Toronto Maple Leafs (6.5) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-145) Preview & Prediction (11/19/2019)

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be on the road Tuesday taking the ice against the Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The Maple Leafs will be looking to snap their losing streak following a 6-1 loss against the Penguins in Pittsburgh on Saturday. The Golden Knights will be looking for back-to-back wins after beating the Calgary Flames 6-0 on Sunday.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are now 9-9-4 on the season following a 6-1 loss to the Penguins in Pittsburgh. The Maple Leafs were outshot 33-38 in the game while winning 39 of 57 faceoffs. Toronto was unable to score on either of their two power-play opportunities and was unable to defend the net the one time they were forced to skate shorthanded. They had five blocked shots and one takeaway in the game.

The Maple Leafs have been good for an average of 3.18 goals per game this season while giving up 3.41 to their opponents. They have been able to fire 33.2 shots per game while allowing 33.2 on the defensive end of the ice. Toronto has scored 12 power-play goals for a 16.7 conversion rate to go with a 75.0 penalty kill percentage.

The Vegas Golden Knights  are now 10-9-3 on the season following a 6-0 win at home against the Calgary Flames. Las Vegas was able to outshoot the Flames 37-34 in the game while winning 41 of 70 faceoffs. The Golden Knights were able to light the lantern on one of their three power-play opportunities while defending the net both of the times they were forced to skate with a man in the box. They had 20 blocked shots and nine takeaways in the game.

Las Vegas has been able to find the back of the net for an average of 3.00 goals per game for the season while giving up 2.95 to their opponents. They have been able to fire an average of 33.8 shots per game while allowing 31.7 on the defensive end of the ice. They have 16 power-play goals this season for a 21.6 conversion rate to go with an 87.2 penalty kill percentage.

The Knights will take the ice as -145 favorites while the Maple Leafs will skate as 125 underdogs. The total for the game is sitting at six and a half. I’m really liking the total going over 6.5 in this game. Both teams are scoring at least three goals per night while giving up around the same number.

Las Vegas has better numbers both on the power-play and skating a man down and with both of these teams spending a ton of time in the box, the power-play will be a factor in this game. That being said, Las Vegas has already scored five shorthanded goals on the year. I think that number increases on Tuesday. My money is on the over.

NHL Stats and Trends:

  • The over is 3-0-1 in Toronto’s previous four games.
  • The over is 3-0-1 in Toronto’s last four after giving up at least five goals in the previous game.
  • The over is 4-0 in Golden Knight’s last four after scoring at least five goals in the previous game.
Toronto Maple Leafs    ( 125 ) Vs. Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights   ( -145 ) Vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs (6.5) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-145) Preview & Prediction (11/19/2019)

Toronto Maple Leafs
O/U :6.5

Vs.
Date: 2019-11-19
Time: 22:05:00

Generated from
Previous Games
Toronto Maple Leafs (6.5) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-145) Preview & Prediction (11/19/2019)

Vegas Golden Knights
SIDE :-145

3.33 Forecast
(O/U 6.74 )
3.41
80% C.O.W 61%
29% C.O.G.O 29%
105 DMVI -123
(C) NEUTRAL MVI (C) BEARISH
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? (NBA,NHL & MLB)
C.O.W. = (Chances of Winning) – The ‘C.O.W.’ percentage is based on a teams win/lost record using their short and long-term win/lost record. After we process it through our ‘math predictor’, we then provide a ‘CHANCES OF WINNING’ percentage for their next game, which let’s you know if there’s any value on betting that team.

C.O.G.O. = (Chances Game Going OVER) – The ‘C.O.G.O.’ percentage is based on both teams OVER/UNDER record, using both teams short and long-term OVER/UNDER records. After we process it through our ‘math predictor’, we then provide a ‘CHANCES OF COVERING’ percentage for that game, which let’s you know if there’s any value on the OVER in that game.
*Note: If there’s a 60% chance of the game going OVER, that means, there’s a 40% chance of the game going UNDER.

DMVI = (Daily Market Value Index) – The DMVI is our researched and calculated line compared to the bookmaker’s line. When calculating the DMVI, we look for the margin of error between the bookmaker’s line, the final result of a game and then produce the value of what the line should be in the next game for both teams. The DMVI is a tool to find value vs. the current line.

VI = (Value Index) – The Value Index is the current psychology of the betting public, based on a teams 7-game cycle.

  • BULLISH = Team is either (7-0, 6-1, or 5-2) in their last 7 games.
  • NEUTRAL = Team is either (3-4 or 4-3) in their last 7 games.
  • BEARISH = Team is either (0-7, 1-6 or 2-5) in their last 7 games.

L.O.A. = (Law of Average) – The “Law of Average” edge is based on the 50/50 theory. Play on a team that lost against the spread (ATS) or straight up (SU) in their last game, vs. a team that won against the spread (ATS) or straight up (SU) in their last game.

Raymond Report
Toronto Maple Leafs Vegas Golden Knights
Season Record : 9-13 Season Record : 10-12
Away Record : 3-6 Away Record : 5-6
Home Record : 6-7 Home Record : 5-6
Line : Line :
O/U : 6.5 O/U : 6.5
LINEMOVES LINEMOVES
Last game: Lost 1 – 6 vs Pittsburgh Penguins Last game: Won 0 – 6 vs Calgary Flames
SU: 15-19 ATS: 19-16-0 O/U: 16-16-3
SU: 4-0 ATS: 3-1-0 O/U: 2-2-0
Current game: vs. Vegas Golden Knights Current game: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
SU: 1-1 ATS: 1-1-0 O/U: 2-0-0
SU: 1-1 ATS: 1-1-0 O/U: 2-0-0
Next Game: At ARIZONA Next Game: Vs. SAN JOSE
SU: 9-12 ATS: 11-10-0 O/U: 9-10-2
SU: 4-1 ATS: 4-1-0 O/U: 1-3-1
Days Rest : 2 (Road) Days Rest : 1 (Home)
(L) SU:  (53.1 %) ATS:  (56.3%) O/U: (56.3%)
(L) SU: (58%) ATS: (47.5%) O/U: (48.8%)
(T) SU: (0-1) ATS: (1-0-0) O/U: (1-0-0)
(T) SU: (3-2) ATS: (2-3-0) O/U: (4-1-0)
Streaks : Streaks :
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: % Home Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: %
Home Favorite: 6 Win -7 Lost   (GF)3.23 – (GA)3.23 Home Favorite: 5 Win -6 Lost   (GF)3.64 – (GA)3.27
Home Underdog: 0 Win -0 Lost   (GF)N/A – (GA)N/A Home Underdog: 0 Win -0 Lost   (GF)N/A – (GA)N/A
Road Favorite: 3 Win -1 Lost   (GF)4.25 – (GA)2.75 Road Favorite: 5 Win -4 Lost   (GF)2.78 – (GA)2.44
Road Underdog: 0 Win -5 Lost   (GF)2.4 – (GA)4.8 Road Underdog: 0 Win -2 Lost   (GF)1.5 – (GA)3.5
Last 3 game: 0 Win 3 Lost    (GF)2.33 – (GA)5 Last 3 game: 1 Win 2 Lost    (GF)4 – (GA)3
Last 5 game: 0 Win 5 Lost    (GF)2.6 – (GA)4.6 Last 5 game: 1 Win 4 Lost    (GF)3.2 – (GA)3.4
Last 7 game: 2 Win 5 Lost   (GF)2.57 – (GA)3.57 Last 7 game: 2 Win 5 Lost   (GF)2.71 – (GA)2.86
Last 10 game: 3 Win 7 Lost   (GF)2.7 – (GA)3.7 Last 10 game: 3 Win 7 Lost   (GF)3.1 – (GA)3.1
Last 15 game: 5 Win 10 Lost   (GF)2.87 – (GA)3.53 Last 15 game: 6 Win 9 Lost   (GF)2.8 – (GA)3.07
Situations (Toronto Maple Leafs) Situations (Vegas Golden Knights)
Coming off a road underdog lost (PIT) Coming off a home fav win (CAL)
Coming off a 5 or more game losing streak Coming off 1 game winning streak
Coming off 1 over Coming off 1 push
Scored 1 goal FOR in last game Scored 6 or more goals FOR in last game
Scored 6 or more goals AGAINST in last game Scored 0 or less goals AGAINST in last game
Coming off a scored 6 goals AGAINST in last game Coming off a scored 0 goals AGAINST in last game
Coming off a scored 1 goal FOR in last game Coming off a scored 6 goals FOR in last game
Coming off a 5 goal loss Coming off a 6 goal win
Coming off 2 days off 3 game in 4 nights
Coming off 1 day off
Trends Trends
Query ATS SU O/U
When ANY NHL Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During the month of November – Total is 6.5 – Before a non division game – Coming off vs Eastern Conference opponent – Coming off 1 over 13-3-0 9-7 9-7-0
Query ATS SU O/U

 

 

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