Philadelphia Flyers (6.5) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-160) Preview & Prediction (11/09/2019)

The Philadelphia Flyers will be on the road Saturday taking the ice against the Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. The Flyers will be looking for a third consecutive win after beating the Montreal Canadiens 3-2 on Thursday. The Maple Leafs will be looking for their fourth win in a row after beating the Las Vegas Golden Knights 2-1 their last time on the ice.

 

The Philadelphia Flyers are now 8-5-2 following a 3-2 win in overtime at home against the Montreal Canadiens. The Flyers were able to outshoot Montreal 43-24 with both teams winning 25 faceoffs. Philadelphia was unable to score a goal on any of their six power-play opportunities and never had to skate shorthanded in the game. They had 12 blocked shots and nine takeaways in the game.

 

The Flyers have been good for an average of 3.27 goals per game this season while giving up 3.07 to their opponents. They have been able to fire 35.1 shots per game while allowing 28.1 on the defensive end of the ice. Philadelphia has scored 13 power-play goals for a 21.7 conversion rate to go with an 83.7 penalty kill percentage.

 

The Toronto Maple Leafs have now won three in a row following a 2-1 win at home in overtime against the Las Vegas Golden Knights. The Maple Leafs were outshot 37-38 in the game but managed to win 36 of 67 faceoffs. Toronto was able to find the net on one of their six power-play opportunities while defending the net each of the five times they were forced to skate with a man in the box. They had 19 blocked shots and seven takeaways in the game.

 

Toronto has been able to find the back of the net for an average of 3.35 goals per game for the season while giving up 3.12 to their opponents. They have been able to fire an average of 31.9 shots per game while allowing 33.1 on the defensive end of the ice. They have 10 power-play goals this season for a 17.2 conversion rate to go with a 77.4 penalty kill percentage.

 

The Maple Leafs will take the ice as -165 favorites on Saturday with the total sitting at 6.5 in the game. These teams are almost identical when it comes to goals per night and goals allowed. According to the numbers, the Flyers are stronger both on the power-play and when skating a man down. Still, I’m thinking a loud weekend crowd will be the push the Leafs need to get the win at home. My money is on Toronto in this one.

 

Philadelphia is 2-9 in their previous 11 games as an underdog playing on the road.

Philadelphia is 0-8 in their previous eight games on the road vs. a team with a winning record at home.

Toronto is 4-1 in their previous five games as a favorite.

Toronto is 5-2 in their previous seven games as a favorite at home.

 

 

Philadelphia Flyers 1.5   ( 140 ) Vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5  ( -160 ) Vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers

Philadelphia Flyers
O/U :6.5

Vs.
Date: 2019-11-09
Time: 19:05:00

Generated from
Previous Games
Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto Maple Leafs
SIDE :-160

2.85 Forecast
(O/U 6.54 )
3.69
40% C.O.W 24%
55% C.O.G.O 55%
104 DMVI -111
(B) NEUTRAL MVI (B) NEUTRAL
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? (NBA,NHL & MLB)
C.O.W. = (Chances of Winning) – The ‘C.O.W.’ percentage is based on a teams win/lost record using their short and long-term win/lost record. After we process it through our ‘math predictor’, we then provide a ‘CHANCES OF WINNING’ percentage for their next game, which let’s you know if there’s any value on betting that team.

C.O.G.O. = (Chances Game Going OVER) – The ‘C.O.G.O.’ percentage is based on both teams OVER/UNDER record, using both teams short and long-term OVER/UNDER records. After we process it through our ‘math predictor’, we then provide a ‘CHANCES OF COVERING’ percentage for that game, which let’s you know if there’s any value on the OVER in that game.
*Note: If there’s a 60% chance of the game going OVER, that means, there’s a 40% chance of the game going UNDER.

DMVI = (Daily Market Value Index) – The DMVI is our researched and calculated line compared to the bookmaker’s line. When calculating the DMVI, we look for the margin of error between the bookmaker’s line, the final result of a game and then produce the value of what the line should be in the next game for both teams. The DMVI is a tool to find value vs. the current line.

VI = (Value Index) – The Value Index is the current psychology of the betting public, based on a teams 7-game cycle.

  • BULLISH = Team is either (7-0, 6-1, or 5-2) in their last 7 games.
  • NEUTRAL = Team is either (3-4 or 4-3) in their last 7 games.
  • BEARISH = Team is either (0-7, 1-6 or 2-5) in their last 7 games.

L.O.A. = (Law of Average) – The “Law of Average” edge is based on the 50/50 theory. Play on a team that lost against the spread (ATS) or straight up (SU) in their last game, vs. a team that won against the spread (ATS) or straight up (SU) in their last game.

Raymond Report
Philadelphia Flyers Toronto Maple Leafs
Season Record : 7-7 Season Record : 8-8
Away Record : 2-5 Away Record : 3-3
Home Record : 5-2 Home Record : 5-5
Line : 1.5 Line : -1.5
O/U : 6.5 O/U : 6.5
LINEMOVES LINEMOVES
Last game: Won 2 – 3 vs Montreal Canadiens Last game: Won 1 – 2 vs Vegas Golden Knights
SU: 20-16 ATS: 24-13-0 O/U: 20-15-2
SU: 2-1 ATS: 2-1-0 O/U: 1-1-1
Current game: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Current game: vs. Philadelphia Flyers
SU: 23-24 ATS: 25-23-0 O/U: 19-26-3
SU: 24-23 ATS: 23-25-0 O/U: 19-26-3
Next Game: At BOSTON Next Game: At CHICAGO
SU: 14-15 ATS: 17-16-0 O/U: 15-15-3
SU: 10-14 ATS: 11-15-0 O/U: 17-7-2
Days Rest : 1 (Road) Days Rest : 1 (Home)
(L) SU:  (40.2 %) ATS:  (52.7%) O/U: (48.2%)
(L) SU: (58.3%) ATS: (49.2%) O/U: (49.2%)
(T) SU: (0-1) ATS: (0-1-0) O/U: (1-0-0)
(T) SU: (1-2) ATS: (0-3-0) O/U: (1-2-0)
Streaks : 2 SU Win – 1 ATS Lost – 2 Under Streaks : 3 SU Win – 1 ATS Lost – 2 Under
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 48.98% Home Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 51.02%
Home Favorite: 3 Win -1 Lost   (GF)4 – (GA)2.75 Home Favorite: 5 Win -5 Lost   (GF)3.6 – (GA)3.4
Home Underdog: 2 Win -1 Lost   (GF)4.33 – (GA)2.33 Home Underdog: 0 Win -0 Lost   (GF)N/A – (GA)N/A
Road Favorite: 0 Win -0 Lost   (GF)N/A – (GA)N/A Road Favorite: 3 Win -0 Lost   (GF)4.33 – (GA)2
Road Underdog: 2 Win -5 Lost   (GF)2.57 – (GA)4 Road Underdog: 0 Win -3 Lost   (GF)2.33 – (GA)4.33
Last 3 game: 2 Win 1 Lost    (GF)3.33 – (GA)2.33 Last 3 game: 3 Win 0 Lost    (GF)3 – (GA)1.67
Last 5 game: 3 Win 2 Lost    (GF)3 – (GA)3.4 Last 5 game: 3 Win 2 Lost    (GF)2.8 – (GA)2.8
Last 7 game: 4 Win 3 Lost   (GF)3.57 – (GA)3.71 Last 7 game: 4 Win 3 Lost   (GF)2.86 – (GA)2.71
Last 10 game: 6 Win 4 Lost   (GF)3.6 – (GA)3.3 Last 10 game: 5 Win 5 Lost   (GF)3 – (GA)3
Last 15 game: 8 Win 7 Lost   (GF)3.33 – (GA)3.2 Last 15 game: 7 Win 8 Lost   (GF)3.27 – (GA)3.33
Situations (Philadelphia Flyers) Situations (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Coming off a vs. Atlantic division Opponent. (MTL) Coming off a home fav win (Vegas)
Coming off a home fav win Coming off a 3 game winning streak
Coming off a 2 game winning streak Coming off 2 unders
Coming off 2 unders Scored 2 or more goals FOR in last game
Scored 3 or more goals FOR in last game Scored 1 goal AGAINST in last game
Scored 2 or less goals AGAINST in last game Coming off a scored 1 goal AGAINST in last game
Coming off a scored 2 goals AGAINST in last game Coming off a scored 2 goals FOR in last game
Coming off a scored 3 goals FOR in last game Coming off 2 game home stand
Coming off a 1 goal win Coming off a 1 goal win
Coming off 3 game home stand Coming off 1 day off
Trends Trends
Query ATS SU O/U
Query ATS SU O/U

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