🔵 Head-to-Head System Trends

New England Patriots (Vrabel era note)

• Road favorite in October: 11-4 ATS | 15-0 SU | 5-10 O/U
  Built under Belichick, but Vrabel’s road DNA fits: disciplined, situational, business trip.

Miami Dolphins

• Underdog vs Los Angeles (Rams/Chargers): 9-4 ATS | 8-5 SU | 2-11 O/U
  When Miami’s catching points vs LA teams, totals tend to sink—Under machine.

Green Bay Packers

• Home, spread -4 to -7.5: 26-11-3 ATS | 32-7-1 SU
• Home favorite, total 44.5–47: 23-15-2 ATS | 32-7-1 SU
  Lambeau sweet spot—market keeps shading mid-range chalk.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit

• Any venue: 7-4 ATS | 9-2 O/U
  When these two collide, fireworks. Scoreboard operator gets cardio.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland

• Home vs Browns: 17-9-1 ATS | 24-3 SU | 14-12-1 O/U
• Home favorite vs AFC North: 13-11-1 ATS | 20-5 SU | 11-13-1 O/U

Dallas Cowboys vs NFC South

• As favorite: 11-8-1 ATS | 16-4 SU | 7-13 O/U

Baltimore Ravens vs NFC West

• Home vs NFC West: 12-9-2 ATS | 19-4 SU | 9-14 O/U

Chiefs/Lions Cross Note

• Detroit vs Kansas City (any venue): 4-7 ATS | 4-7 SU | 9-2 O/U

🔵 Team System Trends

Indianapolis Colts

• Home favorite, total 47.5–51, before conference game (off AFC opponent): 11-2 ATS | 12-1 SU | 6-7 O/U

Dallas Cowboys

• Road, total 47.5–51, scored 35+ last game: 9-2 ATS | 10-1 SU | 6-5 O/U
• Road favorite before division game (off 14–17 pt win): 4-8 ATS | 5-7 SU | 2-10 O/U
• Road, non-division, after non-conference, allowed 22–28 against last game: 4-8-1 ATS | 4-9 SU | 10-2-1 O/U

Philadelphia Eagles

• Road favorite vs division (off an Under): 8-3 ATS | 9-2 SU | 5-6 O/U
• -7.0 to -9.5 favorite, total 37–41, allowed ≥21 last game: 4-8 ATS | 10-1-1 SU | 7-5 O/U

Green Bay Packers

• Home favorite vs non-division, opp win% 31–40%: 22-10-1 ATS | 30-3 SU | 17-16 O/U
• Home after a conference game (last 5 yrs): 19-9 ATS | 23-5 SU | 11-16-1 O/U
• Week 4–8, opp win% 31–40%: 11-7-1 ATS | 16-3 SU | 10-9 O/U
• -10 or more favorite, before non-division, off NFC foe: 11-18-1 ATS | 25-5 SU | 16-14 O/U
• -10 or more favorite, vs non-conference, before non-division, off NFC foe: 3-8-1 ATS | 10-2 SU | 6-6 O/U

Pittsburgh Steelers

• -3.5 to -6.5 home favorite in October, allowed ≤21 last game: 13-2 ATS | 15-0 SU | 7-8 O/U
• Home favorite after non-conference, off back-to-back SU wins: 12-7 ATS | 15-3-1 SU | 5-14 O/U

Washington Commanders

• Home in October, before division game, scored 27+ last game: 9-5-1 ATS | 10-5 SU | 12-3 O/U
• -3.5 to -6.5 home favorite after non-division, scored 27+ last game: 10-6 ATS | 13-3 SU | 6-10 O/U
• Home favorite after non-division, off 1 Under & 1 ATS win: 5-6 ATS | 6-5 SU | 2-9 O/U

Las Vegas Raiders

• -3.5 to -6.5 favorite, 6 days off, off 1 ATS loss: 8-7 ATS | 11-4 SU | 3-12 O/U

New England Patriots

• Road favorite, 6 days off, before conference game, scored 21+ last game: 9-8 ATS | 14-3 SU | 6-11 O/U

New York Jets

• +7 to +9.5 dog, 6 days off, scored 22–28 last game: 6-7-1 ATS | 4-10 SU | 2-12 O/U

Los Angeles Rams

• Road favorite, total 44.5–47, scored ≤24 last game: 9-2 ATS | 9-2 SU | 5-6 O/U
• Road favorite after a conference game (last 5 yrs): 5-6 ATS | 9-2 SU | 4-7 O/U

Baltimore Ravens

• Home underdog vs non-division, before non-division, off back-to-back SU losses: 6-9 ATS | 5-10 SU | 12-3 O/U

Kansas City Chiefs

• Home favorite, before a conference game (last 5 yrs): 10-8 ATS | 16-2 SU | 7-11 O/U
• Home favorite, total 51.5–54 (last 5 yrs): 3-8 ATS | 10-1 SU | 3-8 O/U

🔵 Random System Trends

New England Patriots

• Road favorite in October, before conference game: 10-2 ATS | 11-1 SU | 7-5 O/U

Pittsburgh Steelers

• -3.5 to -6.5 home favorite in October, Week 4–8: 16-5 ATS | 19-2 SU | 9-12 O/U
• -3.5 to -6.5 home favorite, Week 4–8, before conference game: 7-5 ATS | 10-2 SU | 5-7 O/U

Green Bay Packers

• Home favorite vs non-division, opp win% 31–40%: 22-10-1 ATS | 30-3 SU | 17-16 O/U

Las Vegas Raiders

• Home favorite vs non-division, Week 4–8: 23-12-1 ATS | 29-7 SU | 22-14 O/U
• Home favorite, Week 4–8 vs conference opponent: 9-5-1 ATS | 12-3 SU | 11-4 O/U
• -3.5 to -6.5 home favorite, 6 days off, October: 5-7 ATS | 10-2 SU | 5-7 O/U

Dallas Cowboys

• Road favorite vs non-division, October: 16-9 ATS | 20-5 SU | 16-9 O/U

Kansas City Chiefs

• Home favorite, last 5 yrs, after a conference game: 20-10 ATS | 28-2 SU | 12-18 O/U
• Home vs NFC North, before a division game: 9-5-1 ATS | 12-3 SU | 9-6 O/U
• Home favorite, last 3 yrs, after a conference game: 12-7 ATS | 17-2 SU | 7-12 O/U
• Home, last 4 yrs, before a conference game: 9-7 ATS | 13-3 SU | 7-9 O/U
• Home favorite, 5 days off, before a division game: 6-11-1 ATS | 15-3 SU | 9-9 O/U

Detroit Lions

• Road vs non-division (last 2 yrs): 12-2 ATS | 11-3 SU | 9-5 O/U
• Road dog after non-conference, October: 10-6 ATS | 4-12 SU | 2-14 O/U

Indianapolis Colts

• Home favorite in October vs non-conference: 8-6-1 ATS | 10-5 SU | 12-3 O/U

Washington Commanders

• Home favorite, before conference, Week 4–8: 15-12-1 ATS | 26-2 SU | 15-13 O/U
• -3.5 to -6.5 favorite vs non-division, after non-conference: 11-9 ATS | 16-4 SU | 9-11 O/U
• Home favorite in October, before division game: 14-12-1 ATS | 22-5 SU | 18-9 O/U
• Home favorite, Week 4–8 vs conference: 10-10 ATS | 18-2 SU | 14-6 O/U
• -3.5 to -6.5 home favorite vs non-division, before division: 12-13 ATS | 20-5 SU | 11-14 O/U

Los Angeles Rams

• Road favorite vs non-division (last 4 yrs): 7-6 ATS | 11-2 SU | 8-5 O/U

New York Giants

• Home, last 5 yrs, Week 4–8: 7-5-1 ATS | 6-7 SU | 1-12 O/U
• Home dog, last 5 yrs, before non-conference: 6-5-1 ATS | 4-7 SU | 1-11 O/U
• Home dog, last 5 yrs, before non-division: 13-11-1 ATS | 10-14 SU | 5-20 O/U
• Home dog, Week 4–8, before non-division: 7-11-2 ATS | 7-13 SU | 3-16-1 O/U

Philadelphia Eagles

• -7.0 to -9.5 favorite, October, Week 4–8: 5-8 ATS | 11-2 SU | 4-9 O/U

🔵 Smart Stats System Trends

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Home favorite, ≥1 Over, won last game by 3+, SU 3-2 in L5: 14-8 ATS | 19-3 SU | 11-11 O/U

Green Bay Packers

• Home favorite with SU record 2–3 in L5: 21-18-2 ATS | 33-7-1 SU | 22-18-1 O/U

📊 Raymond Report Takeaway

Highest-signal angles this week:

• PIT (−3.5 to −6.5 home in October, ≤21 allowed last game): 13-2 ATS | 15-0 SU
• DAL after 35+ points (road, 47.5–51 total): 9-2 ATS | 10-1 SU
• DET road (non-division, last 2 yrs): 12-2 ATS | 11-3 SU
• WSH home in October after 27+ points: 12-3 O/U
• GB mid-range home chalk vs sub-40% teams: 22-10-1 ATS | 30-3 SU

Use these as signals, not stamps. Confirm with MVI (market cycles), SOS, and injury/number movement before you fire. Patience beats panic. Value beats vibes.