NFL Market Thermometer: Hot, Cold, and Stuck-in-the-Middle
San Francisco 49ers players celebrate after cornerback Richard Sherman, bottom center, intercepted a pass against the Green Bay Packers during the second half of the NFL NFC Championship football game Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020, in Santa Clara, Calif. The 49ers won 37-20 to advance to Super Bowl 54 against the Kansas City Chiefs. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
Powered by the Raymond Report Strength-of-Schedule and Power Rating matrices
Markets move fast in the NFL. The Raymond Report filters the noise with SOS, recent-form splits, and Power Ratings to identify where value is building and where bankrolls go to die. Here is the current read on hot, neutral, and cold teams based on your dataset.
🔥 Hot Teams: Bullish cycles with real substance
New England Patriots
Record/PR: 7-2, PR 0.57
Trend: 3-0 last 3; 6-1 last 7, PR 0.64
SOS note: Easier recent slate, but they handled business.
Betting angle: 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS on the road. Translation: traveling cash machine.
Denver Broncos
Record/PR: 7-2, PR 0.60
Trend: 3-0 last 3; 6-1 last 7, PR 0.62
SOS note: Not a gauntlet, still elite form.
Betting angle: 4-0 SU at home, 3-1 ATS at home. Confidence index screaming green.
Indianapolis Colts
Record/PR: 7-2, PR 0.61
Trend: 2-1 last 3; 5-2 last 7, PR 0.54
SOS note: Manageable.
Betting angle: 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS at home. Sharp money respects this floor.
Seattle Seahawks
Record/PR: 6-2, PR 0.62
Trend: 3-0 last 3; 6-1 last 7, PR 0.64
SOS note: Recent path was friendly, but they crushed it.
Betting angle: 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS on the road. Road warriors, bankroll buddies.
Los Angeles Rams
Record/PR: 6-2, PR 0.61
Trend: 3-0 last 3, PR 0.67
Betting angle: 4-0 ATS at home. Books are slow to adjust to the ramp-up.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record/PR: 6-2, PR 0.61
Trend: 2-1 last 3; 5-2 last 7, PR 0.61
Betting angle: 4-1 ATS on the road. When they pack a bag, you pack a ticket.
Philadelphia Eagles
Record/PR: 6-2, PR 0.63
Trend: 2-1 last 3; 5-2 last 7, PR 0.64
SOS note: Last-3 SOS was soft. Still grading A-tier.
Betting angle: Balanced 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS overall. Pick your spots, especially when the public cools.
Buffalo Bills
Record/PR: 6-2, PR 0.57
Trend: 2-1 last 3; 5-2 last 7, PR 0.59
SOS note: Easier schedule, but efficiency is up.
Betting angle: 4-1 SU at home, 4-1 ATS at home. Orchard Park premium applies.
Market read: ATS heat outpaces SU profile. Beware regression, not an automatic fade.
❄️ Cold Teams: Bearish cycles and bankroll hazards
Tennessee Titans
Record/PR: 1-8, PR 0.36; 0-4 last 4 on the road, 0-5 road ATS last 7 window.
Market read: Numbers will look tempting. That is the trap.
New Orleans Saints
Record/PR: 1-8, PR 0.37; 0-3 last 3 with heavy SOS.
Market read: The schedule is tough, the execution is tougher to trust.
New York Jets
Record/PR: 1-7, PR 0.34; 0-5 SU at home.
Market read: Until the offense clears basic thresholds, it is fade or pass.
Miami Dolphins
Record/PR: 2-7, PR 0.37; 1-4 on the road and 1-4 ATS road in the long window.
Market read: Perception still lags reality. Do not pay 2023 prices for 2025 production.
New York Giants
Record/PR: 2-7, PR 0.39; 0-5 road SU, 1-4 road ATS last 7 window.
Market read: Lines look “short” for a reason.
Las Vegas Raiders
Record/PR: 2-6, PR 0.40; 1-6 last 7 window.
Market read: Little signal of a sustained bounce.
Cleveland Browns
Record/PR: 2-6, PR 0.39; 0-4 last 7 window.
Market read: Defense cannot carry an offense that stalls this often.
Cincinnati Bengals
Record/PR: 3-6, PR 0.44; 1-6 last 7, PR 0.36.
Market read: Name recognition costs juice. Let others pay it.
Atlanta Falcons, Washington Commanders, Dallas Cowboys
Shared theme: 0-3 last 3 and sub-0.45 PR last-7 windows.
Market read: Avoid “must-win” narratives. Must-win teams often must-cover, and they usually do not.
ATS snapshots that matter
Patriots: 4-0 ATS road.
Seahawks: 4-0 ATS road.
Rams: 4-0 ATS home.
Colts: 5-0 ATS home.
Bears: 5-2-1 ATS overall, but soft SOS says watch the price.
Vikings: 7-1 ATS overall with a .500 SU record. Line value has been the edge, not dominance.
How to bet this board
Buy strength that the market still prices like “good, not great.” Seahawks, Colts, Rams, Bucs fit that bill when lines stay reasonable.
Neutral teams are matchup plays. 49ers, Lions, Chargers, Jags, Steelers require number discipline and situational filters.
Cold teams are not “due.” Jets, Titans, Saints, Giants, Raiders, Browns, Bengals have bearish cycles for a reason. Take plus points only with strong SOS or injury mismatches to justify it.
Final Word
The fastest way to separate pros from tourists is how they handle streaks. Pros buy form before the public catches on and sell hype before the crash. Use the Raymond Report’s SOS and Power Ratings to time entries, not emotions.
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Ron Raymond
Ron Raymond is a well-known sports handicapper who runs ATS Stats and the Raymond REPORT. He has over 21 years of experience in the industry and provides expert analysis and predictions for various sports, including football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.