We’re just one week into the NHL season, and already the Raymond Report Sports Betting Index (SBI) is flashing a clear warning: favorites are winning straight up, but they’re not paying the bills.
Here’s the early breakdown:
That’s right — chalk bettors are celebrating the wins, but the puck-line players are getting smoked. Early season parity, travel, and goaltending volatility have combined to make this one of the most underdog-friendly starts in years.
Through the opening week:
From a straight-up perspective, the favorites have done their job — nothing too shocking here. That’s about average for October hockey when talent starts to settle in and elite teams flex.
But there’s more to it. Road favorites have been especially strong at 70% SU, while home favorites are just 50% SU. So far, the home crowd hasn’t been the advantage it once was — and bettors taking home chalk are paying for it.
If you’ve been blindly betting the underdog on the puck line (+1.5), you’ve been laughing all the way to the cashier.
That’s not just a trend — that’s a massive market imbalance.
Home underdogs have been excellent, covering 65% of the time, while road dogs are cashing at a blistering 75% ATS. This early in the season, books are still adjusting to new lineups, goalie rotations, and early-season rust, and sharp bettors are capitalizing on inflated chalk lines.
In other words — if you’re laying -1.5 early in the season, you’re basically betting on miracles.
The totals market is doing what the NHL always does early: lots of volatility, but nothing extreme yet.
Games with a total of 5.5 goals are producing the most fireworks:
But as the goalies settle in and teams shake off the early-season chaos, expect totals to drift back toward equilibrium. Historically, by late October, the Over/Under market cools down as defensive systems tighten up.
The road warriors have come to play:
Category | SU % | ATS % | O/U % |
---|---|---|---|
Home Teams | 41.7% | 41.7% | 54.2% |
Road Teams | 58.3% | 58.3% | 54.2% |
Road favorites have dominated straight-up (70%), while road dogs are an insane 75% ATS. It’s clear: travel hasn’t slowed anyone down yet, and the home-ice advantage has been overrated out of the gate.
If you’re fading road teams early this year — you’re skating uphill.
Market | Trend | SBI Rating | Key Insight |
---|---|---|---|
SU Favorites | 59.2% | Bullish | Winning, but mostly on the road |
ATS Favorites | 22.5% | Bearish | Brutal start for puck-line chalk |
Overs | 56.3% | Neutral | Totals stabilizing near 50% |
Home Underdogs | 65% ATS | Bullish | Money in the bank early |
Road Underdogs | 75% ATS | Extremely Bullish | Hottest bet on the board |
Early in every NHL season, chaos rules the ice — and this year is no different. The numbers are crystal clear:
This is where the pros separate from the public. The sharp side isn’t picking teams — it’s picking spots. Cycle management, value, and market awareness are everything in October hockey.
Track every day’s SBI updates, 80% Club trends, and Market Value Index charts for all NHL matchups at:
👉 www.ATSstats.com
Because in the NHL, it’s not who you pick — it’s when you pick them.
Tuesday night brings another loaded NHL board with a mix of hot teams, tricky travel…
Eight-gamer tonight: four in the early TV window, four out West. Market’s leaning to chalk,…
If you’ve been following the Raymond Report Power Ratings (PR), you know the formula…
Straight-Up (SU) Favorites Dominate – But Not Early Six weeks into the 2025 NFL…
📍 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA ⏰ Kickoff: 7:15 PM ET 💰 Line: Bills -3.5 (-208)…
Source: Raymond Report 80% Club Database 📊 Key System Angles & Matchup Trends for Tonight’s…