Point Spread Preview: 111th Grey Cup – Toronto Argonauts (49.5) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-10.0)

Date: Sunday, November 17, 2024
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Location: BC Place, Vancouver, BC
Point Spread: Winnipeg -10.0 | Toronto +10.0
Total: 49.5

Raymond Report Forecast

Projected Score:

• Winnipeg Blue Bombers: 29
• Toronto Argonauts: 20.36

Over/Under Projection: 49.36 Total Points
Market Spread Value (MSV):

• Winnipeg: -3.4
• Toronto: -2.85

C.O.W. (Chances of Winning):

• Winnipeg: 77.14%
• Toronto: 21.92%

C.O.C. (Chances of Covering):

• Winnipeg: 79%
• Toronto: 42%

C.O.G.O. (Chances Game Goes Over):

• 35%, indicating a greater likelihood of the game going under the total of 49.5.

Team Trends & Situational Insights

Toronto Argonauts (+10.0)

• ATS Record: 10-10 this season, with notable success as road underdogs (6-4 ATS).
• Last Game: 30-28 win over the Montreal Alouettes, covering as slight underdogs.
• Momentum: Toronto has won four of their last five games straight up and ATS.
• Key Trend: When playing as road underdogs after beating Montreal, the Argos are 10-2 ATS in their next game over the past decade.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-10.0)

• ATS Record: 8-11 this season, with struggles at home (4-6 ATS).
• Last Game: 38-22 loss to Saskatchewan as home favorites.
• Bounce-Back Spot: Winnipeg is 10-2 straight up and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games following three consecutive ATS losses.
• Key Trend: Winnipeg thrives as home favorites in November games, posting a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS record since 2020.

Key Matchups

Toronto’s Backup QB Nick Arbuckle vs. Winnipeg’s Defense

With starting QB Chad Kelly sidelined due to injury, Nick Arbuckle must navigate Winnipeg’s vaunted pass rush led by Willie Jefferson. Arbuckle’s ability to protect the ball and keep Toronto competitive will determine if the Argos can cover the spread.

Winnipeg’s Run Game vs. Toronto’s Front Seven

Brady Oliveira will look to exploit Toronto’s defense, which has allowed an average of 125 rushing yards per game in their last three outings. A dominant ground game from Winnipeg could grind down Toronto and help the Bombers cover the 10-point spread.

Over/Under Trends

• Toronto: The Argos are 14-6 to the Over this season, fueled by a high-scoring offense and vulnerable defense.
• Winnipeg: The Bombers are 5-14 to the Under, often relying on defensive control and clock management.
• Combined C.O.G.O.: 35%, favoring a play on the Under 49.5, especially with Toronto missing their starting quarterback.

Betting Recommendations

1. Spread Play:
   While Winnipeg is favored by 10 points, Toronto’s recent ATS performance as underdogs and the history of covering after beating Montreal make them an intriguing option at +10.0.
   Both teams’ trends and the Raymond Report’s C.O.G.O. suggest the Under 49.5 is the stronger play, especially with Toronto likely to struggle offensively without Chad Kelly.
2. Moneyline Value:
   Toronto’s +390 moneyline is tempting for value bettors and they have a great history in the big game, give the Argos on the Money line.

Prediction

Winnipeg’s balanced attack and dominant defense will likely control the game, but Toronto’s resilience and situational trends could keep the margin within 10 points.

Final Score Computer Prediction: Winnipeg 27, Toronto 19
Best Bet: Under 49.5