Raymond Track Report – Churchill Downs (Friday, Sept 26, 2025)

Churchill Downs rolls into Friday with a 10-race card loaded with maiden claimers, allowance spots, and some sneaky price plays that could pad the bankroll. Below you’ll find our Win/Place/Show picks, Joker value horses, and Exacta/Trifecta boxes — plus a quick betting angle for each race.

Remember: You can get tipsheets for ALL major tracks daily inside the Premium Horse Racing Section at ATSSTATS.com.

🔹 Race 1 — Maiden Claiming ($67,000) — 1 1/16M Dirt — 12:45 PM

• Win: (3) Hayes Goal – T. Gaffalione (48%)
• Place: (4) Western Warrior – J. L. Ortiz
• Show: (2) Horse of the Sea – I. Ortiz Jr.
• Joker: (5) Section – J. Alvarado

💡 Tip: Gaffalione horses have been live all meet in lower-level claimers; Hayes Goal looks ready to graduate with the drop in class.

Plays: Exacta 3/4 • 4/2 • 2/5 | Trifecta 3/4/2 • 5/4/2

🔹 Race 2 — Claiming ($37,000) — 6F Dirt — 1:14 PM

• Win: (3) Shipman – T. Gaffalione
• Place: (1) Beezer – F. Arrieta
• Show: (5) Vertrauen – C. Barbosa
• Joker: (6) String Theory – E. Morales

💡 Tip: Pace should collapse up front — Shipman has the best closing kick on paper.

Plays: Exacta 3/1 • 1/5 • 5/6 | Trifecta 3/1/5 • 6/1/5

🔹 Race 3 — Claiming ($57,000) — 1 1/16M Dirt — 1:43 PM

• Win: (6) Onmywaytosavthday – T. Gaffalione
• Place: (4) Tiz Salty – C. A. Torres
• Show: (5) Wild Acclaim – D. Cannon
• Joker: (3) Mustang Lady – J. R. Leparoux

💡 Tip: Onmywaytosavthday has been knocking at the door; gets a soft field to finally break through.

Plays: Exacta 6/4 • 4/5 • 5/3 | Trifecta 6/4/5 • 3/4/5

🔹 Race 4 — Maiden Claiming ($69,000) — 1M Turf — 2:13 PM

• Win: (3) Message of Hope – T. Gaffalione
• Place: (2) Roc and Ready Jo – J. L. Ortiz
• Show: (5) Ky Do Declare – B. Curtis
• Joker: (1) Maki Monarchy – I. Ortiz Jr.

💡 Tip: Gaffalione’s turf mounts always take money, but don’t overlook Roc and Ready Jo at double-digit odds with Ortiz up.

Plays: Exacta 3/2 • 2/5 • 5/1 | Trifecta 3/2/5 • 1/2/5

🔹 Race 5 — Maiden Claiming ($57,000) — 7F Dirt — 2:45 PM

• Win: (7) Ashes and Diamonds – T. Gaffalione
• Place: (2) It’s All Red – F. Arrieta
• Show: (1) Romanaya – J. L. Ortiz
• Joker: (5) Kissin Cash – L. Saez

💡 Tip: Ashes and Diamonds looks like lone speed — dangerous if left alone on the front end.

Plays: Exacta 7/2 • 2/1 • 1/5 | Trifecta 7/2/1 • 5/2/1

🔹 Race 6 — Maiden Special Weight ($120,000) — 1 1/16M Dirt — 3:18 PM

• Win: (1) Sonhador – T. Gaffalione
• Place: (4) Whitethorn – J. L. Ortiz
• Show: (5) Strong Destiny – I. Ortiz Jr.
• Joker: (2) Delicious Diva – B. J. Hernandez Jr.

💡 Tip: Classy field, but Sonhador’s inside draw and tactical speed give him first run.

Plays: Exacta 1/4 • 4/5 • 5/2 | Trifecta 1/4/5 • 2/4/5

🔹 Race 7 — Maiden Special Weight ($120,000) — 6.5F Dirt — 3:50 PM

• Win: (9) Mister Landry – V. Lebron (30-1 bomb 🚨)
• Place: (10) Show Me the Munny – C. J. Hernandez
• Show: (13) Stradale – J. L. Ortiz
• Joker: (15) Steel Golden – S. Bermudez

💡 Tip: Wide-open affair — Stradale will be bet, but value lies with big-price runners. This race smells like chaos.

Plays: Exacta 9/10 • 10/13 • 13/15 | Trifecta 9/10/13 • 15/10/13

🔹 Race 8 — Claiming ($82,000) — 1M Dirt — 4:22 PM

• Win: (1) Escalation Clause – F. Arrieta
• Place: (3) Nudge – J. L. Ortiz
• Show: (2) Fielding – I. Ortiz Jr.
• Joker: (6) Express Line – C. J. Lanerie

💡 Tip: Escalation Clause looks sharp off the layoff and gets a favorable pace setup.

Plays: Exacta 1/3 • 3/2 • 2/6 | Trifecta 1/3/2 • 6/3/2

🔹 Race 9 — Allowance ($127,000) — 1 1/16M Dirt — 4:54 PM

• Win: (8) Union Mist – T. Gaffalione
• Place: (3) Classy’n Connected – C. A. Torres
• Show: (4) Low Key – J. L. Ortiz
• Joker: (10) Sharp Smile – I. Ortiz Jr.

💡 Tip: Union Mist has been steadily improving and offers sneaky value at 8-1 in a tough allowance field.

Plays: Exacta 8/3 • 3/4 • 4/10 | Trifecta 8/3/4 • 10/3/4

🔹 Race 10 — Starter Allowance ($83,000) — 1 1/16M Dirt — 5:25 PM

• Win: (3) Spying – T. Gaffalione
• Place: (1) Asian Matriarch – F. Arrieta
• Show: (5) Trusty Troutman – J. L. Ortiz
• Joker: (2) Malibu Smart – B. Curtis

💡 Tip: Spying is the class of the field and gets the hot-riding Gaffalione. Short price but legit single.

Plays: Exacta 3/1 • 1/5 • 5/2 | Trifecta 3/1/5 • 2/1/5

🎯 Final Word

Friday’s Churchill Downs card is a blend of chalk and chaos: some standouts (Sonhador in R6, Spying in R10) and some races begging for a bomb (R7). Manage your bankroll — this is a card where spreading on trifectas could pay off big.

👉 Full Raymond Track Report tipsheets for Churchill and ALL major tracks are available now in the Premium Horse Racing Section at ATSSTATS.com.