NFL Sunday Night Preview (10/15/2023): New York Giants at Buffalo Bills

Matchup:
New York Giants (+15.5) at Buffalo Bills (-15.5)
Total: 43.5

Date: 2023-10-15
Time: 20:20:00

Recent Performances:

• New York Giants: Coming off a stinging 31-16 loss to the Miami Dolphins, the Giants have been underperforming this season with a 1-4 straight-up record. Their last five games have seen them go 0-5 against the spread (ATS) and 1-4 on over/under (O/U).
• Buffalo Bills: The Bills also had a setback, losing 25-20 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Their season record stands a bit better at 3-2 straight-up, 3-2 ATS, and 2-3 O/U.

Key Stats:

• Chances of Winning (C.O.W): Giants at 4.92% while the Bills have a dominant 95.08%.
• Chances of Covering (C.O.C): Giants stand at 100%, whereas the Bills have a 37% chance.
• Chances Game Going OVER (C.O.G.O): Both teams have a 77% chance.
• Market Spread Value (MSV): Giants at 20.25 and Bills at -15.5.
• Psychological Value Index (PVI): Giants are bearish with a 0-3 record in their last three games, while the Bills maintain a neutral stance with a 2-1 record.

Situational Stats:

• Giants: Their away record stands at 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, and 1-2 O/U. Their recent form has been a concern, with the team losing three straight games and scoring 17 or less in their last outing. They are also coming off a loss against an AFC East opponent and a 3-game losing streak.
• Bills: With a home record of 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, and 2-1 O/U, the Bills are looking strong. They are coming off a loss against an AFC South opponent and a game where they scored 20 points or less.

Trends to Consider:

• The Giants have historically performed well as a road underdog during weeks 4 to 8, especially when coming off back-to-back SU losses. 16-4-1 ATS, 9-11 SU and 8-12-1 (O/U/P).
• The Bills, when playing as a favorite of -10.0 or more with 6 days off, have a strong ATS and SU record, especially if they scored 20 points or less in their last game. 7-3-0 ATS, 9-1 SU, and 7-3-0 (O/U/P)>

Wrap up:
While the Bills are the clear favorites and have been performing better this season, the Giants have some interesting trends backing them, especially as road underdogs. It promises to be an exciting matchup with both teams looking to bounce back from their recent losses.

Forecast: Buffalo 30.59 New York Giants 14.13