Reading the League Through Cycles: Season • Last 14 • Last 7
One of the biggest mistakes fans (and bettors) make is treating an NBA team like a fixed object. Teams aren’t statues — they’re stocks, and stocks move in cycles. That’s exactly why the Raymond Report Strength of Schedule Power Rating (PR) doesn’t live in just one time frame.
Instead, it looks at three cycles:
- Season-long (who you really are)
- Last 14 games (where the trend is forming)
- Last 7 games (what’s happening right now)
Put those together and you get a much clearer picture of where a team truly sits in the market.
Let’s break it down.
🟢 Tier 1 – True Market Leaders (Aligned Across Cycles)
These teams score strong season PRs and remain stable in the L14 and L7 windows. That’s what real power looks like.
Oklahoma City
- Season PR: 0.63
- L14 PR: 0.56
- L7 PR: 0.56
No smoke, no mirrors. OKC’s dominance isn’t schedule-padded or short-term noise. They’re winning across cycles, which is exactly what elite teams do.
Boston
- Season PR: 0.57
- L14 PR: 0.61
- L7 PR: 0.60
Boston isn’t just winning — they’re accelerating. Strong recent SOS with elite win rates tells us this run is legit, not luck.
Detroit
- Season PR: 0.61
- L14 PR: 0.60
- L7 PR: 0.53
Detroit’s slight L7 dip doesn’t erase the big picture. This is still a top-tier team whose floor remains high.
👉 Investor takeaway: These are blue-chip stocks. Not cheap — but reliable.
🟡 Tier 2 – Trending Up (Momentum Stocks)
These teams may not dominate the full season numbers, but their recent cycles are bullish.
LA Clippers
- Season PR: 0.45
- L14 PR: 0.54
- L7 PR: 0.70
That’s not a typo. The Clippers are one of the hottest teams right now, crushing quality opponents. The market is still catching up.
Portland
- Season PR: 0.49
- L7 PR: 0.60
Season numbers say “meh.” Recent numbers say “buy the dip.”
Toronto
- Season PR: 0.53
- L7 PR: 0.60
Balanced, efficient, and quietly strong. Toronto is the kind of team casual fans underrate — which is exactly where value lives.
👉 Investor takeaway: Momentum matters. These teams are climbing faster than perception.
🔴 Tier 3 – Fading or Stalled (Warning Signs)
Some teams look okay on the surface but are slipping underneath.
Atlanta
- Season PR: 0.49
- L14 PR: 0.42
- L7 PR: 0.44
This is what a down cycle looks like. The longer it lasts, the harder it is to reverse.
Dallas
- Season PR: 0.43
- L7 PR: 0.36
Recent performance + lighter SOS = red flags.
New Orleans / Sacramento / Indiana
Low season PRs and zero momentum. These teams aren’t unlucky — they’re just bad right now.
👉 Investor takeaway: Falling knives cut bankrolls. Don’t catch them.
⚖️ The Big Lesson: Power Is Temporal
A team can be:
- Strong long-term, weak short-term
- Weak long-term, surging short-term
- Or perfectly aligned (the dream scenario)
That’s why one-number rankings fail.
The Raymond Report Power Rating works because it respects cycles, context, and schedule strength — not narratives or highlight reels.
Fans get clarity.
Investors get an edge.
And if you’re still betting teams based on “they looked good last night”… well, Wall Street thanks you for the donation.
📊 Full Power Rating tools and daily market context available at ATSStats.com — where teams are treated like assets, not mascots.
