NFL Wild Card Weekend Recap – January 11-13, 2025

The NFL Wild Card Weekend delivered thrilling matchups, with several teams advancing in the playoffs. Here’s a detailed recap of the games, highlighting key insights from ATS STATS SBI reports:

Saturday, January 11, 2025

Los Angeles Chargers 12, Houston Texans 32

• Market Analysis: Houston, as +133 underdogs, pulled off a decisive upset over the Chargers. Despite a bearish COW (36.36%), they dominated defensively and offensively.
• Takeaway: The game went over the total (40.5), aligning with Houston’s recent over trends (3-2 L5 O/U). This game demonstrated value in underdogs with recent momentum.

Pittsburgh Steelers 14, Baltimore Ravens 28

• Market Analysis: Baltimore covered the -9 spread as heavy favorites. Their bullish form (5 SU wins) and strong defense delivered another win.
• Takeaway: The total (44.5) stayed under, reflecting Baltimore’s ability to control the tempo. They remain a team to watch, riding a 5-0 ATS streak.

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Denver Broncos 7, Buffalo Bills 31

• Market Analysis: Buffalo easily covered the -7.5 spread, taking advantage of Denver’s struggles. The game stayed under the total (47.5), in line with bearish trends for overs.
• Takeaway: Buffalo’s defensive dominance and consistency at home were key factors, reinforcing their bullish outlook.

Green Bay Packers 10, Philadelphia Eagles 22

• Market Analysis: Philadelphia covered the -5.5 spread, continuing their 3-game SU and ATS win streaks. The game went under the total (44.5), aligning with Philadelphia’s under trends (7-11 O/U this season).
• Takeaway: The Eagles’ strong defense and efficient offense make them formidable in the next round.

Washington Commanders 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

• Market Analysis: Washington (+144 underdogs) secured a narrow victory, defying their bearish COW (6.25%). The total (51.5) stayed under.
• Takeaway: The Commanders’ defensive resilience and clutch offense proved vital in a tough road win.

Monday, January 13, 2025

Minnesota Vikings 9, Los Angeles Rams 27

• Market Analysis: The Rams (-2) covered easily, capitalizing on a superior defense and Minnesota’s offensive struggles. The total (47.5) stayed under, following the bearish trend for overs (16.7% this week).
• Takeaway: The Rams’ performance validated their COW (32.37%) and recent bullish form, setting them up for a challenging matchup next.

Market Insights

• Favorites (SU): Finished 50% (3-3), reflecting neutral performance for the week. Underdogs like Houston and Washington capitalized on situational advantages.
• Overs (O/U): Only 16.7% of games went over, indicating bearish conditions for overs this week.
• ATS Performance: Favorites and underdogs split ATS (3-3), demonstrating no clear market bias.

Divisional Round Lookahead

Key Matchups

1. Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
   • Houston: Riding a 2-game SU and ATS win streak but faces a rested Chiefs team. Kansas City has been bearish in totals, with 1 over in their last 5 games.
   • Market Insight: Expect defensive adjustments and a potential low-scoring game.
2. Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions
   • Detroit: Entering with bullish metrics, backed by a 3-game SU and ATS streak. Washington’s COW remains low (6.25%), signaling potential struggles.
   • Market Insight: Detroit has the edge in consistency and efficiency.
3. Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
   • Baltimore: Riding 5-game SU and ATS win streaks. Buffalo’s defense will be tested against Baltimore’s explosive offense.
   • Market Insight: A potential shootout with bullish outlooks for both teams.
4. Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
   • Philadelphia: Strong favorites, boasting a 3-game SU and ATS win streak. The Rams will rely on their defense to keep this close.
   • Market Insight: Philadelphia’s balanced attack positions them as strong contenders.

Conclusion

Wild Card Weekend highlighted the importance of market dynamics, with underdogs delivering value and overs struggling across the board. Looking ahead, situational metrics and recent trends will play pivotal roles in identifying opportunities in the Divisional Round. Stay tuned for more insights from ATS STATS!