GAME IDENTIFIER: SAS @ OKC
DATE: Tuesday, May 26, 2026
LOCATION: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
SERIES STATUS: Tied 2-2
OFFICIAL REPORT: Raymond Report Statistics
RAYMOND REPORT OVERVIEW
Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals shifts back to Oklahoma City with the series deadlocked at 2-2. San Antonio secured a dominant 103-82 victory in Game 4, leveraging a massive double-double from Victor Wembanyama. Oklahoma City returns home seeking to regain the lead, though roster depth is currently compromised by late-season attrition.
| METRIC | SAN ANTONIO SPURS | OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER |
|---|---|---|
| SU RECORD | 54-32 | 59-27 |
| ATS RECORD | 48-38 | 51-35 |
| O/U RECORD | 41-45 | 46-40 |
| C.O.W. (Chance of Winning) | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (SOS) | 0.512 (Rank: 8th) | 0.498 (Rank: 14th) |
| COVI INDICATOR | 0.62 (NEUTRAL) | 0.68 (NEUTRAL) |
SITUATIONAL CONTEXT & TREND ANALYSIS
- SAN ANTONIO SPURS (BULLISH B+):
- Coming off a 21-point victory.
- 1 day of rest.
- 4-1 SU in last 5 road games vs. division opponents.
- Wembanyama: 33 PTS, 14 REB, 5 BLK in Game 4.
- Backcourt Stability: De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper combined for 15 AST in Game 4.
- OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (NEUTRAL B-):
- Returning home after two-game road stint.
- 1 day of rest.
- SGA: High usage rate (38%) expected due to backcourt injuries.
- Jalen Williams (Questionable): Hamstring strain; limited participation in morning shootaround.
- Ajay Mitchell (Out): Calf strain; ruled out for Game 5.
TOP 5 BETTING OPTIONS – MAY 26, 2026
- OKC MONEYLINE (-135): Thunder are 28-6 SU at Paycom Center this season. Home court advantage in Game 5 is statistically significant.
- UNDER 218.5: Defensive intensity has increased over the last three games. 4 of last 5 head-to-head matchups have stayed under the total.
- SAN ANTONIO +3.5: Spurs momentum following Game 4 blowout. Momentum index (Raymond Report) shows 78% retention of ATS performance after 20+ point wins.
- SGA OVER 32.5 POINTS: Necessity-based scoring. With Williams and Mitchell out or limited, SGA’s volume will escalate.
- WEMBANYAMA OVER 12.5 REBOUNDS: Thunder lacks verticality with current rotation. Wembanyama has averaged 13.8 REB over last 4 games.
STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN: LAST 10 HEAD-TO-HEAD
| DATE | MATCHUP | SCORE | SIDE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24/26 | OKC @ SAS | 82-103 | SAS -5.5 | U 220.5 |
| 05/22/26 | OKC @ SAS | 114-110 | OKC +2.0 | O 218.0 |
| 05/20/26 | SAS @ OKC | 98-112 | OKC -4.5 | U 219.5 |
| 05/18/26 | SAS @ OKC | 105-101 | SAS +6.0 | U 222.0 |
| 03/12/26 | SAS @ OKC | 111-125 | OKC -8.0 | O 224.5 |
INJURY REPORT & ROSTER UPDATES
SAN ANTONIO SPURS:
- No significant injuries reported. Roster at 100% health for Western Conference Finals.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER:
- Jalen Williams (F): Hamstring Strain (Questionable). Status will be determined at game-time. Williams provides crucial secondary playmaking.
- Ajay Mitchell (G): Calf Strain (Out). Mitchell’s absence shortens the Thunder rotation, placing higher physical demand on the starting unit.
MARKET ANALYSIS: LINE MOVEMENT & VALUE
The market opened at OKC -4.5 and has seen sharp money push the line toward San Antonio, currently sitting at -3.5. The Value Report indicates a “Fair Market Value” of OKC -2.0, suggesting the current line still holds slight value for the visiting Spurs. San Antonio is currently showing a high 80% Club trend when playing as a road underdog of 3 or more points in the postseason.
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FINAL VERDICT
The data suggests a high-variance Game 5. While Oklahoma City has the superior season-long SU record, San Antonio’s momentum and the injury concerns for the Thunder make the Spurs +3.5 the high-percentage play. The Raymond Report COVI index remains NEUTRAL, but the situational “Bounce Back” trend favors San Antonio covering the spread.
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