Here’s your ATS STATS MLB Round Up for Friday, September 5, 2025.
The Cubs are heavy chalk at Wrigley, despite dropping their last game to Atlanta. Javier Assad looks to bounce back against Jake Irvin. Nationals are just 55–83 but have quietly won three straight. Market suggests runs (Total 12.29), but both teams bring recent “Under” form.
Lean: Cubs win, but line is inflated. Over is sneaky with Wrigley wind potential.
The South Siders come in off a slugfest win (11–8 over the Twins), but Shane Smith is a fade spot. Detroit’s Jack Flaherty is the steadier arm, though the Tigers have dropped 7 of their last 10.
Lean: Tigers, but beware the number. Total could creep Over.
Milwaukee cooled off after a loss to Philly, but Priester isn’t a strong fade at home. Pirates have won three in a row and 7 of 10. Streak meets class here.
Lean: Pirates live dog, especially if bats stay hot.
Mets have been streaky, now leaning on Peterson. Reds counter with Abbott after coughing up 13 runs vs. Toronto. Both clubs trending to Overs lately.
Lean: Over 9 is attractive. Small lean Mets.
The Dodgers are slumping (3 straight losses), Glasnow on the bump to reset. Orioles’ Dean Kremer has been serviceable, and O’s have quietly won three straight.
Lean: Orioles value dog at Camden Yards.
Blue Jays bats exploded for 13 runs last game vs Reds, but Kevin Gausman meets Cam Schlittler in a Bronx brawl. Yankees are hot (8–2 last 10). Jays Overs are cashing (9–1 streak).
Lean: Yankees + Over 9 feels right.
Phillies with Sanchez vs. Marlins’ Bellozo. Miami has lost three straight and 6 of 10. Phillies are strong chalk, but the total (8) looks tight.
Lean: Phillies win, but value is in Over.
Mariners sliding, Braves snapped Cubs few nights ago. Logan Gilbert vs. Chris Sale sets up as a sneaky duel. Braves bats have been quiet; M’s Overs hitting.
Lean: Braves, but Total 7.5 could push Over.
Rays are red hot — 7 straight wins. Guardians’ Gavin Williams struggles against Seymour’s sharp form.
Lean: Rays until they cool off.
Twins slumping, Royals grinding out wins. Wacha gives KC an edge, while Twins’ Lopez has been hittable.
Lean: Royals -137. Total could stay Under.
Astros dropped one to the Yanks, now rely on Hunter Brown. Rangers counter with Merrill Kelly. Both clubs trading wins/losses.
Lean: Astros hold edge. Under looks playable.
Two hot teams: Giants winners of 9 of 10, Cards winners of 6 of 8. Toss-up spot with both starters shaky.
Lean: Over 8. Giants + money is live.
Padres laying big lumber at Coors. Pivetta vs. Freeland is a mismatch, but Rockies occasionally pop at home.
Lean: Padres win, but Rockies +1.5 could cover. Over always in play at Coors.
Two bottom feeders. Angels’ Soriano offers more stability than Barnett. Both trending to Unders recently.
Lean: Angels, but better to pass this one.
Red Sox cooled vs. Guardians, but Payton Tolle gives them the edge over Eduardo Rodriguez. D-Backs scrappy, but bullpen remains shaky.
Lean: Red Sox small road chalk.
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