Ohio State Struggles with Point Spread vs. Top Teams

The Ohio State Buckeyes football team has been a powerhouse in college football but has shown some vulnerability against the point spread, especially when playing against teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher. In their last 10 games against such opponents, the Buckeyes struggled against the spread, covering only 3 times. Out of these 10 games, they were only an underdog once against the Georgia Bulldogs.

Below, we will analyze the Buckeyes’ performance against the point spread, focusing on these 10 games, and discuss what it could mean for future matchups.

Game-by-Game Analysis

1. 2022-12-31 vs. Georgia: (+4.5) 42-41, ATS Winner: Ohio State, SU Winner: Georgia, O/U: O

• The only game where Ohio State was an underdog, they managed to cover the spread against Georgia in a closely contested game.

1. 2022-11-26 vs. Michigan: (-8.5) 23-45, ATS Winner: Michigan, SU Winner: Michigan, O/U: O

• A surprising loss to Michigan where Ohio State was unable to cover an 8.5 point spread.

1. 2022-11-19 vs. Maryland: (-25) 30-43, ATS Winner: Maryland, SU Winner: Ohio State, O/U: O

• Another failure to cover the spread, this time against Maryland, even though they won the game.

1. 2022-10-29 vs. Penn State: (-16) 31-44, ATS Winner: Penn State, SU Winner: Ohio State, O/U: O

• Despite a win, Ohio State couldn’t cover the 16 point spread against Penn State.

1. 2022-10-01 vs. Rutgers: (-39) 49-10, ATS Winner: TIE, SU Winner: Ohio State, O/U: O

• An overwhelming victory over Rutgers, but the spread was a perfect tie.

1. 2022-09-24 vs. Wisconsin: (-19) 52-21, ATS Winner: Ohio State, SU Winner: Ohio State, O/U: O

• A strong win over Wisconsin where Ohio State did cover the spread.

1. 2022-09-17 vs. Toledo: (-31) 77-21, ATS Winner: Ohio State, SU Winner: Ohio State, O/U: O

• A dominant performance against Toledo allowed Ohio State to cover the spread comfortably.

1. 2022-09-10 vs. Arkansas State: (-44.5) 45-12, ATS Winner: Arkansas State, SU Winner: Ohio State, O/U: U

• Despite winning, Ohio State didn’t cover the 44.5 point spread against Arkansas State.

1. 2022-09-03 vs. Notre Dame: (-16.5) 21-10, ATS Winner: Notre Dame, SU Winner: Ohio State, O/U: U

• A win over Notre Dame, but they failed to cover the 16.5 point spread.

1. 2022-01-01 vs. Utah: (-4) 48-45, ATS Winner: Utah, SU Winner: Ohio State, O/U: O
   • A tight victory over Utah, but they couldn’t cover the 4 point spread.

Implications for Future Matchups

The Ohio State Buckeyes have shown considerable struggle against the spread when facing teams with a 60% or higher win percentage. With a 3-6-1 ATS record in these games and only being an underdog once against the Georgia Bulldogs, the trend indicates some underlying issues in beating expectations.

While their 8-2 SU record shows they are winning the majority of these games, the consistent failures against the spread may be a concern for bettors. Careful consideration of matchups and spread details might be essential for future wagers on Ohio State games against high-performing teams. Their record against the spread suggests they may struggle to beat expectations, even in games they ultimately win.