NCAAF Betting Preview: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators (09/16/2023)

The NCAA Football season is in full swing, and today’s matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Florida Gators promises to be a thrilling encounter. With the Raymond Report shedding light on statistical insights, let’s dive deep into this game to find the best betting angles.

Game Details

• Date: September 16, 2023
• Time: 19:00:00
• Location: The Swamp!

Team Overview

Tennessee Volunteers:

• Point Spread: -5.5
• MoneyLine: -208
• Season Record:
• Straight Up (SU): 2-0
• Against The Spread (ATS): 1-1-0
• Over/Under (O/U): 1-1-0
• Recent Form:
• Coming off a 13-30 win against Austin Peay
• On a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak

Florida Gators:

• Point Spread: +5.5
• MoneyLine: +182
• Season Record:
• Straight Up (SU): 1-1
• Against The Spread (ATS): 0-2-0
• Over/Under (O/U): 1-1-0
• Recent Form:
• Coming off a 7-49 win against McNeese State
• On a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak, with the last game going under

Raymond Report Insights

• Chances of Winning (C.O.W):
• Tennessee boasts a commanding 75% chance to secure a win, compared to Florida’s 40%.
• Chances of Covering (C.O.C):
• Tennessee has a 50% chance, while the Gators have a more certain 100% likelihood to cover the spread.
• Chances Game Going OVER (C.O.G.O):
• The forecast predicts a total score of around 59.15, which leans toward an OVER on the 56.5 game total. Both teams have a 50% chance for this outcome.
• Market Spread Value (MSV):
• Tennessee has an MSV of -18.92 while Florida stands at -14.5. This indicates that the market might be undervaluing Tennessee a bit.
• Psychological Value Index (PVI):
• Tennessee is currently “BULLISH” after coming off a 3-game winning streak, indicating high confidence.
• Florida, on the other hand, has a “NEUTRAL” stance, indicating a more unpredictable performance.

Trends to Consider:

Tennessee Volunteers:

• When playing as a Road team and a favorite, especially after an ATS loss, their ATS record is 8-4-0 and SU is 11-1. This means they have a strong history of bouncing back after an ATS loss.

Florida Gators:

• Historically, when playing as a Home team and coming off 1 over, their ATS record is a less promising 4-10-0, but their SU record is 12-2. This means while they’ve won the games, they often haven’t covered the spread.

Final Thoughts:

Given the insights from the Raymond Report and historical trends, the Tennessee Volunteers seem to have the upper hand in this matchup. Their solid performance this season combined with their past resilience after ATS losses makes them a solid pick.

However, Florida’s 100% C.O.C is something bettors should not overlook. While they may not win outright, they have a strong chance to cover the spread.

Picks:

• Moneyline: Tennessee Volunteers (-208)
• Point Spread: If you’re looking for a safer bet, consider Florida Gators +5.5 given their high C.O.C.
• Over/Under: Lean towards the OVER 56.5 given the predicted total score.

Please note that all bets involve risk. Make sure to bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

Happy Betting!