Favorites steady, totals heating, and underdogs keep paying the rent. It’s a split market — but a profitable one if you know how to skate it.
The Sports Betting Index (SBI) from ATSstats.com gives us a sharp snapshot of how the NHL betting market is trending. With a full month of data to draw from, we’re now seeing clear identity patterns across all three betting lanes — straight-up (SU), against the spread (ATS), and totals (O/U).
The verdict:
Favorites are winning. Underdogs are covering. Totals are trying to figure themselves out.
Classic NHL market balance.
🧊 Straight-Up (SU): Chalk Holds Its Edge
Favorites SU: 61.1% — BULLISH
The chalk is holding firm, with favorites maintaining control of the SU market for several weeks now. Last night was no different:
- Nov 5: Favorites went 3–2 (60%)
- 3-Day Trend: 60%
- 7-Day Trend: 57.3%
That’s a steady bullish run but not an unstoppable one. Favorites are winning roughly six out of ten games, which is healthy for parlay players but not automatic profit for moneyline bettors due to heavy juice.
Key insight:
Favorites are dependable straight-up, but not dominant enough to justify laying -180s and -200s blindly. You win this market by identifying situational chalk — home teams with rest advantage or elite goaltending form.
🐾 Against the Spread (ATS): The Dog Pound is Cashing
Favorites ATS: 35.8% — BEARISH
Underdogs ATS: 64.3%
If you’ve been taking dogs on the puck line, congratulations — you’ve been cashing tickets while the public chases favorites.
Across every timeframe, the data tells one story: dogs cover.
- 1-Day: 40% fav cover
- 3-Day: 35% fav cover
- 7-Day: 33% fav cover
- YTD: 35.8%
That’s not a cold streak — that’s a market cycle. The public continues to overpay for brand-name teams, and sharp bettors are eating off inflated spreads. It’s the most consistent trend in hockey right now.
Strategy tip:
Take advantage of the ATS overreaction on teams like Toronto, Edmonton, and Vegas. Even when they win, they’re often squeaking by.
Betting takeaway: In this market, ugly dogs are beautiful bets.
🔥 Totals (O/U): Slightly Bullish, But Cooling Off
Over% YTD: 52.7% — NEUTRAL leaning BULLISH
Scoring has stabilized across the league, with Overs winning at a mild clip but no runaway trend.
Recent breakdown:
- 1 Day: 4–0–1 (100%)
- 3 Day: 63% Overs
- 7 Day: 49% Overs
- 1 Month: 52.7%
That spike in Overs last night gives a short-term bullish bump, but the one-month view remains balanced. Books have adjusted totals into the 6.5–7 range for several high-tempo teams, cutting into Over value.
Sharp read:
- Target Overs in cross-conference matchups with poor defensive chemistry.
- Unders are viable in divisional rivalry games where systems and familiarity slow the pace.
📊 Market Summary
| Category | Trend | Rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| SU Favorites | BULLISH | 61.1% | Steady chalk advantage |
| ATS Favorites | BEARISH | 35.8% | Ride the dogs |
| Totals (Over) | NEUTRAL → BULLISH short-term | 52.7% | Tactical Overs only |
🧠 Market Psychology
This market is the perfect storm for disciplined bettors:
- Public bettors are chasing favorites after SU wins.
- Sharps are cleaning up on puck-line underdogs.
- Totals bettors are forced to cap context instead of emotion.
That’s exactly when bankroll separation happens — between those following the noise and those following the data.
🏁 Final Word
The NHL market heading into November 6 is predictable for those who respect the cycles:
- Favorites are winning outright, but not covering enough to justify chalk chases.
- Dogs continue to dominate the puck-line economy.
- Totals are balanced, with last night’s Over sweep likely a short-term outlier.
In short: play discipline, not emotion.
Data doesn’t lie — it whispers. And right now, it’s saying bark bark.
Track the full daily SBI chart and get tonight’s value plays only at ATSstats.com — where bettors stop guessing and start understanding the game within the game. 🧠🏒💰
