The NHL season is just getting underway, and the early market signals are already showing their hand. After three nights of action, favorites have come out strong straight-up, but the puckline and totals markets are telling a very different story.
| Range | SU FAV % | SU Rating | O/U OVER % | O/U Rating | ATS FAV % | ATS Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | 64% | BULLISH | 50% | NEUTRAL | 29% | BEARISH |
| 3 Day | 52% | NEUTRAL | 41.7% | BEARISH | 29% | BEARISH |
| 7 Day | 52% | NEUTRAL | 41.7% | BEARISH | 29% | BEARISH |
| 1 Month | 52% | NEUTRAL | 41.7% | BEARISH | 29% | BEARISH |
| 2 Month | 52% | NEUTRAL | 41.7% | BEARISH | 29% | BEARISH |
| 3 Month | 52% | NEUTRAL | 41.7% | BEARISH | 29% | BEARISH |
| YTD | 52% | NEUTRAL | 41.7% | BEARISH | 29% | BEARISH |
| Date | SU FAV W-L | % | O/U (Over) | % | ATS FAV W-L | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | 9–5 | 64% | 7–7 | 50% | 4–10 | 29% |
| Oct 8 | 1–3 | 25% | 3–1 | 75% | 1–3 | 25% |
| Oct 7 | 2–1 | 67% | 0–3 | 0% | 1–2 | 33% |
Straight-Up (SU) – “Favorites Leading Early”
Favorites are off to a BULLISH 64% win rate on Thursday, bouncing back from a sluggish 25% on opening night. The YTD mark at 52% is right in the neutral zone — suggesting a fairly balanced market, but early sharp action continues leaning toward the chalk in good matchup spots.
Over/Under (Totals) – “Neutral-to-Bearish”
Scoring has normalized after the usual October fireworks. Through three nights, the OVER is hitting at 41.7%, which marks a BEARISH trend for goal totals. Early goaltending form and underdog defensive effort are keeping games tighter than expected.
Against the Spread (ATS/Puckline) – “Dog Market in Control”
No sugar-coating this one — it’s been all underdogs on the puckline. Dogs have covered 71% of games, meaning if you’ve been fading the favorites on the -1.5 puckline, you’re living like a king. This BEARISH reading on favorites is consistent across all lookback windows.
Interpretation: The early-season betting landscape shows sharp value on underdogs and unders, especially in spots where the public is overreacting to name-brand teams or elite goaltenders. The books are shading lines toward the favorites, but the numbers show more balance — meaning there’s opportunity for disciplined bettors to pick off overvalued favorites.
Treat this early stretch like the NHL preseason for bettors — let the market overadjust, stay disciplined, and remember:
📉 When the public chases chalk, the smart money shops for value.
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