Categories: NFL

NFL Betting Report – Through 6 Weeks of the 2025 Season

 

Straight-Up (SU) Favorites Dominate – But Not Early

Six weeks into the 2025 NFL season, the favorites are finally flexing their muscle after a rollercoaster start. According to the Raymond Report Sports Betting Index (SBI):

  • Week 6 SU Favorites: 73.3% (Bullish)
  • YTD SU Favorites: 57.8% (Bullish)

After underdogs stole the show in Week 5 (only 35.7% of favorites won outright), the chalk came roaring back in Week 6, winning 11 of 12 Sunday games. That surge pushed the year-to-date SU favorite win rate into “Bullish” territory.

But bettors beware — while favorites are winning straight up, they’re not always covering (we’ll get to that below).


💸 Against the Spread (ATS): Dogs Still Have Bark

While favorites got their SU groove back, the ATS market remains dog-friendly overall.

Category ATS Favorites ATS Underdogs
Week 6 66.7% 33.3%
YTD 58% 41%

The overall SBI rating for ATS favorites is Bullish, but the devil is in the details:

  • Big favorites (-7.0 to -9.5): Only 15.38% ATS
  • Double-digit favorites (-10 or more): 20% ATS
  • Small favorites (-3.5 to -6.5): Just 32.35% ATS

So, while Week 6 made it look like favorites were back in style, that’s more the exception than the rule. Through six weeks, underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range have covered at an eye-popping 76% clip (32-13-0 ATS combined).

📊 Translation: “Public teams” are winning SU, but the smart money is still leaning toward value dogs against inflated lines.


🔥 Over/Under Market: Unders Rule the Roost

If you’ve been betting Unders, you’ve been cashing.

  • Week 6 Totals: 35.7% Over (Bearish)
  • YTD Totals: 49.6% Over / 50.4% Under (Neutral overall)

But that “neutral” YTD number hides the trend. After a hot run of Overs in Week 5 (64%), the books adjusted — and the scoring cooled fast.

The Under hit in 9 of 13 games in Week 6, continuing a pattern of regression as defensive schemes tightened and totals stayed inflated. Games with totals between 41.5 and 47 points have gone Under 57% of the time.

So far, the books are winning the totals war — and bettors who mindlessly chase Overs have been punished.


🏠 Home vs. Road: The House Edge Is Real

The home field edge is back — at least for bettors.

Category SU % ATS % O/U %
Home Teams 56.5% 63.4% 48.4%
Road Teams 43.5% 35.5% 48.4%

Home underdogs, a longtime Raymond Report favorite, are 64% ATS overall — a huge edge early in the season. Even better, home dogs of +7 or more are a blistering 11-1 ATS (91.7%) through six weeks.

When the crowd’s against you — it’s paying to bark back.


📈 Raymond Report Summary (Week 1–6)

Market Trend SBI Rating Betting Takeaway
SU Favorites 57.8% Bullish Chalk finally paying off
ATS Favorites 58% Bullish But only small favorites are reliable
Overs 49.6% Neutral Market adjusting, Unders cashing
Underdogs (ATS) 63.4% (Home) Bullish Best value on board
Double-Digit Dogs 80% ATS Extremely Bullish Keep barking

🎯 The Raymond Report Takeaway

After six weeks, the books and bettors are in a chess match:

  • Favorites win, but underdogs cover.
  • Overs tease, but Unders deliver.
  • Home dogs continue to be golden retrievers for bankrolls.

The SBI line says it all: the market is stabilizing, but the best value remains in finding contrarian edges — not chasing shiny records. If you’re picking sides without tracking market cycles, you’re playing checkers while the sharps are playing chess.


💰 Want More Data Like This?

Check out the Raymond Report NFL Sports Betting Index daily at
👉 www.ATSstats.com

Your edge starts where the market trends meet the money.


 

Ron Raymond

Ron Raymond is a well-known sports handicapper who runs ATS Stats and the Raymond REPORT. He has over 21 years of experience in the industry and provides expert analysis and predictions for various sports, including football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.

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