Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck plays against the Detroit Red Wings in the second period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, Dec. 12, 2019, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Monday, November 10, 2025
By ATSStats.com – Home of the Raymond Report
Records lie. Schedules don’t. That’s why every Monday, we cut through the hype and evaluate who’s truly elite — and who’s skating on schedule luck. Using Power Ratings (PR) and Strength of Schedule (SOS) metrics, the Raymond Report model ranks performance through a bettor’s lens, not a fan’s bias.
This week’s snapshot? Anaheim and Carolina are catching fire, Calgary keeps burning bankrolls, and San Jose — yes, that San Jose — is quietly trending upward against a brutal slate. Let’s dive in.
Teams delivering both results and context-adjusted credibility.
| Team | Record | SOS% | Power Rating | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anaheim | 11-4 | 53.16 | 0.63 | 7-game heater, balanced scoring, now demanding market respect. |
| Carolina | 11-4 | 52.00 | 0.63 | Consistency meets structure; dependable across all splits. |
| New Jersey | 11-4 | 53.41 | 0.63 | Cup-caliber rhythm, thriving despite facing elite competition. |
| Colorado | 10-6 | 54.07 | 0.58 | Quality wins against hard opponents; offense finally stabilizing. |
| Montreal | 10-5 | 46.47 | 0.57 | Underrated metrics, strong team identity, top-10 value play. |
Sharp Note: Anaheim’s 7-0 streak with a 0.72 short-term PR is unsustainable at that clip, but momentum plus structure equals staying power for now. New Jersey and Carolina are performing exactly as elite teams should — efficient, not lucky.
Solid records and improving efficiency without the soft slates.
| Team | Record | SOS% | PR | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | 8-7 | 53.97 | 0.54 | Back on track; power play heating up. |
| Detroit | 9-7 | 46.95 | 0.52 | Winning on consistency; young legs, sharp execution. |
| Utah | 9-7 | 47.11 | 0.52 | Expansion team behaving like a contender — steady and physical. |
| Winnipeg | 9-6 | 45.62 | 0.53 | Businesslike hockey; depth and discipline travel well. |
| Dallas | 9-7 | 48.25 | 0.52 | Even effort metrics, great balance; quietly profitable at home. |
Sharp Note: These are buy-low before the market adjusts teams. Utah continues to shock oddsmakers — not with flash, but with disciplined defense and netminder consistency.
Capable, but not exceeding expectations. These clubs define betting equilibrium.
| Team | Record | SOS% | PR | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 10-7 | 52.03 | 0.55 | Reliable, but priced fairly. No free value left. |
| Philadelphia | 8-7 | 47.54 | 0.50 | Working hard, middle-tier production. |
| Vegas | 7-7 | 52.29 | 0.51 | Regression risk; must tighten 5-on-5 defense. |
| Ottawa | 8-8 | 47.56 | 0.49 | Competitive, but inconsistent; not yet trustworthy. |
| Toronto | 8-8 | 50.45 | 0.50 | Offense shines one night, disappears the next. |
Sharp Note: These are fair-market teams — you win with timing, not trends. Focus on situational betting (travel, rest, divisional motivation).
Teams with manageable schedules that still can’t convert chances into wins.
| Team | Record | SOS% | PR | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton | 6-10 | 50.06 | 0.44 | Lost confidence, leaky goals-against. Fade until fixed. |
| Los Angeles | 7-9 | 52.49 | 0.48 | Erratic play; flashes of brilliance buried under inconsistency. |
| Buffalo | 5-10 | 53.40 | 0.43 | Energy there, execution missing. |
| Minnesota | 7-10 | 48.90 | 0.45 | Slight signs of life, but talent gap obvious. |
| NY Rangers | 7-9 | 47.25 | 0.46 | Public team, no value — results match inconsistency. |
Sharp Note: Edmonton’s market remains inflated by name power. Until they correct defensive breakdowns, they’re a serial bankroll killer.
Don’t look now — these clubs are sneaking up on the market.
| Team | Record | SOS% | PR | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | 7-9 | 56.25 | 0.50 | Improving vs elite; great dog returns recently. |
| Chicago | 8-8 | 49.88 | 0.50 | Competing above talent level, possible fade spot soon. |
| Florida | 7-8 | 54.78 | 0.51 | Trending neutral; goaltending stabilizing. |
Sharp Note: San Jose’s SOS (56.25) is one of the league’s toughest. The market hasn’t priced that grind properly. Excellent contrarian value when catching big dogs.
Teams offering more excuses than profits.
| Team | Record | SOS% | PR | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary | 4-13 | 48.61 | 0.36 | SOS soft, results brutal. Don’t touch them. |
| Nashville | 5-12 | 51.84 | 0.41 | Too many lapses; zero chemistry. |
| St. Louis | 5-11 | 46.54 | 0.39 | Can’t outscore issues; not bettable. |
| Washington | 7-8 | 47.42 | 0.47 | Aging core, fading consistency. |
Sharp Note: These are stay-away teams unless you’re playing contrarian value on short lines. For most bettors, they’re landmines, not opportunities.
We’re a month into the NHL season, and the SOS/PR matrix is now a truth serum. Anaheim isn’t lucky — they’re executing. Edmonton isn’t cursed — they’re careless. And bettors who still chase names instead of numbers are donating to the sportsbooks.
Stay disciplined. Follow the data.
Get the daily Power Rating charts and ATS consensus tools inside the Raymond Report — exclusively at ATSStats.com.
Where sharp bettors turn data into dollars.
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