Toronto Maple Leafs (-113) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (6.5) Preview & Prediction (12/03/2019)

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be on the road Tuesday taking the ice against the Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. Toronto will be looking for back-to-back wins after beating the Buffalo Sabres 2-1 in overtime in Toronto on Saturday. The Flyers will be looking for a fifth consecutive win after beating the Canadiens 3-4 in overtime their last time on the ice.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are now 13-11-4 following a 2-1 overtime win at home against the Buffalo Sabres. The Maple Leafs were able to outshoot Buffalo 43-30 in the game while winning 29 of 54 faceoffs. Toronto was able to score a goal on their only power-play opportunity while defending the net both of the times they were forced to skate shorthanded. They had 11 blocked shots and eight takeaways in the game.

The Maple Leafs have been good for an average of 3.29 goals per game this season while giving up 3.21 to their opponents. They have been able to fire 33.9 shots per game while allowing 33.1 on the defensive end of the ice. Toronto has scored 16 power-play goals for a 19.5 conversion rate to go with a 75.0 penalty kill percentage.

The Philadelphia Flyers are now 15-7-5 on the season following a 3-4 overtime win against the Canadiens in Montreal. Philadelphia was outshot 29-42 in the game while winning 33 of 60 faceoffs. The Flyers were unable to score a goal on either of their two power-play opportunities while defending the net two of the three times they were forced to skate with a man in the box. They had 11 blocked shots and four takeaways in the game.

Philadelphia has been able to find the back of the net for an average of 3.04 goals per game for the season while giving up 2.70 to their opponents. They have been able to fire an average of 33.1 shots per game while allowing 29.3 on the defensive end of the ice. They have 19 power-play goals this season for a 19.8 conversion rate to go with an 85.7 penalty kill percentage.

Both of these teams will take the ice at -110 odds with the total sitting at six and a half on the game. I’m liking the total going over in this one. Each team is scoring over three goals per game and they have both gone through some issues defending the net. I look for this game to be close but with a higher score. I could easily see the Flyers winning 3-4 or even 5-4. My money’s on the total going over six and a half in a close game.

NHL Stats and Trends:

  • The over is 6-1 in Toronto’s previous seven games vs. the Metropolitan division.
  • The over in 9-3 in Toronto’s last 12 games after allowing two goals or less in the previous game.
  • The over is 7-3 in Toronto’s previous 10 games on the road.
Toronto Maple Leafs    ( -113 ) Vs. Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers   ( -107 ) Vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs (-113) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (6.5) Preview & Prediction (12/03/2019)

Toronto Maple Leafs
SIDE :-113

Vs.
Date: 2019-12-03
Time: 19:05:00

Generated from
Previous Games
Toronto Maple Leafs (-113) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (6.5) Preview & Prediction (12/03/2019)

Philadelphia Flyers
O/U :6.5

3.43 Forecast
(O/U 6.58 )
3.15
43% C.O.W 22%
50% C.O.G.O 50%
-171 DMVI -219
(C) NEUTRAL MVI (B) NEUTRAL
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? (NBA,NHL & MLB)
C.O.W. = (Chances of Winning) – The ‘C.O.W.’ percentage is based on a teams win/lost record using their short and long-term win/lost record. After we process it through our ‘math predictor’, we then provide a ‘CHANCES OF WINNING’ percentage for their next game, which let’s you know if there’s any value on betting that team.

C.O.G.O. = (Chances Game Going OVER) – The ‘C.O.G.O.’ percentage is based on both teams OVER/UNDER record, using both teams short and long-term OVER/UNDER records. After we process it through our ‘math predictor’, we then provide a ‘CHANCES OF COVERING’ percentage for that game, which let’s you know if there’s any value on the OVER in that game.
*Note: If there’s a 60% chance of the game going OVER, that means, there’s a 40% chance of the game going UNDER.

DMVI = (Daily Market Value Index) – The DMVI is our researched and calculated line compared to the bookmaker’s line. When calculating the DMVI, we look for the margin of error between the bookmaker’s line, the final result of a game and then produce the value of what the line should be in the next game for both teams. The DMVI is a tool to find value vs. the current line.

VI = (Value Index) – The Value Index is the current psychology of the betting public, based on a teams 7-game cycle.

  • BULLISH = Team is either (7-0, 6-1, or 5-2) in their last 7 games.
  • NEUTRAL = Team is either (3-4 or 4-3) in their last 7 games.
  • BEARISH = Team is either (0-7, 1-6 or 2-5) in their last 7 games.

L.O.A. = (Law of Average) – The “Law of Average” edge is based on the 50/50 theory. Play on a team that lost against the spread (ATS) or straight up (SU) in their last game, vs. a team that won against the spread (ATS) or straight up (SU) in their last game.

Raymond Report
Toronto Maple Leafs Philadelphia Flyers
Season Record : 13-15 Season Record : 15-12
Away Record : 6-8 Away Record : 7-7
Home Record : 7-7 Home Record : 8-5
Line : Line :
O/U : 6.5 O/U : 6.5
LINEMOVES LINEMOVES
Last game: Won 1 – 2 vs Buffalo Sabres Last game: Won 4 – 3 vs Montreal Canadiens
SU: 19-23 ATS: 26-16-1 O/U: 23-17-3
SU: 25-23 ATS: 21-31-0 O/U: 27-18-7
Current game: vs. Philadelphia Flyers Current game: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
SU: 19-30 ATS: 21-28-0 O/U: 20-19-10
SU: 30-19 ATS: 28-21-0 O/U: 20-19-10
Next Game: Vs. COLORADO Next Game: Vs. ARIZONA
SU: 5-10 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 7-8-1
SU: 8-2 ATS: 5-5-1 O/U: 4-6-1
Days Rest : 2 (Road) Days Rest : 2 (Home)
(L) SU:  (52.9 %) ATS:  (58.6%) O/U: (54%)
(L) SU: (57.8%) ATS: (45.1%) O/U: (48%)
(T) SU: (0-2) ATS: (1-1-0) O/U: (1-1-0)
(T) SU: (1-2) ATS: (2-1-0) O/U: (0-3-0)
Streaks : Streaks :
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: % Home Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: %
Home Favorite: 7 Win -7 Lost   (GF)3.14 – (GA)3.07 Home Favorite: 6 Win -2 Lost   (GF)3.63 – (GA)2.25
Home Underdog: 0 Win -0 Lost   (GF)N/A – (GA)N/A Home Underdog: 2 Win -3 Lost   (GF)3.4 – (GA)2.6
Road Favorite: 5 Win -2 Lost   (GF)4.57 – (GA)2.86 Road Favorite: 0 Win -1 Lost   (GF)1 – (GA)2
Road Underdog: 1 Win -6 Lost   (GF)2.43 – (GA)4.14 Road Underdog: 7 Win -6 Lost   (GF)2.92 – (GA)3.46
Last 3 game: 2 Win 1 Lost    (GF)4 – (GA)2.33 Last 3 game: 3 Win 0 Lost    (GF)4.33 – (GA)2
Last 5 game: 4 Win 1 Lost    (GF)4 – (GA)2.2 Last 5 game: 4 Win 1 Lost    (GF)3.4 – (GA)2
Last 7 game: 4 Win 3 Lost   (GF)3.29 – (GA)3 Last 7 game: 5 Win 2 Lost   (GF)3.43 – (GA)2.57
Last 10 game: 4 Win 6 Lost   (GF)3.3 – (GA)3.5 Last 10 game: 5 Win 5 Lost   (GF)2.9 – (GA)2.6
Last 15 game: 7 Win 8 Lost   (GF)3.13 – (GA)3.13 Last 15 game: 9 Win 6 Lost   (GF)3 – (GA)2.47
Situations (Toronto Maple Leafs) Situations (Philadelphia Flyers)
Coming off a vs. Atlantic division Opponent. (BUF) Coming off a vs. Atlantic division Opponent. (MTL)
Coming off a home fav win Coming off a road underdog win
Coming off 1 game winning streak Coming off a 4 game winning streak
Coming off 1 under Coming off 2 overs
Scored 2 or more goals FOR in last game Scored 4 or more goals FOR in last game
Scored 1 goal AGAINST in last game Scored 3 or less goals AGAINST in last game
Coming off a scored 1 goal AGAINST in last game Coming off a scored 3 goals AGAINST in last game
Coming off a scored 2 goals FOR in last game Coming off a scored 4 goals FOR in last game
Coming off a 1 goal win Coming off a 1 goal win
Coming off 2 days off Coming off 2 days off
Trends Trends
Query ATS SU O/U
Query ATS SU O/U
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Home team as a Underdog – After a conference game – Coming off a 1 goal win 9-1-0 5-5 4-5-1
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Home team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 9-2-0 5-6 4-4-3
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Home team as a Underdog – With 2 days off 9-2-0 4-7 4-3-4
When PHILADELPHIA team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – After a conference game – Allowed 3 or less goals AGAINST in their last game 16-6-0 9-13 16-4-2

 

 

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