Favorites wobbling, underdogs cashing, and totals turning tricky — the NHL market just turned ice cold for chalk bettors.
The Sports Betting Index (SBI) from ATSstats.com is flashing a major warning sign: the once-steady run for favorites has collapsed, and the dog days of November are officially here. Over the last week, we’ve seen a full reversal in market dynamics — with underdogs barking across the board and puck-line players banking profits.
🧊 Straight-Up (SU): Chalk Losing Its Edge
Favorites SU: 58.2% – BULLISH (long-term)
Short-term: BEARISH to NEUTRAL
After a strong October, November’s brought turbulence:
- Yesterday (Nov 9): Favorites went 5–3 (63%), a modest rebound.
- Last 3 Days: 39% favorites SU — ugly.
- Last 7 Days: 47% favorites SU, right on the neutral line.
That’s the lowest three-day SU mark for favorites all season. The parity wave has hit hard, and overpriced home teams are getting ambushed nightly.
Trend read:
The overall YTD remains bullish (58%), but the cycle has clearly turned bearish. We’re now in a short-term underdog window, especially for disciplined bettors willing to play +140 to +180 price ranges.
Bettor tip: When favorites dip below 50% SU in a 7-day stretch, it’s time to fish for dogs. They’re not just covering — they’re winning outright.
🐾 Against the Spread (ATS): Dog Pound Still Barking Loud
Favorites ATS: 32.6% – BEARISH
Underdogs ATS: 67.5% – BULLISH
This might be the most one-sided trend in hockey betting right now. Favorites simply can’t cover the puck line:
- Nov 9: 1–7 ATS (13%)
- Last 3 Days: 9% favorites ATS
- Last 7 Days: 20.6% favorites ATS
The dog side has covered in 80% of games over the past week — that’s not just profitable, it’s a bankroll builder. The public keeps hammering chalk, and the market keeps rewarding contrarians.
Interpretation:
This is a textbook BEARISH ATS cycle — inflated prices, tight scoring margins, and volatile third periods. If you’ve been playing +1.5 or outright dogs, you’re winning. If you’re laying -1.5s, you’re losing in style.
🔥 Totals (O/U): Mixed Signals, But Slight Lean to the Under
Overs: 51.8% – NEUTRAL
Totals remain balanced league-wide, but momentum is slipping toward the Under:
- Nov 9: 29% Overs
- Last 3 Days: 39% Overs
- Last 7 Days: 53% Overs (flat)
That’s a sign of a tightening market. Oddsmakers have inflated totals after last week’s scoring bursts, and defenses (and goalies) have started catching up.
Key insight:
- Back-to-back fatigue is creating occasional Overs, but not enough to shift the curve.
- Discipline and structure are returning league-wide — meaning Overs need perfect storm conditions (tired defenses + elite offenses + bad goaltending).
Best approach:
Treat Overs and Unders like a 50-50 market right now. Cap every matchup. There’s no blanket angle.
📊 Market Overview
| Category | Trend | Rating | What’s Happening |
|---|---|---|---|
| SU Favorites | Cooling | BEARISH/Neutral | Dogs winning outright |
| ATS Favorites | Crashing | BEARISH | Puck-line dogs dominating |
| Totals | Balanced | NEUTRAL | Lines tightening; no clear edge |
🧠 Market Psychology
The pendulum has swung hard. The public spent three weeks betting chalk and Overs — and now the market is correcting. Favorites are losing value, goaltending variance is spiking, and the books have full control of line inflation.
Smart bettors aren’t chasing the same old power names; they’re shopping prices, not logos. When the numbers shift this dramatically, discipline is everything.
This is a perfect “fade-the-public” window. When bettors panic, value appears.
✅ Betting Blueprint for Monday, Nov 10
- Play underdogs SU and ATS — the momentum is on their side.
- Fade high-juice home favorites, especially those on short rest.
- Watch for Overs inflation — play Unders in games between structured defensive teams.
- Puck-line approach: +1.5 remains the most consistent edge in the NHL right now.
🏁 Final Word
The NHL betting market has officially turned. After a month of chalk dominance, the dogs have taken over — and they’re not done barking yet. Favorites remain overvalued, ATS covers are scarce, and totals have stabilized into a coin-flip market.
In short:
- Bet smart, not scared.
- Chase value, not brands.
- And keep your bankroll skating in the right direction.
Stay tuned for the daily Raymond Report power ratings, market cycles, and SBI updates at ATSstats.com — where cold data meets hot edges. 🧠🏒💰
