DATE: Monday, March 23, 2026
SPORT: NHL
METRIC: Market Value Index (MVI)
REPORT TYPE: Analytical / Dashboard
The NHL regular season is hitting the home stretch, and the betting markets are reacting with increased volatility. For the professional bettor, understanding the NHL Market Value Index (MVI) is the difference between chasing “public” steam and identifying legitimate “Bullish” value. At ATS Stats, we don’t just look at wins and losses; we track how the market prices these teams relative to their performance, momentum, and the Daily Market Value Index (DMVI).
Today’s report highlights a top-heavy market dominated by Colorado and Carolina, while the mid-tier sees a massive surge from Nashville and “A” Grade sleeper status for Buffalo.
NHL MARKET VALUE INDEX DATA – MARCH 23, 2026
The following table breaks down the current market standing for all 32 teams (excluding Hartford). Key metrics include Grade, Market Value (MV), Last 7 Games (L7G), and the crucial Value Index.
| GRADE | Team | W | L | GP | WIN% | Market Value | L7G | STREAKS | Confidence | VALUE INDEX | DMVI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | COLORADO | 46 | 23 | 69 | 0.67 | -250 | 3-4 | 2W | 42% | NEUTRAL | -205 |
| A | CAROLINA | 45 | 25 | 70 | 0.64 | -240 | 5-2 | 3W | 71% | BULLISH | -189 |
| A | TAMPA BAY | 43 | 26 | 69 | 0.62 | -220 | 4-3 | 1L | 57% | NEUTRAL | -186 |
| A | BUFFALO | 44 | 27 | 71 | 0.62 | -220 | 5-2 | 1L | 71% | BULLISH | -196 |
| A | DALLAS | 43 | 27 | 70 | 0.61 | -210 | 4-3 | 2L | 57% | NEUTRAL | -180 |
| B | MINNESOTA | 40 | 31 | 71 | 0.56 | -170 | 3-4 | 1W | 42% | NEUTRAL | -141 |
| B | NY ISLANDERS | 40 | 31 | 71 | 0.56 | -170 | 4-3 | 1W | 57% | NEUTRAL | -121 |
| B | BOSTON | 39 | 31 | 70 | 0.56 | -170 | 4-3 | 2W | 57% | NEUTRAL | -112 |
| B | ANAHEIM | 39 | 31 | 70 | 0.56 | -170 | 4-3 | 2W | 57% | NEUTRAL | -100 |
| B | MONTREAL | 38 | 31 | 69 | 0.55 | -160 | 4-3 | 1W | 57% | NEUTRAL | -142 |
| B | DETROIT | 38 | 32 | 70 | 0.54 | -150 | 3-4 | 1L | 42% | NEUTRAL | -118 |
| B | COLUMBUS | 37 | 33 | 70 | 0.53 | -140 | 5-2 | 1L | 71% | BULLISH | -150 |
| B | OTTAWA | 36 | 33 | 69 | 0.52 | -120 | 5-2 | 2W | 71% | BULLISH | -170 |
| B | UTAH | 37 | 34 | 71 | 0.52 | -120 | 3-4 | 1W | 42% | NEUTRAL | -123 |
| B | NEW JERSEY | 35 | 34 | 69 | 0.51 | -110 | 4-3 | 1L | 57% | NEUTRAL | -83 |
| B | PITTSBURGH | 35 | 35 | 70 | 0.50 | 100 | 3-4 | 1L | 42% | NEUTRAL | 80 |
| C | FLORIDA | 34 | 35 | 69 | 0.49 | 110 | 4-3 | 1L | 57% | NEUTRAL | 101 |
| C | PHILADELPHIA | 34 | 35 | 69 | 0.49 | 110 | 5-2 | 3W | 71% | BULLISH | 120 |
| C | WASHINGTON | 35 | 36 | 71 | 0.49 | 110 | 4-3 | 1L | 57% | NEUTRAL | 133 |
| C | EDMONTON | 34 | 37 | 71 | 0.48 | 140 | 3-4 | 2L | 42% | NEUTRAL | 107 |
| C | SAN JOSE | 32 | 36 | 68 | 0.47 | 150 | 2-5 | 4L | 28% | BEARISH | 114 |
| C | NASHVILLE | 33 | 37 | 70 | 0.47 | 150 | 5-2 | 4W | 71% | BULLISH | 129 |
| C | SEATTLE | 31 | 38 | 69 | 0.45 | 170 | 2-5 | 3L | 28% | BEARISH | 150 |
| C | VEGAS | 32 | 39 | 71 | 0.45 | 170 | 3-4 | 1W | 42% | NEUTRAL | 129 |
| C | WINNIPEG | 29 | 41 | 70 | 0.41 | 190 | 3-4 | 1W | 42% | NEUTRAL | 133 |
| C | CALGARY | 29 | 41 | 70 | 0.41 | 190 | 4-3 | 3W | 57% | NEUTRAL | 176 |
| C | ST LOUIS | 28 | 41 | 69 | 0.41 | 190 | 4-3 | 1W | 57% | NEUTRAL | 163 |
| C | TORONTO | 29 | 42 | 71 | 0.41 | 190 | 2-5 | 3L | 28% | BEARISH | 154 |
| C | NY RANGERS | 28 | 42 | 70 | 0.40 | 230 | 3-4 | 4L | 42% | NEUTRAL | 167 |
| C | LOS ANGELES | 28 | 42 | 70 | 0.40 | 230 | 2-5 | 3L | 28% | BEARISH | 155 |
| C | CHICAGO | 26 | 44 | 70 | 0.37 | 250 | 3-4 | 2L | 42% | NEUTRAL | 185 |
| C | VANCOUVER | 21 | 48 | 69 | 0.30 | 260 | 2-5 | 2L | 28% | BEARISH | 216 |
BREAKING DOWN THE MVI METRICS
For those new to the Raymond Report methodology, the Market Value Index is a diagnostic tool used to determine if a team is overvalued or undervalued by the bookmakers.
- MARKET VALUE (MV): The average price you can expect to pay for a team based on their season-long performance.
- DAILY MARKET VALUE INDEX (DMVI): The “True Price” of the team based on current situational factors, strength of schedule, and recent form.
- VALUE INDEX (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH): A sentiment indicator. Bullish teams are outperforming their market price. Bearish teams are in a “fade” zone.
THE ELITE TIER: COLORADO AND CAROLINA
COLORADO (-250 MV)
The Avalanche remain the statistical giants of the NHL with a .67 win percentage. However, notice their Value Index is currently NEUTRAL. Why? Despite a 2-game win streak, they are only 3-4 in their last 7. The market is pricing them at -250, but their DMVI suggests a value of -205. They are currently “overpriced” in the short term. Proceed with caution when laying heavy juice on the Avs until that L7G record improves.
CAROLINA (-240 MV)
The Hurricanes are the gold standard for “A” Grade teams right now. At 5-2 in their last 7 games and riding a 3-game win streak, they carry a BULLISH sentiment. Their Confidence rating is a stout 71%. Unlike Colorado, Carolina is justifying its high market tag. For more on their situational trends, check out the Carolina Hurricanes situational preview.
THE SURGE: NASHVILLE AND PHILADELPHIA
NASHVILLE (4W STREAK)
Nashville is the biggest mover on the board today. Despite a “C” Grade and a .47 win percentage, they are currently on a 4-game heater. Their BULLISH status combined with a 71% confidence rating makes them a dangerous underdog or a short-priced favorite. Their MV is 150, but their DMVI is 129, meaning the market hasn’t fully caught up to their surge. We covered their trajectory in our Nashville vs Chicago breakdown.
PHILADELPHIA (3W STREAK)
The Flyers are mirroring Nashville’s path. A 5-2 run in their last 7 games has pushed them into Bullish territory. With a DMVI of 120 against an MV of 110, they are in a “sweet spot” for bettors looking for momentum-based plays.
BULLISH SLEEPERS: BUFFALO AND OTTAWA
If you are looking for “Value” with a capital V, look no further than Buffalo and Ottawa.
- BUFFALO (-220 MV): It is rare to see an “A” Grade team with a 5-2 L7G record labeled as Bullish when they are coming off a loss (1L). This indicates that the computer model sees their recent loss as a fluke. Buffalo’s DMVI of -196 is significantly lower than their -220 MV, suggesting they are consistently being backed by sharp money.
- OTTAWA (-120 MV): The Senators are a “B” Grade team that is currently 5-2 in their last 7 with a 2-game win streak. They face the NY Rangers today, a team in a massive slump. You can find the full analytical breakdown for that matchup here: Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers Free Stats.
SLUMP WATCH: THE BEARISH AND THE BROKEN
NY RANGERS (4L STREAK)
The Rangers are in a tailspin. 4 consecutive losses and a .40 win percentage. Interestingly, the model still has them as NEUTRAL. This is likely because the market has already adjusted their price to a +230 underdog (MV), and the DMVI (167) shows they are actually performing “better” than their +230 price would suggest, even while losing. It’s a classic “bottoming out” signal.
SAN JOSE & VANCOUVER
San Jose (4L) and Vancouver (2L) are currently in the BEARISH basement. Vancouver, in particular, has a DMVI of 216 against an MV of 260. They are the least profitable team in the league right now with a .30 win percentage. Until they can string together back-to-back wins, they remain an automatic fade.
HOW TO USE THE DMVI FOR TODAY’S CARD
The Daily Market Value Index (DMVI) is your most powerful tool for tonight’s NHL picks.
- Identify the Gap: Look for teams where the DMVI is significantly lower than the MV. For example, Ottawa has an MV of -120 but a DMVI of -170. This implies Ottawa is playing like a much stronger favorite than the current line suggests.
- Confidence vs. Streak: A high confidence (71%) paired with a win streak (Nashville/Carolina) is a green light.
- The Law of Averages: Teams like Toronto and Los Angeles are “Bearish” right now. According to the Law of Average Pick, these teams are due for a regression toward the mean, but without a “Neutral” shift in the Value Index, it’s too early to buy the dip.
For a deeper dive into these numbers and to see how they align with our AI-driven projections, visit the AIPL Consensus Report.
FINAL TAKE
The market is currently rewarding momentum. Carolina and Nashville are the clear targets for tonight’s action, while Colorado and Tampa Bay are being priced at a premium that their recent L7G form doesn’t quite support. Keep an eye on the “Bullish” sleepers in Buffalo and Ottawa to provide the best ROI on the board.
For more insights, listen to the latest episode of The Raymond Report Podcast, where we discuss NHL playoff previews and late-season betting strategies: Listen Here.
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