NFL Week 11 Game of the Week Preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

Date: Sunday, November 17, 2024
Time: 5:25 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, New York
Line: Buffalo -2 | Kansas City +2
Total: 44.5

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Raymond Report Forecast

Projected Score:

• Buffalo Bills: 23.54
• Kansas City Chiefs: 21.95

Over/Under Projection: 45.49 Total Points

Key Metrics:

• C.O.W. (Chances of Winning):
  • Buffalo: 55.71%
  • Kansas City: 44.29%
• C.O.C. (Chances of Covering the Spread):
  • Buffalo: 37%
  • Kansas City: 72%
• C.O.G.O. (Chances of Game Going Over): 38%, leaning toward the Under.

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Team Trends & Situational Insights

Kansas City Chiefs (+2)

• Record: 9-0 (5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U)
• Last Game: Narrow 16-14 win over the Broncos, failing to cover as favorites.
• Road Warriors: The Chiefs are 4-0 on the road this season and 11-1 SU as an away team before a non-conference game in the past five years.
• Defensive Streak: KC has held opponents to an average of 17.8 points in their last five games.
• Key Trend: Kansas City is 9-0 SU in their last nine games, but they’ve failed to cover the spread in their last three.

Buffalo Bills (-2)

• Record: 8-2 (6-4 ATS, 7-3 O/U)
• Last Game: Convincing 30-20 win over the Colts, covering as road favorites.
• Home Dominance: Buffalo is 4-0 at home, scoring an average of 36.25 points in those contests.
• Key Trend: The Bills are 12-2 SU when playing at home as a favorite in November and coming off back-to-back SU wins.
• Momentum: Buffalo is on a five-game winning streak, fueled by their high-powered offense and a defense that has limited opponents to 19 points per game over the last three contests.

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Key Matchups

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) vs. Buffalo Defense

Mahomes will look to exploit Buffalo’s secondary, but he’ll face consistent pressure from a Bills defensive line that has 25 sacks on the season. The Chiefs’ offensive line must hold up to give Mahomes time to connect with Travis Kelce and the rest of his receiving corps.

Josh Allen (Bills) vs. Chiefs Defense

Allen has been dynamic at home, using his arm and legs to dissect defenses. Kansas City’s top-five defense will need to contain Allen in the pocket and limit his explosive plays, especially on third down.

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Over/Under Trends

• Kansas City: The Chiefs have hit the Under in four of their last five games, largely due to their elite defense.
• Buffalo: The Bills have gone Over in four of their last five games, driven by their offensive firepower.
• Combined C.O.G.O.: At 38%, the data suggests a play on the Under 44.5.

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Betting Recommendations

1. Spread Play:
   • Kansas City has shown resilience on the road and historically performs well as underdogs in high-stakes games. With 72% C.O.C., lean toward Kansas City +2.
2. Over/Under:
   • Given Kansas City’s defensive dominance and Buffalo’s recent defensive form, the Under 44.5 appears to be the stronger play.
3. Moneyline:
   • Kansas City at +121 provides value for those betting on the Chiefs to extend their winning streak, but Buffalo’s home-field advantage is a significant factor.

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Prediction

This matchup will be a tightly contested battle between two elite teams. While Buffalo’s offense is firing on all cylinders, Kansas City’s ability to thrive in tough road environments and their defensive strength give them the edge in a low-scoring game.

Final Score Prediction: Kansas City 21, Buffalo 20
Best Bet: Under 44.5 and Kansas City +2