Eight games on the board, and the market’s overreacting in a few spots like it always does. Let’s run it through the Raymond Report lens: C.O.W, cycles, streaks, and forecast scores.
Brooklyn is deep in C-Bearish territory: 1–10 SU, 3–6–1 ATS last 10, and facing a step down in class spot for Orlando, who just smacked the Knicks and is B-Bullish with 2 straight SU/ATS wins. Nets’ SOS has been heavy (65% last 7), but this is still a team stuck in quicksand. Magic are mid-pack (6–6 SU) but trending the right way at home.
Forecast: Orlando 116.5 – Brooklyn 102.2
Both teams come in off losses, but they’re not in the same emotional bucket. Miami’s on a 3-game Over streak and 8–4 O/U, with their defense leaking just enough to make life hard at MSG. Knicks are A-Bullish, 7–4 SU and 7–3 O/U last 10, and still haven’t been truly priced like a top-end home side because of a soft recent SOS. Expect a playoff-style tempo with late-game shot-making deciding it.
Forecast: New York 120.1 – Miami 116.8
Sixers are quietly 7–4 SU, on a 3-game ATS win streak, and coming off a grind-it-out win vs Boston. But Detroit is on an absolute heater: 8 straight wins, 9–1 SU and 8–2 ATS in their last 10, firmly A-Bullish with a cupcake SOS (20% range) that the market knows about—but still might be discounting. Until this Pistons cycle cools, they’re the classic “don’t overthink it” Raymond Report bull run team.
Forecast: Detroit 119.1 – Philadelphia 113.4
Portland is 6–5 SU but their defense is optional and the totals say it all: 8–3 to the Over, 7–3 O/U last 10. Houston is 7–3 SU, 7–3 ATS, and on an 8–2 O/U run with four straight Overs – offense humming, schedule soft, and confidence high. Two teams in similar Over cycles, but Rockets’ efficiency edge and A-Bullish tag give them the clearer path.
Forecast: Houston 123.4 – Portland 116.7
Charlotte just beat these Bucks 111–100, but don’t crown them yet. They’re still 4–7 SU, 4–6 ATS last 10, and sitting C-Bearish overall. Milwaukee has dropped three straight ATS and is 5–6–1 O/U, but this is the classic revenge-spot blueprint: better team, at home, off a loss to the same opponent. Market tax is there, but the forecast still gives Milwaukee a solid scoring edge.
Forecast: Milwaukee 127.6 – Charlotte 120.0
Sacramento is in full-on C-Bearish freefall: four straight losses, 2–8 SU in their last 10, and 8–3–1 to the Over. Defense has packed its bags. Minnesota is A-Bullish, 7–4 SU and 7–3 O/U, and finally figuring out how to weaponize their size and tempo. Kings’ tough SOS explains some of the pain, but this is still a dangerous matchup against a confident Wolves squad at home.
Forecast: Minnesota 123.5 – Sacramento 111.5
The Lakers took a punch from OKC last game but remain 8–4 SU, 7–3 ATS, and 9–3 O/U – that’s A-Bullish with a strong offensive identity. New Orleans is 2–9 SU, 3–7 ATS, and locked in C-Bearish misery despite a respectable SOS. Pelicans can score in spurts, but they’re not stringing together enough stops to close a 48-minute gap vs this version of L.A.
Forecast: Los Angeles 115.6 – New Orleans 110.1
This is a “who blinks first” matchup between two C-Bearish profiles. Clippers have lost six straight, 2–8 ATS last 10, with a brutal SOS (71% last 7). Dallas isn’t much better at 3–9 SU, but they’re 6–4 ATS lately and showing more fight against the number. The computer still edges toward the Clippers’ talent breaking through, but this is not the kind of form spot where you lay wood just “because of the names.”
Forecast: LA Clippers 113.3 – Dallas 107.1
Rematch spot. Warriors took the last one 125–120, but both teams come in at 7–3 O/U in their last 10 (GS 8–5 O/U overall, Spurs 7–4 O/U). San Antonio is 8–3 SU, 7–3 ATS, sitting in that comfortable A-Neutral/Bullish pocket where the market still hasn’t fully caught up. Golden State is exactly .500 in every direction – 7–6 SU, 5–5 ATS, 5–5 O/U L10 – the definition of “coin flip.” Computer keeps a narrow scoring edge on the home side.
Forecast: San Antonio 117.2 – Golden State 115.4
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