Raymond Report MLB Round Up – Thursday, September 11, 2025
Houston Astros' Michael Brantley (23) celebrates with Abraham Toro (31) and Dustin Garneau (13) after all three scored on Brantley's home run against the Texas Rangers during the seventh inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2020, in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
Welcome back to the Raymond Report MLB Round Up, where we break down today’s matchups using market value, streaks, and rest edges that matter most to bettors. With several teams grinding through tight September schedules, bullpen management and lineup depth play a bigger role than ever.Today’s card features early action in Baltimore, daytime baseball in Chicago and Toronto, and plenty of prime-time divisional tilts. From the red-hot Mariners to the free-falling Pirates and Rockies, we’ll pinpoint who’s trending bullish, who’s flashing red flags, and where totals bettors should keep their eyes.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles
Line: Orioles -151 | Total 8.5
Pitching: Oviedo (PIT) vs. Povich (BAL)
Notes: The Pirates limp in on a 5-game skid, while Baltimore has taken two straight with a hot 8-2 L10 run. Both clubs are on no rest. Pirates’ COW (48%) says “coin flip,” but Orioles’ form and bullpen edge lean Baltimore.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox
Line: Rays -144 | Total 8
Pitching: Seymour (TB) vs. Smith (CWS)
Notes: Rays have been steady, but the Sox are 8-2 L10 and just upset Tampa last night. Rays are the better side long-term, but White Sox are a live dog with value momentum.
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Line: Jays -158 | Total 8.5
Pitching: Javier (HOU) vs. Gausman (TOR)
Notes: Both teams come in off a split, but Toronto has dropped 5 of 10 and keeps hitting unders. Astros are 4-6 L10 and just 39% COW. Market says Jays, but both trending Under.
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
Line: Marlins -123 | Total 8
Pitching: Lord (WAS) vs. Weathers (MIA)
Notes: Nats are surging 7-3 L10, but the Fish own the head-to-head and bring better arms. Both teams are in heavy Over form (7 of L10), yet COGO leans Under (24%). Could be a totals trap spot.
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Line: Yankees -167 | Total 9.5
Pitching: Gipson-Long (DET) vs. Schlittler (NYY)
Notes: Tigers hung 11 runs on New York last night. Yankees have now dropped two straight and are playing average ball (5-5 L10). Tigers value creeping in, but Yanks’ home edge is real.
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Line: Guardians -144 | Total 8
Pitching: Kolek (KC) vs. Williams (CLE)
Notes: Royals are 2-8 to the Under last 10, and Guardians sit in a bullish 6-4 L10 run. Both on zero rest, so bullpen usage matters. Cleveland in better form, but totals trend screams Under.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Line: Phillies -137 | Total 8.5
Pitching: Peterson (NYM) vs. Luzardo (PHI)
Notes: Mets are free-falling (5 straight losses), while the Phillies just crushed them 11-3 and are 7-3 L10. Market and metrics both ride Philly here.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Line: Mariners -176 | Total 8
Pitching: Soriano (LAA) vs. Miller (SEA)
Notes: Angels are treading water, but Seattle is red-hot with 5 straight wins. Both teams are on no rest, but Mariners have the bullpen and form edge.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Line: Padres -244 | Total 8.5
Pitching: Brown (COL) vs. Vasquez (SD)
Notes: Rockies are now 40-105, losers of 5 straight. Padres aren’t much better lately (3-7 L10), but with Randy Vasquez on the bump and Coors relief avoided, San Diego’s the side.
ATS STATS Quick Hits
Bullish Teams Today: Orioles, Guardians, Mariners, Phillies.
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Ron Raymond
Ron Raymond is a well-known sports handicapper who runs ATS Stats and the Raymond REPORT. He has over 21 years of experience in the industry and provides expert analysis and predictions for various sports, including football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.