Raymond Report Game Preview: Red Sox at Blue Jays (Game 3)
Matchup: Boston Red Sox (87-71) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (90-68)
Pitching Duel: Brayan Bello (RHP, BOS, 11-8, 3.34 ERA) vs. Louis Varland (RHP, TOR, 4-3, 3.10 ERA, spot/bullpen start)
First Pitch: 7:07 PM ET – Rogers Centre
Line: TOR -132 | BOS +108 | O/U 8
🔎 Raymond Report Breakdown
🔥 Current Form
Boston: 4-1 last five games, averaging 6.2 runs per game. Bello has been consistent — 7-3 over his last 10 starts with a 3.10 RA average.
Toronto: Slumping hard, 1-6 in their last seven, scoring just 1.86 runs per game. The Jays’ bats are ice cold, and the bullpen has been stretched thin.
⚾ Pitching Matchup
Brayan Bello (BOS): True rotation anchor, 11-8 record with a 3.34 ERA. Keeps the ball on the ground and has been Boston’s best road option down the stretch.
Louis Varland (TOR): Normally a reliever, making a spot start. While his ERA looks sharp (3.10), he’s not stretched out, so expect a shorter outing with heavy bullpen usage. That could be dangerous given Toronto’s bullpen struggles.
📈 Value Index & Edges
Forecast: Toronto 4.22 – Boston 3.86
C.O.W. (Chance of Winning): TOR 56.5% vs. BOS 42.2%
SOS (Strength of Schedule): Jays 61.2% vs. Red Sox 44.9%
MVI: BOS (Bullish) vs. TOR (Bearish)
Boston is playing with confidence, while Toronto is trying to stop the bleeding with a patchwork pitching plan.
📌 Situational Angles
Boston: 18-7 SU vs. AL East opponents this season; 9-3 SU after winning Game 2 of a series.
Toronto: 19-8 SU after a loss, but bullpen fatigue is a red flag.
Totals: Toronto divisional games have leaned Over (15-6-1 O/U).
🎯 Raymond Report Lean
Side:Boston +108 — Bello’s stability and Boston’s bats give them the sharper value.
Total: Lean Over 8 — Varland’s short leash means bullpen-heavy night, which often drives late scoring.
📝 Final Word
The Red Sox are trending up while the Jays are piecing it together. Bello is the proven starter, Varland is a bullpen patch — advantage Boston. If Toronto’s bats don’t wake up early, this series could swing 2-1 Red Sox tonight.
👉 For more 80% Club stats, system trends, and premium picks, grab your Raymond Report membership at ATSStats.com.
Ron Raymond
Ron Raymond is a well-known sports handicapper who runs ATS Stats and the Raymond REPORT. He has over 21 years of experience in the industry and provides expert analysis and predictions for various sports, including football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.