NBA Market Value Index (MVI)

Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Welcome to the trading floor of the National Basketball Association — where teams aren’t just winning games, they’re moving markets. The Market Value Index (MVI) cuts through the noise by blending win rate, recent form (L7), streaks, and confidence to tell us one thing: where value is being created… and where it’s quietly leaking.

If you’re betting with feelings, today’s board will humble you. If you’re betting with numbers, there’s money hiding in plain sight.

📈 Market Overview: Risk-On at the Top, Value Brewing Below

The NBA market is currently top-heavy and momentum-driven. Grade A teams are priced like blue-chip stocks — expensive, stable, and heavily owned. Meanwhile, selective Grade C teams are flashing early accumulation signals for contrarian investors.

Translation: favorites are winning, but value isn’t always where the wins are.

🟢 BULLISH ZONE: Strong Hands, Strong Trends

These teams are doing exactly what elite assets should do — win consistently and confirm it recently.

🔥 Market Leaders

• Oklahoma City Thunder (33–7, MVI: -250)
  The market alpha. 83% win rate, 3-game heater, 71% confidence. This is institutional money, not public steam.
• Minnesota Timberwolves (26–14, MVI: -200)
  Quietly strong with a 5–2 L7 and bullish confirmation. Still not fully priced in.
• Phoenix Suns (24–15, MVI: -170)
  Momentum + form alignment. The market likes what it sees — and it should.

Market takeaway: These aren’t fade spots yet. When price and performance agree, don’t fight it.

🟡 NEUTRAL ZONE: Overpriced, Underwatched, or Stalling

This is the danger zone for casual bettors — recognizable names, mixed signals.

• Detroit Pistons & San Antonio Spurs
  Great records, but recent form cooling. These prices assume perfection — the market might be early to take profits.
• Boston Celtics & Los Angeles Lakers
  Public teams, public pricing. Neutral doesn’t mean bad — it means be selective.

Market takeaway: Neutral teams are where bankrolls go to die if you don’t pick your spots.

🔴 BEARISH ZONE: Fading Confidence, Fading Value

These teams are losing and the market knows it.

• New York Knicks (2–5 L7, 28% confidence)
  Still priced like contenders, playing like pretenders. That’s a red flag.
• Brooklyn Nets & New Orleans Pelicans
  Sub-30% confidence, brutal recent form. Catching these falling knives isn’t brave — it’s expensive.

Market takeaway: Until the confidence line turns, these are short-side or pass-only assets.

🟣 CONTRARIAN WATCHLIST: Early Accumulation Candidates

Here’s where sharp bettors start licking their chops 👀

• Atlanta Hawks (5–2 L7, +110)
• Los Angeles Clippers (5–2 L7, +160)
• Portland Trail Blazers (5–2 L7, +120)

Winning lately. Still priced like losers. That’s how value is born.

Market takeaway: These are not “must-bet” teams — they’re must-monitor teams.

🧠 Final Market Read (Tell-It-Like-It-Is Edition)

• Favorites are winning — but many are fully priced
• Public brands ≠ automatic value
• The next market move will come from the middle and lower tiers, not the top
• Confidence + recent form beats season narratives every time

If you want the daily edge, this is exactly what we track — before the sportsbooks adjust.

👉 Trade smarter, not louder — and get the full MVI breakdown daily at ATSStats.com
Because betting blind is expensive… and we prefer profits over vibes. 💸📊