Favorites on fire. Totals trending up. Chalk bettors cashing in. The NBA market is officially in “BULLISH” mode.
The Sports Betting Index (SBI) from ATSstats.com is painting a clear picture of dominance from favorites, consistency from Overs, and a short-term heater for bettors who trust elite teams to get it done both straight-up and against the number.
Let’s dissect the data and see how the betting market is behaving across all three major fronts — SU (straight-up), ATS (against the spread), and O/U (totals).
📈 Straight-Up (SU):
Favorites Are Owning the Market
YTD Favorites SU: 71.4% — BULLISH
This is no fluke. The chalk wave is here, and it’s real.
Favorites are not only winning; they’re doing it consistently across all time frames:
- 1-Day: 73%
- 3-Day: 74.3%
- 7-Day: 71.9%
- 1-Month: 71.4%
The NBA’s elite are asserting early-season dominance. Bettors who have stuck with power teams like Boston, Denver, Milwaukee, and Oklahoma City are riding a profitable streak.
Key takeaway:
Favorites are not just winning, they’re winning comfortably. If you’re fading chalk in this market, you’re swimming upstream against a very strong current.
💸 Against the Spread (ATS):
Favorites Heating Up, But Balance Still Looms
YTD Favorites ATS: 51.8% — NEUTRAL
Favorites have taken control of the short-term ATS market with back-to-back hot sessions:
- Nov 5: 9–2 ATS (82%)
- 3-Day Trend: 66%
- 7-Day Trend: 64.7%
That’s a clear bullish stretch, but the long-term data shows balance. The market typically corrects after these runs, meaning value on underdogs could return soon — especially with inflated point spreads heading into the weekend slate.
Smart play:
Keep riding favorites with strong recent form, but don’t overpay for hype. Once the lines stretch beyond fair market value, dogs will bark again.
🔥 Totals Market (O/U):
Scoring Surge Pushing the Over Back Into Play
YTD Over%: 57.3% — BULLISH
After a short cold stretch in late October, the Overs are back. Offenses are heating up across the board, and tempo-driven matchups are cashing consistently:
- 1-Day: 64% Overs
- 1-Month: 57.3%
- 3-Month: 57.3%
With shooting efficiency rising and defensive rotations still lagging for some clubs, the market is leaning toward higher-scoring games, especially in non-conference matchups and back-to-back spots.
Sharp read:
Books will keep adjusting totals upward, but Overs still carry value where pace + offensive depth meet defensive fatigue.
Think matchups like Indiana–Atlanta, Dallas–Sacramento, and Milwaukee–Golden State.
🧠 Market Psychology Snapshot
| Category | Trend | Rating | Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| SU Favorites | Bullish | 71.4% | Top teams are dominating nightly |
| ATS Favorites | Bullish short-term | 51.8% | Chalk streak active, correction incoming |
| Totals | Bullish | 57.3% | Overs gaining traction league-wide |
Right now, bettors are chasing momentum — and it’s actually working. The challenge will come when the market over-corrects and starts shading too heavily toward chalk and Overs.
✅ Betting Blueprint for November 6, 2025
- Ride favorites with defensive consistency (Denver, Boston, Minnesota).
- Look for situational value on dogs where the line’s overinflated due to recency bias.
- Target Overs in up-tempo games featuring at least one team ranked top-10 in pace or offensive efficiency.
- Avoid lazy Unders — they’re getting punished by teams that can score in waves.
🏁 Final Word
The NBA market is hot for favorites and Overs — a dream stretch for public bettors, but one that never lasts forever. The pros know how to pivot: ride the wave while it’s strong, then cash out before the market turns.
Right now, the path to profit is simple:
Bet the right chalk, back the right pace, and avoid emotion.
Stay ahead of the curve and follow every SBI update and Raymond Report matchup breakdown at ATSstats.com — where data meets discipline, and bankrolls grow one trend at a time. 🧠🏀💰
