RAYMOND REPORT LITE (NHL): Pittsburgh Penguins (+1.5, +120) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-1.5, -141) Preview

Date: Monday, December 1, 2025 | Time: 7:00 PM EST | Total: 6

Key Lines and Forecast

Metropolitan Momentum Clash

The “Battle of Pennsylvania” is always highly anticipated, and this early December matchup provides a sharp contrast in recent form. The Philadelphia Flyers (14-10 SU) are riding a significant wave of momentum, entering tonight’s game on a 3-game straight-up (SU) win streak and a matching 3-game Against The Spread (ATS) win streak, coupled with 3 straight Overs. Their last game was a convincing 5-3 victory over the Devils. The Flyers are establishing themselves as a defensively strong team (5th in the league in goals allowed, according to external data) that can capitalize on their offensive opportunities, especially with key players like Trevor Zegras driving the offense.

Conversely, the Pittsburgh Penguins (12-12 SU) stumble into Philadelphia after a jarring 7-2 loss to the Maple Leafs. They have dropped 6 of their last 10 games (4-6 SU, 6-4-0 ATS). While Pittsburgh’s season ATS record is solid at 17-7-0, their last outing was a major setback, potentially signaling vulnerability in net and on the defensive end.

ATS Trends & Situational Analysis

The provided data points to several critical trends for this rivalry game:

The Flyers Edge: Recent Form and Home Dominance

The Flyers are proving to be a highly profitable team when playing at home in this specific divisional spot:

• Flyers Trend: The Flyers are 11-2 SU when played as a Home Favorite After a Division Game in the last 3 years. This suggests they successfully rebound and maintain focus when coming off a divisional rival game, particularly as the favored team at home.
• Momentum: The Flyers are currently on a 3 SU Win and 3 ATS Win streak.
• Home Favorite Performance: The Flyers have been excellent as a Home Favorite this season, boasting a 6 Win – 1 Lost record in that specific situation, outscoring opponents $3.14$ to $1.86$.

The Penguins Counter: Road Underdog Value

Despite the blowout loss, the Penguins have been a strong team for bettors when listed as the road dog:

• Penguins Trend: The Penguins are an exceptional 9-1-0 ATS when played as an Away Underdog during the current season. This trend provides immediate value for Pittsburgh, despite their recent defeat.
• Days Rest: Both teams are coming off 1 day of rest, neutralizing that variable. The Penguins are 1-3 SU in their last 4 road games, but their ability to cover the spread remains historically strong.

The Over/Under Angle (Total: 6)

The total is set at 6, a relatively common number for NHL games. The recent performance of both teams suggests a lean toward the Over, which is supported by some key stats:

• Recent Over Streaks: Both teams are on an Over streak (Flyers: 3 Over, Penguins: 2 Over).
• Flyers O/U: $5-4-1$ in their Last 10 games.
• Penguins O/U: $3-7-0$ in their Last 10 games. The Penguins hitting two straight Overs suggests the 7-2 loss to Toronto skewed this line, especially since the Penguins previously were trending Under.
• Forecast: The generated forecast total is $5.46$, slightly favoring the Under 6.

Raymond Report Pick

While the Flyers are riding superior momentum and have a strong situational trend as a home favorite after a divisional game, the Penguins’ phenomenal 9-1-0 ATS record as a Road Underdog is too compelling to ignore, especially when being spotted $+1.5$ goals. Furthermore, the Flyers’ Moneyline of $-141$ has high implied probability, suggesting a close game is expected by the market.

ATS Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 (-220)

The recent 7-2 loss for Pittsburgh, while painful, may lead to increased focus and a tighter game from veteran leadership. Given the history of the rivalry, expecting a highly competitive, one-goal difference game is rational, making the $+1.5$ puck line the preferred value play.

Disclaimer: The Raymond Report Lite (NHL) is for informational and analysis purposes only. Please always gamble responsibly.