Favorites on fire. Totals trending up. Chalk bettors cashing in. The NBA market is officially in “BULLISH” mode.
The Sports Betting Index (SBI) from ATSstats.com is painting a clear picture of dominance from favorites, consistency from Overs, and a short-term heater for bettors who trust elite teams to get it done both straight-up and against the number.
Let’s dissect the data and see how the betting market is behaving across all three major fronts — SU (straight-up), ATS (against the spread), and O/U (totals).
Favorites Are Owning the Market
YTD Favorites SU: 71.4% — BULLISH
This is no fluke. The chalk wave is here, and it’s real.
Favorites are not only winning; they’re doing it consistently across all time frames:
The NBA’s elite are asserting early-season dominance. Bettors who have stuck with power teams like Boston, Denver, Milwaukee, and Oklahoma City are riding a profitable streak.
Key takeaway:
Favorites are not just winning, they’re winning comfortably. If you’re fading chalk in this market, you’re swimming upstream against a very strong current.
Favorites Heating Up, But Balance Still Looms
YTD Favorites ATS: 51.8% — NEUTRAL
Favorites have taken control of the short-term ATS market with back-to-back hot sessions:
That’s a clear bullish stretch, but the long-term data shows balance. The market typically corrects after these runs, meaning value on underdogs could return soon — especially with inflated point spreads heading into the weekend slate.
Smart play:
Keep riding favorites with strong recent form, but don’t overpay for hype. Once the lines stretch beyond fair market value, dogs will bark again.
Scoring Surge Pushing the Over Back Into Play
YTD Over%: 57.3% — BULLISH
After a short cold stretch in late October, the Overs are back. Offenses are heating up across the board, and tempo-driven matchups are cashing consistently:
With shooting efficiency rising and defensive rotations still lagging for some clubs, the market is leaning toward higher-scoring games, especially in non-conference matchups and back-to-back spots.
Sharp read:
Books will keep adjusting totals upward, but Overs still carry value where pace + offensive depth meet defensive fatigue.
Think matchups like Indiana–Atlanta, Dallas–Sacramento, and Milwaukee–Golden State.
| Category | Trend | Rating | Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| SU Favorites | Bullish | 71.4% | Top teams are dominating nightly |
| ATS Favorites | Bullish short-term | 51.8% | Chalk streak active, correction incoming |
| Totals | Bullish | 57.3% | Overs gaining traction league-wide |
Right now, bettors are chasing momentum — and it’s actually working. The challenge will come when the market over-corrects and starts shading too heavily toward chalk and Overs.
The NBA market is hot for favorites and Overs — a dream stretch for public bettors, but one that never lasts forever. The pros know how to pivot: ride the wave while it’s strong, then cash out before the market turns.
Right now, the path to profit is simple:
Bet the right chalk, back the right pace, and avoid emotion.
Stay ahead of the curve and follow every SBI update and Raymond Report matchup breakdown at ATSstats.com — where data meets discipline, and bankrolls grow one trend at a time. 🧠🏀💰
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