Categories: NFL

NFL Week 6 Power Ratings & SOS Outlook

Raymond Report Sports Betting System – Strength of Schedule Edition
(Through Week 5 Results)

🔝 Top-Tier Teams (PR 0.63 – 0.83)

These are the market leaders — teams performing both on paper and against quality opponents.

Team	W-L	SOS%	PR	Comment
Jacksonville Jaguars	4-1	48%	0.64 (0.83 L3)	Hottest team in the AFC; impressive 3-0 stretch with a strong SOS bump.
San Francisco 49ers	4-1	52%	0.66	Still elite — their consistency and efficiency keep them at the top.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4-1	46%	0.63	Quietly one of the most complete teams through five games.
Philadelphia Eagles	4-1	58%	0.69	Slight dip from 4-0 dominance, but still one of the league’s most balanced clubs.
Detroit Lions	4-1	39.33%	0.60	Toughness + efficiency. Slightly soft SOS, but the PR backs up the hype.
Pittsburgh Steelers	3-1	45%	0.60 (0.67 L3)	Physical, gritty, and getting better. A buy-low candidate in the market.

🔎 Sharp Note: Jacksonville’s Last 3 PR (0.83) leads the entire league — red-hot trend signal.

⚖️ Middle-Tier Movers (PR 0.50 – 0.60)

These teams are stuck in neutral — capable of big wins but inconsistent when stepping up in class.

Team	W-L	SOS%	PR	Comment
Green Bay Packers	2-1-1	52.5%	0.60	Still tough to peg, but metrics show they belong.
Rams / Seahawks	3-2	59-60%	0.60	NFC West parity — every game a war, every team a live dog.
Minnesota Vikings	3-2	47%	0.54	Quietly trending up; beware undervaluation.
New England Patriots	3-2	47%	0.54 (0.67 L3)	Belichick magic isn’t dead — metrics stronger than perception.
Indianapolis Colts	4-1	36%	0.58	Record inflated by light SOS. Fade candidate when schedule stiffens.
Denver Broncos	3-2	56%	0.58	Trending up after a brutal early stretch.
Washington Commanders	3-2	43.33%	0.52	Average across the board — very matchup-dependent.

🔎 Sharp Note: Patriots and Broncos are Power Rating risers the last two weeks; both improving efficiency and balance.

📉 Fading Teams / Market Overreactions (PR 0.40 – 0.50)

Teams that look “okay” in the standings, but SOS + PR say they’re not as good as the record implies.

Team	W-L	SOS%	PR	Comment
Buffalo Bills	4-1	24%	0.52	Winning, yes—but weakest schedule among AFC elites. Overvalued in spreads.
Kansas City Chiefs	2-3	52%	0.46	They’re not broken, but they’re not themselves either.
Cincinnati Bengals	2-3	60%	0.50	Still finding rhythm; high SOS excuses some struggles.
Carolina Panthers	2-3	50%	0.45	Scrappy but average. Good situational play, not long-term trust.
Chicago Bears	2-2	52.5%	0.51	Up from earlier weeks — metrics trending neutral, not bullish.
Houston Texans	2-3	52%	0.46	Young team improving; PR solid vs expectations.

🧊 Cold & Collapsing (PR Below 0.40)

These teams are either playing weak schedules or underperforming across the board.

Team	W-L	SOS%	PR	Comment
New Orleans Saints	1-4	56%	0.38	Lack of offensive consistency sinking them.
Tennessee Titans	1-4	56%	0.38	Can’t win close ones — PR reflects offensive inefficiency.
Cleveland Browns	1-4	53.33%	0.37	Rough SOS, but the offense isn’t pulling its weight.
Baltimore Ravens	1-4	52%	0.36	Brutal month. SOS is fair, but they’ve underperformed expectations.
Miami Dolphins	1-4	52%	0.36	Same story as Baltimore: high potential, poor results.
Las Vegas Raiders	1-4	62%	0.41	Schedule’s been tough, but that offense is lifeless.
New York Giants	1-4	46%	0.33	Bottom 3 in both PR and execution.
New York Jets	0-5	61%	0.31 (0.25 L3)	League’s weakest team by Raymond Report metrics — SOS gives minor sympathy.

💰 Raymond Report Betting Angles for Week 6

Overvalued Favorites: Buffalo, Colts, Chiefs – inflated lines due to record, not performance.
Value Dogs: Patriots, Broncos, Texans – PR trend lines rising; undervalued in market.
Fade Alert: Jets, Giants, Ravens – inefficiency outweighs effort.

📊 Raymond Report Summary Index (Week 6 Snapshot)

Tier	PR Range	Betting Signal
Top Tier (A+)	0.63 – 0.83	Buy – consistent, efficient, proven
Upper Mid (B)	0.52 – 0.60	Neutral – matchup-driven value
Lower Mid (C)	0.45 – 0.51	Risky – regression likely
Bottom Tier (D/F)	≤ 0.40	Fade – no consistency or identity

👉 Smart Bettors Read the Market – Sharp Bettors Read the Raymond Report.
Full Power Rating & SOS breakdowns updated weekly at ATSStats.com — where data turns into dollars. 💰

Ron Raymond

Ron Raymond is a veteran sports handicapper and founder of ATSstats.com, creator of the Raymond Report sports betting system. Active in the industry since 1996, Ron has nearly three decades of experience analyzing market cycles, performance indicators, and value metrics across the NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, and CFL. Ron’s data-driven approach has helped thousands of bettors think strategically, manage risk, and win with confidence.

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