Six weeks into the 2025 NFL season, the favorites are finally flexing their muscle after a rollercoaster start. According to the Raymond Report Sports Betting Index (SBI):
After underdogs stole the show in Week 5 (only 35.7% of favorites won outright), the chalk came roaring back in Week 6, winning 11 of 12 Sunday games. That surge pushed the year-to-date SU favorite win rate into “Bullish” territory.
But bettors beware — while favorites are winning straight up, they’re not always covering (we’ll get to that below).
While favorites got their SU groove back, the ATS market remains dog-friendly overall.
Category | ATS Favorites | ATS Underdogs |
---|---|---|
Week 6 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
YTD | 58% | 41% |
The overall SBI rating for ATS favorites is Bullish, but the devil is in the details:
So, while Week 6 made it look like favorites were back in style, that’s more the exception than the rule. Through six weeks, underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range have covered at an eye-popping 76% clip (32-13-0 ATS combined).
📊 Translation: “Public teams” are winning SU, but the smart money is still leaning toward value dogs against inflated lines.
If you’ve been betting Unders, you’ve been cashing.
But that “neutral” YTD number hides the trend. After a hot run of Overs in Week 5 (64%), the books adjusted — and the scoring cooled fast.
The Under hit in 9 of 13 games in Week 6, continuing a pattern of regression as defensive schemes tightened and totals stayed inflated. Games with totals between 41.5 and 47 points have gone Under 57% of the time.
So far, the books are winning the totals war — and bettors who mindlessly chase Overs have been punished.
The home field edge is back — at least for bettors.
Category | SU % | ATS % | O/U % |
---|---|---|---|
Home Teams | 56.5% | 63.4% | 48.4% |
Road Teams | 43.5% | 35.5% | 48.4% |
Home underdogs, a longtime Raymond Report favorite, are 64% ATS overall — a huge edge early in the season. Even better, home dogs of +7 or more are a blistering 11-1 ATS (91.7%) through six weeks.
When the crowd’s against you — it’s paying to bark back.
Market | Trend | SBI Rating | Betting Takeaway |
---|---|---|---|
SU Favorites | 57.8% | Bullish | Chalk finally paying off |
ATS Favorites | 58% | Bullish | But only small favorites are reliable |
Overs | 49.6% | Neutral | Market adjusting, Unders cashing |
Underdogs (ATS) | 63.4% (Home) | Bullish | Best value on board |
Double-Digit Dogs | 80% ATS | Extremely Bullish | Keep barking |
After six weeks, the books and bettors are in a chess match:
The SBI line says it all: the market is stabilizing, but the best value remains in finding contrarian edges — not chasing shiny records. If you’re picking sides without tracking market cycles, you’re playing checkers while the sharps are playing chess.
Check out the Raymond Report NFL Sports Betting Index daily at
👉 www.ATSstats.com
Your edge starts where the market trends meet the money.
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