NBA SBI Market Pulse – Thursday, November 6, 2025

Favorites on fire. Totals trending up. Chalk bettors cashing in. The NBA market is officially in “BULLISH” mode.

The Sports Betting Index (SBI) from ATSstats.com is painting a clear picture of dominance from favorites, consistency from Overs, and a short-term heater for bettors who trust elite teams to get it done both straight-up and against the number.

Let’s dissect the data and see how the betting market is behaving across all three major fronts — SU (straight-up), ATS (against the spread), and O/U (totals).

📈 Straight-Up (SU):

Favorites Are Owning the Market

YTD Favorites SU: 71.4% — BULLISH

This is no fluke. The chalk wave is here, and it’s real.

Favorites are not only winning; they’re doing it consistently across all time frames:

• 1-Day: 73%
• 3-Day: 74.3%
• 7-Day: 71.9%
• 1-Month: 71.4%

The NBA’s elite are asserting early-season dominance. Bettors who have stuck with power teams like Boston, Denver, Milwaukee, and Oklahoma City are riding a profitable streak.

Key takeaway:
Favorites are not just winning, they’re winning comfortably. If you’re fading chalk in this market, you’re swimming upstream against a very strong current.

💸 Against the Spread (ATS):

Favorites Heating Up, But Balance Still Looms

YTD Favorites ATS: 51.8% — NEUTRAL

Favorites have taken control of the short-term ATS market with back-to-back hot sessions:

• Nov 5: 9–2 ATS (82%)
• 3-Day Trend: 66%
• 7-Day Trend: 64.7%

That’s a clear bullish stretch, but the long-term data shows balance. The market typically corrects after these runs, meaning value on underdogs could return soon — especially with inflated point spreads heading into the weekend slate.

Smart play:
Keep riding favorites with strong recent form, but don’t overpay for hype. Once the lines stretch beyond fair market value, dogs will bark again.

🔥 Totals Market (O/U):

Scoring Surge Pushing the Over Back Into Play

YTD Over%: 57.3% — BULLISH

After a short cold stretch in late October, the Overs are back. Offenses are heating up across the board, and tempo-driven matchups are cashing consistently:

• 1-Day: 64% Overs
• 1-Month: 57.3%
• 3-Month: 57.3%

With shooting efficiency rising and defensive rotations still lagging for some clubs, the market is leaning toward higher-scoring games, especially in non-conference matchups and back-to-back spots.

Sharp read:
Books will keep adjusting totals upward, but Overs still carry value where pace + offensive depth meet defensive fatigue.

Think matchups like Indiana–Atlanta, Dallas–Sacramento, and Milwaukee–Golden State.

🧠 Market Psychology Snapshot

Right now, bettors are chasing momentum — and it’s actually working. The challenge will come when the market over-corrects and starts shading too heavily toward chalk and Overs.

✅ Betting Blueprint for November 6, 2025

• Ride favorites with defensive consistency (Denver, Boston, Minnesota).
• Look for situational value on dogs where the line’s overinflated due to recency bias.
• Target Overs in up-tempo games featuring at least one team ranked top-10 in pace or offensive efficiency.
• Avoid lazy Unders — they’re getting punished by teams that can score in waves.

🏁 Final Word

The NBA market is hot for favorites and Overs — a dream stretch for public bettors, but one that never lasts forever. The pros know how to pivot: ride the wave while it’s strong, then cash out before the market turns.

Right now, the path to profit is simple:
Bet the right chalk, back the right pace, and avoid emotion.

Stay ahead of the curve and follow every SBI update and Raymond Report matchup breakdown at ATSstats.com — where data meets discipline, and bankrolls grow one trend at a time. 🧠🏀💰