Thursday, December 11, 2025
The Thursday slate brings four matchups dripping with market signals, streak inflation, and a couple of teams that look like they’re actively trying to tank before Christmas. Let’s break down the situational edges and value indicators that matter.
🟩 Boston Celtics (-9) vs Milwaukee Bucks
Forecast: Boston 116.79 – Milwaukee 109.31
Total: 223.5 (Model: 226.1)
The Celtics are rolling like a snowball downhill—five straight SU wins, four straight ATS wins, and the offense is in full Over mode. Their VIC rating sits at A (Bullish), and the confidence index is exactly what you want when laying points with a road favorite.
Milwaukee? Buddy… they’re in C (Bearish) territory with a 2–8 SU and ATS skid over the last 10 and just lost to Detroit. Yes, Detroit. When you’re losing to the Pistons, the market is telling you something: “We don’t trust you, and neither should investors.”
Raymond Report Read: Celtics win more often than not—but beware the inflated line. Value Index shows -8.33, meaning Boston may be overpriced. When a team is hot, the book adjusts.
Lean: Boston SU, but tread lightly ATS.
🟩 Houston Rockets (-9) vs Los Angeles Clippers
Forecast: Houston 113.16 – Clippers 105.66
Total: 222 (Model: 218.82)
Houston enters as another A (Bullish) team, sitting at 15–6 SU with a dominant 7–3 ATS run. They’re coming off a loss, but don’t let that fool you—the Rockets have been one of the most profitable A-type teams this season.
The Clippers? Picture a slow-moving shopping cart with a busted wheel.
6–18 SU, 2–8 SU in their last 10, and a V.I of +6.4, meaning the market is actually overvaluing them even when they lose. That’s a gift.
Raymond Report Read: Rockets are undervalued (V.I: -14.75) while the Clippers are still being priced like a team with hope.
Best Angle: Houston ATS if the line doesn’t jump beyond double digits.
🟩 Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5) vs New Orleans Pelicans
Forecast: Portland 123.07 – New Orleans 118.21
Total: 240.5 (Model: 241.28)
This is the “fire alarm game” — extremely high totals, two bad defenses, and two C-type teams with chaos streaks.
Portland is coming off a loss but still has a manageable V.I of -5.5. New Orleans, meanwhile, has lost seven straight SU and owns the worst SOS profile of the night (63.27%). This team plays just enough offense to tease you and just enough defense to break your heart.
Raymond Report Read: You never trust a “C” team on a losing streak to suddenly fix itself. The market agrees: Pelicans are C (Bearish) again and again.
Total Angle: With both teams hitting Over trends recently and a model projection near 241, expect points—but at 240.5, the number isn’t cheap.
Lean: Portland -4.5 or nothing.
🟩 Denver Nuggets (-10) vs Sacramento Kings
Forecast: Denver 123.52 – Sacramento 119.15
Total: 240.5 (Model: 242.67)
Denver—an A (Bullish) play—keeps proving why they’re one of the best investments in the NBA. They’ve won three straight SU and carry an elite 7–3 ATS record over their last 10. The offense is a machine (8 Overs in last 10), and the model projects another high-scoring effort.
Sacramento? Another C (Bearish) team trying to remember how to win basketball games. Their 1–9 O/U trend in recent contests signals they’re struggling to score—and defend. That’s a dangerous combination against Denver.
Raymond Report Read: Denver graded perfectly across all three categories:
- A-type team
- Bullish VIC
- Negative V.I (undervalued)
The Kings? Opposite on all three.
Lean: Denver ATS — but understand you’re paying for class vs. chaos.
🔥 Final Thoughts
If today taught us anything:
- A-type teams are the adults in the room.
- C-type teams are the toddler with the scissors.
- The market is finally correcting a few mispriced squads—but value still hides in the Rockets and Nuggets lines.
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