Chalk crashes, dogs dominate, and Overs wake up — the NHL market just flipped the script.
If you’ve been fading favorites, congratulations — this was your week. The Raymond Report Sports Betting Index (SBI) from ATSstats.com shows a dramatic shift in the NHL betting landscape: favorites are faltering, underdogs are roaring, and the puck-line dogs are on a heater that’s burning books league-wide.
After a month of steady chalk success, the market correction is here — and it’s hitting hard.
🧊 Straight-Up (SU): Underdog Uprising
Favorites SU: 58.2% – BULLISH (but cooling fast)
The long-term trend still says “bullish,” but the recent data tells the real story.
- Yesterday (Nov 7): Favorites 0–4 (0%)
- Last 3 Days: 31%
- Last 7 Days: 46%
That’s a total market reversal. For the first time in weeks, underdogs have taken over — going 54% SU over the last seven days and a stunning 69% over the last three days.
Interpretation:
The market was overvalued on chalk, and the law of averages finally hit the ice. Mid-tier and road teams (like the Islanders, Predators, and Coyotes) have pulled off upset wins while overpriced contenders have looked flat.
SU Betting Tip: It’s underdog season. Pick your spots carefully — road dogs with solid goaltending are cashing consistently right now.
🐾 Against the Spread (ATS): Dog Pound Still Barking
Favorites ATS: 33.8% – BEARISH
Underdogs ATS: 66.3% – BULLISH
This is where the real money is being made. For weeks, the dog side of the puck line has been the only safe house in hockey. That hasn’t changed — in fact, it’s gotten stronger.
- 1 Day: 0% favorites ATS
- 3 Days: 23.7% favorites ATS
- 7 Days: 21% favorites ATS
Those are ugly numbers for the chalk bettors but beautiful for those taking the +1.5 line or outright dogs at plus money.
Translation:
The public keeps laying -160s, -180s, even -220s, and the books are cleaning up. Smart bettors know that in a parity league like the NHL, +money is the only consistent edge.
🔥 Totals (O/U): Offense Heating Back Up
Over%: 52.3% – NEUTRAL to Slightly BULLISH
Scoring has ticked upward over the past week, led by tired legs, travel schedules, and power plays finally finding their rhythm.
- Nov 7: 1–3 O/U (Under night)
- 3-Day Trend: 64% Overs
- 7-Day Trend: 47%
- 1-Month Trend: 54%
We’re back to a balanced totals market — just enough scoring to keep Overs profitable, but not enough to call it a full-blown offensive trend.
Actionable read:
Target Overs in games involving teams in back-to-backs or with suspect goaltending depth (think San Jose, Columbus, Montreal). But don’t force it — the books have caught up on totals quickly.
📊 Market Summary
| Category | Trend | Rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| SU Favorites | Cooling | Neutral-to-Bearish short term | Underdogs cashing big |
| ATS Favorites | Bearish | 33.8% | Ride puck-line dogs |
| Totals | Slightly Bullish | 52.3% | Select Overs only |
🧠 Market Psychology
The public hates underdogs — and that’s exactly why they’re profitable right now. After a month of easy chalk wins, bettors got comfortable laying juice. The market’s response? Upsets galore.
Underdogs are hitting straight-up, ATS, and on the road, a trifecta of chaos that sharp bettors live for. The market is officially overextended, and the pendulum has swung hard toward value.
The best value right now lies in:
- Road dogs on rest
- Plus-money divisional matchups
- Underdogs against teams on the second of back-to-backs
✅ Betting Blueprint for Saturday, November 8
- Lean underdogs SU and ATS — momentum is on their side.
- Avoid big favorites unless they’re in elite home-rest situations.
- Look for short-line favorites (-120 or better) if you must play chalk.
- Watch the totals closely — overs are alive, but not blind bets.
🏁 Final Word
The NHL market has officially cooled on chalk and shifted into value-hunting mode. Favorites are no longer safe, puck-line dogs are printing tickets, and savvy bettors are scooping plus-money like it’s found cash.
Don’t chase yesterday’s favorites — adapt to today’s cycle.
This is how sharp players win while everyone else keeps blaming bad bounces.
For today’s updated SBI charts, Market Value Index, and daily premium picks, visit ATSstats.com — where smart data beats dumb luck. 🧠🏒💰
