Welcome back to another data-driven dive into NFL Week 11, powered by the 80% Club trends database inside the ATS STATS Raymond Report. The deeper we get into November, the more trends matter—cycles tighten, identity solidifies, and the market gets sharp. This week the board is loaded with historical edge angles that align with key matchups.
Below are the strongest systems tied directly to this week’s games, structured for smart bettors ready to attack the board—not chase losses.
🔥 Featured Matchup Trends
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
(Seahawks @ Rams | Rams -3.5 | Total 48.5)
- Rams vs Seattle Head-to-Head System Trend:
Los Angeles is 12-3 ATS when playing Seattle (home or away). SU they’re 10-5, suggesting matchup dominance. - Totals note: 6-9 O/U historically suggests caution on the Over.
🎯 Market read: Rams trend strongly ATS vs Seattle; historical matchup advantage strongly favors LA.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
(49ers -2.5 @ Cardinals | Total 48.5)
- SF Road Favorite Totals Trend (47.5–51): 13-2-1 ATS, 15-3-2 SU
- SF Road Favorite in November: 17-8 ATS, 21-4 SU
- SF Road Favorite off ATS loss: 11-4 ATS, 12-2-1 SU
🎯 Market read: This is a monster cluster trend backing San Francisco. Bounce-back cycle + matchup spot equals strong support for the 49ers.
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders
(Commanders @ Dolphins -2.5 | Total 48)
- Miami Home Favorite in November: 21-12-2 ATS, 29-6 SU
- Random System Trend: Miami 9-2-1 ATS at home during Weeks 8–12 before a non-conference game.
🎯 Market read: Dolphins historically elite in November at home, especially outside AFC competition.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
(Bengals @ Steelers -5.5 | Total 49)
- Pittsburgh Home Favorite in November: 9-5-1 ATS, 12-2-1 SU, 12-3 O/U
- PIT vs 31–40% opponent in November: 8-2-1 ATS, 10-1 SU
- Smart Trend: When Pittsburgh is home favorite with 2-3 record last 5: 28-17-1 ATS, 38-8 SU
🎯 Market read: Steelers are a November home monster, and situational metrics heavily favor them.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
(Chiefs -3.5 @ Broncos | Total 45)
- KC vs AFC West Fav: Only 7-13 ATS, but 17-3 SU
- DEN Home after division game off 0-3-pt win: 12-0 SU, 9-3 O/U
- DEN Home vs division opp off 0-3-pt win: 10-2 SU
🎯 Market read: Classic SU/ATS split matchup. Chiefs win historically, but Denver hangs inside the number more often than not.
Other Significant System Edges
| Game | Trend | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina @ Atlanta (111/112 — ATL -3.5) | CAR Road Dog Wk 8-12 off home loss: 11-2 O/U | Total angle, Over strong |
| Green Bay @ NY Giants (115/116 — GB -7) | GB -7 to -9.5 favorite after ATS win: 12-2 SU | Strength ranking advantage |
| Tampa Bay @ Buffalo (117/118 — BUF -5.5) | BUF Home fav after division game last 5 yrs: 20-4 SU, 19-5 O/U | Points & Over both supported |
| Dallas @ Las Vegas (129/130 — DAL -3.5) | DAL -3.5-6.5 fav off Under: 10-2 O/U | Over trend spike |
Final Thoughts – Betting Strategy
This slate provides several high-confidence trend clusters, not just isolated angles:
🔐 Strongest Trend Consolidation Spots
- San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (multiple elite historical edges)
- Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
- Buffalo / Tampa Bay Over
- Dallas / Las Vegas Over
- Carolina / Atlanta Over
⚠️ Caution Games
- Chiefs -3.5 at Denver (SU strength vs ATS weakness split)
- Seahawks / Rams total (historically lower scoring)
Access the Full 80% Club
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