NHL Sports Betting Report – Start of the 2025-26 Season

Favorites Winning, Bettors Losing – The NHL’s Early Season Contradiction

We’re just one week into the NHL season, and already the Raymond Report Sports Betting Index (SBI) is flashing a clear warning: favorites are winning straight up, but they’re not paying the bills.

Here’s the early breakdown:

• Straight-Up Favorites: 59.2% (Bullish)
• ATS Favorites (Puck Line): 22.5% (Bearish)
• Totals – Overs: 56.3% (Neutral)

That’s right — chalk bettors are celebrating the wins, but the puck-line players are getting smoked. Early season parity, travel, and goaltending volatility have combined to make this one of the most underdog-friendly starts in years.

🚨 Straight-Up (SU): Chalk Still Has Edge, but Watch the Line

Through the opening week:

• Favorites: 28-20 (58.3%)
• Underdogs: 20-28 (41.7%)

From a straight-up perspective, the favorites have done their job — nothing too shocking here. That’s about average for October hockey when talent starts to settle in and elite teams flex.

But there’s more to it. Road favorites have been especially strong at 70% SU, while home favorites are just 50% SU. So far, the home crowd hasn’t been the advantage it once was — and bettors taking home chalk are paying for it.

🐶 Against the Spread (ATS / Puck Line): Dogs Barking Loud and Clear

If you’ve been blindly betting the underdog on the puck line (+1.5), you’ve been laughing all the way to the cashier.

• ATS Favorites: 14-34 (29.2%)
• ATS Underdogs: 34-14 (70.8%)

That’s not just a trend — that’s a massive market imbalance.

Home underdogs have been excellent, covering 65% of the time, while road dogs are cashing at a blistering 75% ATS. This early in the season, books are still adjusting to new lineups, goalie rotations, and early-season rust, and sharp bettors are capitalizing on inflated chalk lines.

In other words — if you’re laying -1.5 early in the season, you’re basically betting on miracles.

🔥 Over/Under: Scoring Staying Steady (For Now)

The totals market is doing what the NHL always does early: lots of volatility, but nothing extreme yet.

• Overs: 54.2% overall (Neutral)
• Unders: 45.8%

Games with a total of 5.5 goals are producing the most fireworks:

• Over: 60% of the time on both home and road splits.

But as the goalies settle in and teams shake off the early-season chaos, expect totals to drift back toward equilibrium. Historically, by late October, the Over/Under market cools down as defensive systems tighten up.

🏠 Home vs. Road: Road Teams Own the Ice

The road warriors have come to play:

Road favorites have dominated straight-up (70%), while road dogs are an insane 75% ATS. It’s clear: travel hasn’t slowed anyone down yet, and the home-ice advantage has been overrated out of the gate.

If you’re fading road teams early this year — you’re skating uphill.

📊 Raymond Report Summary – NHL Opening Trends

🧊 The Raymond Report Takeaway

Early in every NHL season, chaos rules the ice — and this year is no different. The numbers are crystal clear:

• Don’t lay the puck line early; underdogs are cashing like crazy.
• Road teams are outperforming expectations — the travel fatigue narrative doesn’t exist yet.
• Totals are steady, but Overs might have peaked.

This is where the pros separate from the public. The sharp side isn’t picking teams — it’s picking spots. Cycle management, value, and market awareness are everything in October hockey.

🏒 Get More Daily NHL Reports

Track every day’s SBI updates, 80% Club trends, and Market Value Index charts for all NHL matchups at:
👉 www.ATSstats.com

Because in the NHL, it’s not who you pick — it’s when you pick them.