Buffalo Bills (46.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6.5) Preview & Prediction (11/28/2019)

The Buffalo Bills will be on the road this Thanksgiving taking the field against the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. The Bills will be looking for a third consecutive win after beating the Denver Broncos 20-3 in Buffalo. The Cowboys will be looking for their second win in three games following a 13-9 loss on the road against the New England Patriots.

The Buffalo Bills are now 8-3 on the season following a 20-3 win against the Denver Broncos. Josh Allen was able to complete 15 of 25 passes for 185 yards and two touchdowns. He also had an interception in the game.

Devin Singletary was able to run the ball for 106 yards on 21 carries while Cole Beasley led Buffalo with 76 receiving yards and a score on six receptions.

The Bills are scoring an average of 21 points per game this season. They have been good for 365.3 total yards per week, 226.1 through the air and 139.2 on the ground. Defensively, Buffalo is holding opponents to just 15.7 points per game. They give up an average of 308.8 total yards to their opponents, 204.5 passing and 104.4 rushing.

The Dallas Cowboys are now 6-5 following a 13-9 loss in New England against the Patriots. Dak Prescott was able to connect on 19 of 33 passes for 212 yards with an interception.

Ezekiel Elliott ran the ball for 86 yards on 21 carries while Randall Cobb led Dallas with 86 receiving yards on four receptions.

The Cowboys are scoring an average of 26.8 points per game this season. They have been able to move the ball for 441.9 total yards per week, 312.1 through the air and 129.8 on the ground. On the defensive side of the ball, Dallas gives up an average of 19.1 points per game. They have been giving their opponents an average of 337.7 yards a week, 232.9 passing and 104.8 rushing.

The Cowboys will take the field as six and a half point favorites with the total sitting at 47. The Cowboys have been a mess the last few weeks. They started the season off with high hopes but weren’t playing serious competition at the time.

Buffalo, on the other hand, had a great first half of the season. They have beaten the teams they were expected to beat with losses against New England, Philadelphia, and Cleveland.

Jerry Jones made some comments following last week’s game and I think his team will respond. That being said, I think it’s one of those cases where simply winning is going to be a huge step. The Bills have been difficult to score against and that’s not going to change simply because Jerry Jones made a few comments. I like the Cowboys winning, but I don’t see them covering this spread. My money’s on the Bills plus six and a half.

NFL Stats and Trends:

  • Buffalo is 9-3-1 ATS in their previous 13 games.
  • Buffalo is 5-0-1 ATS in their previous six games played in November.
  • Dallas is 4-8 ATS in their previous 12 Thursday games.
  • The total has stayed under in in five of Dallas’ previous seven games vs. Buffalo.
Buffalo Bills 6.5   ( 239 ) Vs. Dallas Cowboys Dallas Cowboys -6.5  ( -293 ) Vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills (46.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6.5) Preview & Prediction (11/28/2019)

Buffalo Bills
O/U :46.5

Vs.
Date: 2019-11-28
Time: 16:30:00

Generated from
Previous Games
Buffalo Bills (46.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6.5) Preview & Prediction (11/28/2019)

Dallas Cowboys
SIDE :6.5

23.67 Forecast
(O/U 52.08 )
28.41
15% C.O.C 35%
53% C.O.G.O 53%
-5.43 MSV -8.02
(A) NEUTRAL MVI (B) NEUTRAL
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? (CFL, CFB and NFL)
C.O.C. = (Chances of Covering) – The ‘C.O.C.’ percentage is based on a teams win/lost record from a ‘Point Spread’ perspective and not their ‘straight up’ (SU) record, using the teams short and long-term win/lost record. After we process it through our ‘math predictor’, we then provide a ‘CHANCES OF COVERING’ percentage for that team in their next game, which let’s you know if there’s any value on betting that team.
C.O.G.O. = (Chances Game Going OVER) – The ‘C.O.G.O.’ percentage is based on both teams OVER/UNDER record, using both teams short and long-term OVER/UNDER records. After we process it through our ‘math predictor’, we then provide a ‘CHANCES OF COVERING’ percentage for that game, which let’s you know if there’s any value on the OVER in that game.
*Note: If there’s a 60% chance of the game going OVER, that means, there’s a 40% chance of the game going UNDER.
MSV = (Market Spread Value) – The MSV is our researched and calculated line compared to the bookmaker’s line. When calculating the MSV, we look for the margin of error between the bookmaker’s line, the final result of a game and then produce the value of what the line should be in the next game for both teams.VI = (Value Index) – The Value Index is the current psychology of the betting public, based on a teams 3-game cycle.

  • BULLISH = Team is either (3-0) in their last 3 games.
  • NEUTRAL = Team is either (1-2 or 2-3) in their last 3 games.
  • BEARISH = Team is either (0-3) in their last 3 games.

L.O.A. = (Law of Average) – The “Law of Average” edge is based on the 50/50 theory. Play on a team that lost against the spread (ATS) or straight up (SU) in their last game, vs. a team that won against the spread (ATS) or straight up (SU) in their last game.

Raymond Report
Buffalo Bills Dallas Cowboys
Season Record : 8-3 Season Record : 6-5
Away Record : 4-1 Away Record : 3-3
Home Record : 4-2 Home Record : 3-2
Line : 6.5 Line : -6.5
O/U : 46.5 O/U : 46.5
LINEMOVES LINEMOVES
Last game: Win 3 – 20 vs DENVER BRONCOS Last game: Lost 9 – 13 vs NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
SU: 3-4 ATS: 4-3-0 O/U: 3-4-0
SU: 4-1 ATS: 4-1-0 O/U: 1-4-0
Current game: vs. Dallas Cowboys Current game: vs. Buffalo Bills
SU: 1-3 ATS: 1-2-1 O/U: 2-2-0
SU: 3-1 ATS: 2-1-1 O/U: 2-2-0
Next Game: Vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS Next Game: At CHICAGO BEARS
SU: 3-3 ATS: 3-3-0 O/U: 3-3-0
SU: 6-3 ATS: 3-5-1 O/U: 6-3-0
Days Rest : 3 (RD) Days Rest : 3 (HF)
(L) SU:  (29 %) ATS:  (43.5%) O/U: (52.9%)
(L) SU: (71%) ATS: (53.6%) O/U: (52.9%)
(T) SU: (1-2) ATS: (1-2-0) O/U: (1-2-0)
(T) SU: (14-7) ATS: (10-10-1) O/U: (10-11-0)
Streaks : 2 SU Win – 2 ATS Win – 1 Under Streaks : 1 SU Lost – 2 ATS Win – 1 Under
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 55.55% Home Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 44.45%
Home Favorite: 4 Win -1 Lost   (PF)21.8 – (PA)16.2 Home Favorite: 3 Win -2 Lost   (PF)30.2 – (PA)19
Home Underdog: 0 Win -1 Lost   (PF)10 – (PA)16 Home Underdog: 0 Win -0 Lost   (PF)N/A – (PA)N/A
Road Favorite: 2 Win -0 Lost   (PF)32.5 – (PA)17 Road Favorite: 3 Win -2 Lost   (PF)27 – (PA)20.4
Road Underdog: 2 Win -1 Lost   (PF)15.67 – (PA)14 Road Underdog: 0 Win -1 Lost   (PF)9 – (PA)13
Last 3 game: 2 Win 1 Lost    (PF)24.33 – (PA)14 Last 3 game: 1 Win 2 Lost    (PF)22.67 – (PA)22.67
Last 5 game: 3 Win 2 Lost    (PF)22 – (PA)16.4 Last 5 game: 3 Win 2 Lost    (PF)28.4 – (PA)19.2
Last 7 game: 5 Win 2 Lost   (PF)22.14 – (PA)15.71 Last 7 game: 3 Win 4 Lost   (PF)26.86 – (PA)22
Last 10 game: 7 Win 3 Lost   (PF)21.4 – (PA)15.7 Last 10 game: 5 Win 5 Lost   (PF)26 – (PA)19.3
Last 15 game: 8 Win 3 Lost   (PF)21 – (PA)15.73 Last 15 game: 6 Win 5 Lost   (PF)26.82 – (PA)19.09
Situations (Buffalo Bills) Situations (Dallas Cowboys)
Coming off a vs AFC West opponent (DEN) Coming off a vs AFC East opponent (NE)
Coming off a home fav win Coming off a road underdog lost
Coming off a 2 game winning streak Coming off 1 under
Coming off 1 under Coming off a game scored 13 points or less
Coming off a game scored 20 points or more Coming off a game scored 13 points or more against
Coming off a game scored 3 points or less against Coming off 2 game road stand
Coming off 2 ATS win Coming off 2 ATS win
Trends Trends
Query ATS SU O/U
Query ATS SU O/U
When DALLAS COWBOYS team played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a non division game – Coming off a 1 under 6-6-0 8-4 10-2-0
When DALLAS COWBOYS team played as Home team as a Favorite – Total is between 44.5 to 47 – Coming off a 1 under 4-6-0 5-5 8-2-0

 

 

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