Kansas City Chiefs (49) vs. New England Patriots (3) Preview & Prediction (12/08/2019)

The Kansas City Chiefs will be on the road this week taking the field against the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Kansas City will be looking for a third consecutive win after beating the Oakland Raiders 40-9 at home last week. The Patriots will be looking for their second win in three games after a 28-22 loss against the Texans in Houston their last time on the field.

 

The Kansas City Chiefs are now 8-4 on the season following a 40-9 win at home against the Oakland Raiders. Patrick Mahomes was able to connect on 15 of 29 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown.

 

Darwin Thompson was the Chiefs’ leading rusher with 44 yards and a score on 11 carries while Travis Kelce had 90 receiving yards on five receptions

 

Kansas City has been able to find the endzone for an average of 29.0 points per game this season. They are moving the ball for an average of 398.0 total yards, 303.5 through the air with 94.5 on the ground.

 

Defensively, the Chiefs are holding opponents to an average of 22.1 points per week. They are giving up an average of 393.9 total yards, 252.6 passing, and 141.3 rushing.

 

The New England Patriots are now 10-2 following a 22-28 loss in Houston against the Texans. Tom Brady was able to toss the ball for 326 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception while completing 24 of 47 passes.

 

James White was able to run the ball for 79 yards on 14 carries while Julian Edelman hauled in a score and 106 receiving yards on six receptions.

 

New England has been good for an average of 26.8 points per week this season. They are moving the ball for an average of 373.8 yards a game, 277.4 through the air and 96.3 on the ground.

 

On the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots are giving up an average of 12.1 points per game. They are holding their opponents to an average of just 280.5 yards a week, 186.0 passing and 94.5 rushing.

 

New England will take the field as three-point favorites in this one with the total sitting at 49 on the game. I’m liking this total to stay under, here. The Patriots have had issues scoring points as it is this season and Julian Edelman won’t be playing this week. That being said, New England has one of the stingiest defenses in the league and they will be playing at home. My money is on the total staying under 49.

 NFL Week 14 Trends

  • The total has stayed under in four of Kansas City’s previous six games vs. the AFC Conference.
  • The total has stayed under in nine of New England’s previous 13 games.
  • The total has stayed under in 10 of New England’s previous 13 games played in December.
Kansas City Chiefs 3   ( 144 ) Vs. New England Patriots (Total:49) New England Patriots -3  ( -165 ) Vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Total:49)
Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs
O/U :49

Vs.
Date: 2019-12-08
Time: 16:25:00

Generated from 13
Previous Games
New England Patriots

New England Patriots
SIDE :3

22.03 Forecast
(O/U 49.37 )
27.34
35% C.O.W 80%
38% C.O.C 54%
61% C.O.G.O 61%
-6.92 MSV -15.08
(A) NEUTRAL PVI (A) NEUTRAL
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? (CFL,NFL & NCAAF)
C.O.W. = (Chances of Winning) – The ‘C.O.W.’ percentage is based on a teams win/lost record using their short and long-term win/lost record. After we process it through our ‘math predictor’, we then provide a ‘CHANCES OF WINNING’ percentage for their next game, which let’s you know if there’s any value on betting that team.

C.O.C. = (Chances of Covering) – The ‘C.O.C.’ percentage is based on a teams win/lost record from a ‘Point Spread’ perspective and not their ‘straight up’ (SU) record, using the teams short and long-term win/lost record. After we process it through our ‘math predictor’, we then provide a ‘CHANCES OF COVERING’ percentage for that team in their next game, which let’s you know if there’s any value on betting that team.

C.O.G.O. = (Chances Game Going OVER) – The ‘C.O.G.O.’ percentage is based on both teams OVER/UNDER record, using both teams short and long-term OVER/UNDER records. After we process it through our ‘math predictor’, we then provide a ‘CHANCES OF COVERING’ percentage for that game, which let’s you know if there’s any value on the OVER in that game.
*Note: If there’s a 60% chance of the game going OVER, that means, there’s a 40% chance of the game going UNDER.

L.O.A. = (Law of Average) – The ‘Law of Average’ edge is based on the 50/50 theory. Play on a team that lost against the spread (ATS) or straight up (SU) in their last game, vs. a team that won against the spread (ATS) or straight up (SU) in their last game.

MSV = (Market Spread Value) – The MSV is our researched and calculated line compared to the bookmaker’s line. When calculating the MSV, we look for the margin of error between the bookmaker’s line, the final result of a game and then produce the value of what the line should be in the next game for both teams.

PVI = (Value Index) – The Value Index is the current psychology of the betting public, based on a teams 3-game cycle.
BULLISH = Team is either (3-0) in their last 3 games.
NEUTRAL = Team is either (1-2 or 2-1) in their last 3 games.
BEARISH = Team is either (0-3) in their last 3 games.

Raymond Report
Kansas City Chiefs New England Patriots
Season Record : 8-4 Season Record : 10-2
Away Record : 5-1 Away Record : 5-2
Home Record : 3-3 Home Record : 5-0
Line : 3 Line : -3
O/U : 49 O/U : 49
LINEMOVES LINEMOVES
Last game: Win 9 – 40 vs OAKLAND RAIDERS Last game: Lost 22 – 28 vs HOUSTON TEXANS
SU: 10-21 ATS: 13-18-0 O/U: 14-16-1
SU: 3-5 ATS: 2-6-0 O/U: 6-2-0
Current game: vs. New England Patriots Current game: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
SU: 2-7 ATS: 5-4-0 O/U: 7-2-0
SU: 7-2 ATS: 4-5-0 O/U: 7-2-0
Next Game: Vs. DENVER BRONCOS Next Game: At CINCINNATI BENGALS
SU: 11-19 ATS: 14-15-1 O/U: 18-12-0
SU: 2-2 ATS: 2-2-0 O/U: 3-1-0
Days Rest : 6 (RD) Days Rest : 6 (HF)
(L) SU:  (29-43-0 ) ATS:  (41-29-2 ) O/U: (35-37-0)
(L) SU: ( 46-27-0) ATS:  (31-40-2) O/U: (34-39-0)
(T) SU: (0-0) ATS: (0-0-0) O/U: (0-0-0)
(T) SU: (2-0) ATS: (0-2-0) O/U: (1-1-0)
Streaks : 2 SU Win – 2 ATS Win – 2 Under Streaks : 1 SU Lost – 2 ATS Lost – 1 Over
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 44.44% Home Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 33.33%
Home Favorite: 2 Win -2 Lost   (PF)27.5 – (PA)21.75 Home Favorite: 5 Win -0 Lost   (PF)27.6 – (PA)10.6
Home Underdog: 1 Win -1 Lost   (PF)25 – (PA)27 Home Underdog: 0 Win -0 Lost   (PF)N/A – (PA)N/A
Road Favorite: 5 Win -1 Lost   (PF)31.33 – (PA)20.67 Road Favorite: 5 Win -2 Lost   (PF)26.29 – (PA)13.14
Road Underdog: 0 Win -0 Lost   (PF)N/A – (PA)N/A Road Underdog: 0 Win -0 Lost   (PF)N/A – (PA)N/A
Last 3 game: 2 Win 1 Lost    (PF)32 – (PA)20.33 Last 3 game: 2 Win 1 Lost    (PF)17.33 – (PA)15.67
Last 5 game: 3 Win 2 Lost    (PF)29.2 – (PA)23 Last 5 game: 3 Win 2 Lost    (PF)19.8 – (PA)19.4
Last 7 game: 4 Win 3 Lost   (PF)28.57 – (PA)21.71 Last 7 game: 5 Win 2 Lost   (PF)23.86 – (PA)15.86
Last 10 game: 6 Win 4 Lost   (PF)28 – (PA)22.9 Last 10 game: 8 Win 2 Lost   (PF)24.6 – (PA)14.2
Last 15 game: 8 Win 4 Lost   (PF)29 – (PA)22.08 Last 15 game: 10 Win 2 Lost   (PF)26.83 – (PA)12.08
Situations (Kansas City Chiefs) Situations (New England Patriots)
Coming off a vs AFC West opponent (OAK) Coming off a vs AFC South opponent (HOU)
Coming off a home fav win Coming off a road favorite lost
Coming off a 2 game winning streak Coming off 1 over
Coming off 2 unders Coming off a game scored 24 points or less
Coming off a game scored 40 points or more Coming off a game scored 28 points or more against
Coming off a game scored 13 points or less against Coming off 2 ATS lost
Trends Trends
Query ATS SU O/U
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as Road team as a Underdog – During Week 12 to 16 – Coming off 2 game winning streak 4-6-0 4-6 8-2-0
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as a Road team – Last 2 years – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite 8-2-1 8-3 8-3-0
Query ATS SU O/U
When NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS team played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of December – Coming off vs American Conference opponent – Coming off a Road loss 6-6-0 10-2 6-6-0
When NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS team played as a Home team – Total is between 47.5 to 51 – Allowed 28 points or more AGAINST in their last game 4-6-0 5-5 9-1-0
When NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS team played as a Home team – Last 5 years – Coming off 1 over 6-3-2 9-2 9-2-0
When NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS team played as a Home team – Last 5 years – With 6 day off – Scored 22 – 28 POINTS FOR in their last game 9-1-0 9-1 5-5-0

 

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