NCAAF Week 4 Betting Capsules – ATS Report (Part 1)

Rice Owls (-2.5) vs Charlotte 49ers (O/U 42.5)

Rice (2-1) comes in off a blowout loss to Houston, but the Owls have extra rest (11 days) and a 50% C.O.W. Charlotte (0-2) has looked lifeless, averaging just 11.5 PPG. Both teams are 0-2 to the Under, but with 100% C.O.G.O., the Over 42.5 may see some action. Value Index leans Rice at -2.5, but don’t expect fireworks.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Oklahoma State Cowboys (-13.5, O/U 55)

Tulsa (1-2) got hammered by Navy and now walks into Stillwater against an angry OSU team embarrassed 69-3 by Oregon. Tulsa’s defense is giving up 37 PPG, while OSU has the higher C.O.W (65%). Market says OSU should rebound big. Cowboys are the play, but bettors beware of Tulsa backdoor covers in garbage time.

Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights (O/U 45.5)

Classic Big Ten grinder. Iowa (2-1) leans Under (0-3 O/U) with defense-first football. Rutgers is unbeaten (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS), but the schedule has been soft. C.O.W favors Iowa slightly (55.8% vs 41.4%). Unders are cashing (0-3 Iowa, 3-0 Rutgers), making 45.5 the key number. Sharp money likely heads Under again.

SMU Mustangs vs TCU Horned Frogs (-6.5, O/U 64)

The “Battle for the Iron Skillet.” SMU (2-1) hasn’t been kind to bettors (0-3 ATS). TCU (1-0) blasted UNC and enters with momentum. Both teams carry neutral to bullish indicators, but C.O.G.O is just 34% — signaling value on the Under despite a total in the 60s. Lean: TCU -6.5, Under 64.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Utah Utes (-2.5, O/U 58)

Sneaky good matchup. Texas Tech (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) is red hot, while Utah (2-0) has been equally efficient. Both teams are Bullish in the Raymond Report cycles. With Tech averaging 30 PPG and Utah at 28, this total is sharp at 58. Market leans Utah at home, but the dog Red Raiders are the trendy pick. Tough call — watch line movement.

UNLV Rebels (-2.5) vs Miami (OH) RedHawks (O/U 48.5)

UNLV (3-0) has been undervalued in the market, covering twice and winning outright at UCLA. Miami (OH) is 0-2, giving up 34 PPG. UNLV is Bullish, Miami is Bearish — that’s usually checkmate in Raymond Report terms. Rebels are the right side -2.5.

Maryland Terrapins vs Wisconsin Badgers (-9.5, O/U 43.5)

Maryland (3-0) sneaks in unbeaten, but Wisconsin (2-1) brings the muscle with a top 20 defense. The Badgers are Bullish, while Maryland’s V.I. leans negative. Wisconsin’s games have skewed Under (0-2 O/U), while Maryland has gone Over in 2 of 3. Line feels heavy at -9.5, but sharp money favors Wisconsin defense at home.

North Texas Mean Green (-2.5) vs Army Black Knights (O/U 52.5)

North Texas (3-0, 3-0 ATS) has been a market darling, torching Washington State last week. Army (1-1) pulled a tight upset of Kansas State. Both teams play contrasting styles: UNT is explosive, Army controls tempo. Totals market is tricky: UNT trends Over, Army is split. Expect a line battle between “pace vs grind.” Lean: UNT momentum -2.5.

Arkansas Razorbacks (-7) vs Memphis Tigers (O/U 63)

Arkansas (2-1) took a tough loss to Ole Miss but still owns the higher C.O.W (78%). Memphis (3-0) has cashed 3 straight ATS with a stingy defense. Market splits here: Arkansas has the talent edge, but Memphis is trending Bullish in cycles. With both teams Over-friendly, 63 could be a live total. Lean: Over.

Bowling Green Falcons vs Louisville Cardinals (-25.5, O/U 51.5)

Mismatch city. Louisville (2-0) owns a 96% C.O.W and comes in Bullish after smashing James Madison. Bowling Green (1-1) can’t keep up offensively, averaging just 16.5 PPG. At -25.5, it’s chalk or pass — but Louisville has been rolling. Cards cover if they stay focused, but backdoor is live with that many points.