Straight-Up (SU) Favorites Dominate – But Not Early
Six weeks into the 2025 NFL season, the favorites are finally flexing their muscle after a rollercoaster start. According to the Raymond Report Sports Betting Index (SBI):
- Week 6 SU Favorites: 73.3% (Bullish)
- YTD SU Favorites: 57.8% (Bullish)
After underdogs stole the show in Week 5 (only 35.7% of favorites won outright), the chalk came roaring back in Week 6, winning 11 of 12 Sunday games. That surge pushed the year-to-date SU favorite win rate into “Bullish” territory.
But bettors beware — while favorites are winning straight up, they’re not always covering (we’ll get to that below).
💸 Against the Spread (ATS): Dogs Still Have Bark
While favorites got their SU groove back, the ATS market remains dog-friendly overall.
| Category | ATS Favorites | ATS Underdogs |
|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| YTD | 58% | 41% |
The overall SBI rating for ATS favorites is Bullish, but the devil is in the details:
- Big favorites (-7.0 to -9.5): Only 15.38% ATS
- Double-digit favorites (-10 or more): 20% ATS
- Small favorites (-3.5 to -6.5): Just 32.35% ATS
So, while Week 6 made it look like favorites were back in style, that’s more the exception than the rule. Through six weeks, underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range have covered at an eye-popping 76% clip (32-13-0 ATS combined).
📊 Translation: “Public teams” are winning SU, but the smart money is still leaning toward value dogs against inflated lines.
🔥 Over/Under Market: Unders Rule the Roost
If you’ve been betting Unders, you’ve been cashing.
- Week 6 Totals: 35.7% Over (Bearish)
- YTD Totals: 49.6% Over / 50.4% Under (Neutral overall)
But that “neutral” YTD number hides the trend. After a hot run of Overs in Week 5 (64%), the books adjusted — and the scoring cooled fast.
The Under hit in 9 of 13 games in Week 6, continuing a pattern of regression as defensive schemes tightened and totals stayed inflated. Games with totals between 41.5 and 47 points have gone Under 57% of the time.
So far, the books are winning the totals war — and bettors who mindlessly chase Overs have been punished.
🏠 Home vs. Road: The House Edge Is Real
The home field edge is back — at least for bettors.
| Category | SU % | ATS % | O/U % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 56.5% | 63.4% | 48.4% |
| Road Teams | 43.5% | 35.5% | 48.4% |
Home underdogs, a longtime Raymond Report favorite, are 64% ATS overall — a huge edge early in the season. Even better, home dogs of +7 or more are a blistering 11-1 ATS (91.7%) through six weeks.
When the crowd’s against you — it’s paying to bark back.
📈 Raymond Report Summary (Week 1–6)
| Market | Trend | SBI Rating | Betting Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|
| SU Favorites | 57.8% | Bullish | Chalk finally paying off |
| ATS Favorites | 58% | Bullish | But only small favorites are reliable |
| Overs | 49.6% | Neutral | Market adjusting, Unders cashing |
| Underdogs (ATS) | 63.4% (Home) | Bullish | Best value on board |
| Double-Digit Dogs | 80% ATS | Extremely Bullish | Keep barking |
🎯 The Raymond Report Takeaway
After six weeks, the books and bettors are in a chess match:
- Favorites win, but underdogs cover.
- Overs tease, but Unders deliver.
- Home dogs continue to be golden retrievers for bankrolls.
The SBI line says it all: the market is stabilizing, but the best value remains in finding contrarian edges — not chasing shiny records. If you’re picking sides without tracking market cycles, you’re playing checkers while the sharps are playing chess.
💰 Want More Data Like This?
Check out the Raymond Report NFL Sports Betting Index daily at
👉 www.ATSstats.com
Your edge starts where the market trends meet the money.
