NFL Week 12 Scoring Matchups Breakdown (11/21/24)

With Week 12 of the NFL season upon us, analyzing team performance in scoring and defensive matchups can reveal valuable betting opportunities. Using Points Per Game For (PPF) and Points Per Game Against (PPA), let’s identify where the value might lie this week.

High-Scoring Potential Matchups

1. Detroit Lions (1) vs. Green Bay Packers (8)
   • Lions PPF: 33.6 (Rank 1)
   • Packers PPA: 21.3 (Rank 10)
   • Analysis: Detroit’s explosive offense is the league’s best, particularly over the past three games (34 PPG). Green Bay’s middling defense may struggle to contain Jared Goff and company. The Lions’ defense (17.7 PPA) has also tightened up recently, which could make the Packers’ task harder.
   • Betting Value: Favor Detroit on the spread or consider the under, depending on the total line.
2. Baltimore Ravens (2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (18)
   • Ravens PPF: 30.36 (Rank 2)
   • Chargers PPA: 14.5 (Rank 1)
   • Analysis: This matchup pits Baltimore’s high-octane offense against the league’s stingiest defense over the last three games. The Chargers’ offensive output has surged recently (29.33 PPG in L3G), so the total could see significant movement.
   • Betting Value: Look for value on the over or Chargers +points if the Ravens’ defense softens.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (7) vs. Buffalo Bills (Unranked)
   • Eagles PPF: 25.9 (Rank 7), Last 3 Games: 29.33
   • Eagles PPA: 17.9 (Rank 6), Last 3 Games: 15.67
   • Analysis: Philadelphia’s offense is hitting its stride, and their defense has been strong recently. With Buffalo’s inconsistency, the Eagles are well-positioned to extend their dominance.
   • Betting Value: Eagles on the spread or team total over.

Low-Scoring Matchups

1. Denver Broncos (20) vs. Cleveland Browns (31)
   • Broncos PPF: 21.36 (Rank 20)
   • Browns PPA: 16.2 (Rank 2)
   • Analysis: Cleveland’s elite defense will face Denver’s modest offense. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s offense struggles mightily, ranking 31st in PPF. Expect a grind-it-out game with a strong chance for the under.
   • Betting Value: Take the under on total points.
2. New England Patriots (30) vs. New York Giants (32)
   • Patriots PPF: 16.55 (Rank 30)
   • Giants PPF: 15.6 (Rank 32)
   • Analysis: Two of the league’s worst offenses clash in this matchup. The Patriots’ recent defensive performance (22.55 PPA) is marginally better than the Giants’ (22.2 PPA).
   • Betting Value: Expect a low-scoring affair. Target the under or fade both teams in player props.

Shootout Potential

1. Washington Commanders (4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (25)
   • Commanders PPF: 28 (Rank 4)
   • Cowboys PPA: 29.3 (Rank 31)
   • Analysis: Washington’s offense is red-hot, while Dallas struggles defensively, allowing nearly 30 PPG in their last three games. Both teams could trade scores in what could be a high-scoring affair.
   • Betting Value: Over on total points.
2. Arizona Cardinals (13) vs. Los Angeles Rams (21)
   • Cardinals PPF: 23.8 (Rank 13)
   • Rams PPF: 21.3 (Rank 21)
   • Analysis: Arizona’s recent surge in offense (29.33 PPG in L3G) and the Rams’ mediocre defense could combine for a higher-than-expected total.
   • Betting Value: Look for the over.

Defensive Clashes

1. Minnesota Vikings (10) vs. Chicago Bears (22)
   • Vikings PPA: 17 (Rank 4)
   • Bears PPA: 18.7 (Rank 7)
   • Analysis: Both defenses rank in the top 10, with recent performances highlighting their ability to limit opponents. Expect a slow-paced, defensive battle.
   • Betting Value: Consider the under or a low team total for Chicago.
2. Seattle Seahawks (16) vs. San Francisco 49ers (9)
   • Seahawks PPF: 23 (Rank 16)
   • 49ers PPA: 22.2 (Rank 16)
   • Analysis: Both teams have shown inconsistency on offense, while their defenses remain solid. The 49ers should have the edge, but this could be a relatively low-scoring game.
   • Betting Value: Consider San Francisco on the moneyline or the under.

Best Bets for Week 12

1. Detroit Lions (- Spread): With their league-leading offense, Detroit should control the game against Green Bay.
2. Washington/Dallas (Over): A high-scoring game is likely given both teams’ offensive and defensive trends.
3. Denver/Cleveland (Under): Two strong defenses and poor offenses make this a likely grind.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (- Spread): Philly’s momentum and balanced play give them the edge against Buffalo.
5. Arizona/LA Rams (Over): Expect points in a matchup with two middling defenses.

Stay tuned to ATS STATS for more NFL Week 12 insights!