicago vs National Conference Opponent: 10-4-1 ATS, 147-144-5 O/U

The direct matchup is an NFC game, but not a division game for either team.

Split-screen analytical comparison of generic Eagles and Bears football formations

5. STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE AND SCHEDULE SPOTS

Philadelphia enters with seven days of rest, identified as Rest First. Chicago also has seven days of rest, identified as Home Days.

The recent S.O.S. indicator favors Chicago:

Philadelphia S.O.S. (L3G): 16.67%
Chicago S.O.S. (L3G): 66.67%

Philadelphia’s flagged historical schedule spots include:

Coming off a win over an AFC South division opponent: 8-4-1 ATS, with an Over edge flagged
After playing Tennessee: 4-2-0 ATS, with an Under edge flagged
Vs. Chicago: 7-8-0 ATS, 5-10-0 O/U, with an Under edge flagged
Before playing the Los Angeles Rams: 7-4-0 ATS, 7-5-0 O/U, with both Over and Under flags

Chicago’s flagged spots include:

Coming off a home loss as a favorite: 7-8-1 ATS, 15-13-0 O/U, with an Over edge flagged
Coming off a six-point loss: 8-5-0 ATS, 4-13-0 O/U, with an Over edge flagged
Coming off a loss over an NFC North division opponent: 37-29-4 ATS, 14-19-4 O/U, with an Over edge flagged
After playing Minnesota: 12-20-3 ATS, 6-5-1 O/U, with an Over edge flagged
Vs. Philadelphia: 8-7-0 ATS, 5-10-0 O/U, with an Under edge flagged
Before playing the New York Jets: 2-2-0 ATS, 2-2-0 O/U, with an Over edge flagged

6. KEY NUMBERS AND LINE VALUE

The current spread is Philadelphia -3.5. The season data shows Philadelphia at 0-2 ATS, despite a 2-0 SU record. Chicago is 1-1 ATS and 1-1 SU.

Historical line-specific data:

Philadelphia when the total is 41.5: 3-5-1 ATS
Chicago when the total is 41.5: 4-7-2 ATS
Philadelphia as a road team: 12-6-0 ATS
Chicago as a home team: 13-5-2 ATS

The supplied fact sheet does not include a line-movement history. The current spread and total are reported as provided: Philadelphia -3.5, Chicago +3.5, total 41.5.

7. MARKET DISCIPLINE: CLV AND THE 52.4% RULE

Closing Line Value data and a specific 52.4% market-discipline result were not included in the fact sheet. No CLV conclusion is assigned.

The available market information is limited to the supplied spread, moneylines, total, edge counts, and historical ATS records.

HISTORICAL SERIES AND SITUATIONAL STATS

HEAD-TO-HEAD CONTEXT

The last-three-season block lists:

Philadelphia vs Chicago: 5-5 SU, 5-5-0 ATS, 3-7-0 O/U
Chicago vs Philadelphia: 2-8 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 4-6-0 O/U

Since 1983:

Historical Split	Philadelphia	Chicago
Philadelphia road vs Chicago / Chicago home vs Philadelphia: SU	8-7	7-8
ATS	7-8-0	8-7-0
O/U	5-10-0	5-10-0
Last 10 games context: SU	8-2	3-7
ATS	6-4-0	4-6-0
O/U	5-5-0	4-6-0

CURRENT SITUATIONAL RECORDS

Philadelphia is 1-0 as a home favorite and 1-0 as a road favorite. Chicago is 0-1 as a home favorite and 1-0 as a road favorite. No home-underdog or road-underdog sample is listed for either team.

Philadelphia’s last game was a 24-20 win at Tennessee. Chicago’s last game was a 9-3 loss versus Minnesota.

Football beside a downward over-under trend graphic in a bright stadium setting

OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE AVERAGES

Split	Philadelphia Off.	Philadelphia Def.	Chicago Off.	Chicago Def.
All Games Avg	24	21	31	23
Home Games Avg	24	22	3	9
Road Games Avg	24	20	59	37
Division Games Avg	24	22	3	9
Conference Games Avg	24	22	31	23
Non-Conference Games Avg	24	20	N/A	N/A
Bottom-Ranked Games Avg	24	21	N/A	N/A
After a Win	24	20	3	9
After an Over	24	20	3	9
Overall Avg	14	10	13	9
Situational Avg	18	15.5	30	20

Philadelphia’s last 3-, 5-, and 10-game averages were unavailable. Chicago’s last 3-, 5-, and 10-game averages were also unavailable. Several additional splits, including after a loss, after an under, and after a push, were unavailable for one or both teams.

RAYMOND REPORT AUDIO PICK

Selection: LEAN, Under 44

The Raymond Report audio reasoning uses a 42.99 computer total, which is 1.01 points below 44. It also cites Chicago’s Monday home underdog trend after an ATS loss: 4-16-0 Under.

The fact sheet’s current posted total is 41.5, not 44. The audio recommendation is therefore recorded exactly as issued: Under 44. The difference between the audio reference and the current fact-sheet number should be noted before any market comparison.

No side recommendation is issued in the supplied audio pick for this game.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Philadelphia’s forecast: 24.15 points.
Chicago’s forecast: 19.88 points.
Current spread: Philadelphia -3.5.
Current total: 41.5.
Audio total reference: 44.
Philadelphia: 2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U.
Chicago: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U.
Side-edge count: Philadelphia 17, Chicago 10.
Total-edge profile: Philadelphia 3 Over / 9 Under; Chicago 5 Over / 1 Under.
Historical direct-matchup O/U data is Under-leaning in the supplied blocks.
Head coach ATS, OC/DC matchup, injury, lineup, weather, late line-move, CLV, and 52.4% data were unavailable in the fact sheet.