DATE: Thursday, May 21, 2026
LOCATION: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
SURFACE: Dirt/Turf
TRACK CONDITION: Fast/Firm
REPORT TYPE: Data-Driven Analytics
OVERVIEW: THE RAYMOND REPORT METHODOLOGY
This tipsheet utilizes the Raymond Report proprietary statistical model to identify high-value betting opportunities at Churchill Downs. Every selection is filtered through the Artificial Intelligence Picks League (AIPL) algorithm, cross-referencing jockey win percentages, trainer “In the Money” (ITM) historical data, and current track bias metrics.
Our primary metric is the C.O.W., or Chance of Winning, which calculates the probability of a horse finishing in the top three based on 100 simulated runs of the specific race conditions. This report prioritizes raw data over narrative, providing bettors with a “Wall Street meets Vegas” dashboard for the Twilight Thursday card.
RACE #1: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
POST TIME: 05:00 PM
DISTANCE: 4 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
PURSE: $92,000
| PICK ORDER | M/L ODDS | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | STATISTICAL INDICATOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 15-1 | (2) Belleza Latina | F Arrieta | 35% Win Rate |
| PLACE | 3-1 | (11) Go New York Go | J Loveberry | 32% Win Rate |
| SHOW | 20-1 | (6) Velvet Beretta | E A Roman | 32% Win Rate |
| JOKER | 4-1 | (10) Belden Rue | I Ortiz, Jr. | 29% Win Rate |
SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: 2-year-old sprint. High volatility. Belleza Latina shows elite speed-to-power ratio in morning drills.
TRAINER ITM RANKING: 1/11/10/3
BETTING SENTIMENT: BULLISH (Grade: A-)
EXACTA BOXES: 2/11, 11/6, 6/10
TRIFECTA BOXES: 2/11/6, 10/11/6
RACE #2: STARTER ALLOWANCE
POST TIME: 05:29 PM
DISTANCE: 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
PURSE: $76,000
| PICK ORDER | M/L ODDS | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | STATISTICAL INDICATOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 9-2 | (4) Baytown Butterfly | E Esquivel | 38% Win Rate |
| PLACE | 20-1 | (2) Progeny | R A Vazquez | 31% Win Rate |
| SHOW | 7-2 | (3) Musical Prayer | R Bejarano | 25% Win Rate |
| JOKER | 7-5 | (1) Sassy Princess | T Gaffalione | 24% Win Rate |
SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: Mid-distance sprint. Track bias favoring inside posts 1-4 in previous 10 starts at this distance.
TRAINER ITM RANKING: 4/6/3/5
BETTING SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL (Grade: B+)
EXACTA BOXES: 4/2, 2/3, 3/1
TRIFECTA BOXES: 4/2/3, 1/2/3
RACE #3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
POST TIME: 05:58 PM
DISTANCE: 5 Furlongs (Turf)
PURSE: $120,000
| PICK ORDER | M/L ODDS | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | STATISTICAL INDICATOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 4-1 | (1) Play It Again | J L Ortiz | 32% Win Rate |
| PLACE | 8-1 | (6) Fire Marshal | I Ortiz, Jr. | 29% Win Rate |
| SHOW | 10-1 | (7) Dee Snook | R Bejarano | 25% Win Rate |
| JOKER | 6-1 | (10) Wartime | T Gaffalione | 24% Win Rate |
SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: First turf sprint of the card. J.L. Ortiz historically outperforms C.O.W. projections on the Churchill lawn.
TRAINER ITM RANKING: 5/6/4/1
BETTING SENTIMENT: BULLISH (Grade: A)
EXACTA BOXES: 1/6, 6/7, 7/10
TRIFECTA BOXES: 1/6/7, 10/6/7
RACE #4: STARTER ALLOWANCE
POST TIME: 06:27 PM
DISTANCE: 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
PURSE: $62,000
| PICK ORDER | M/L ODDS | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | STATISTICAL INDICATOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 9-2 | (3) Handsome Herb | F Arrieta | 35% Win Rate |
| PLACE | 5-2 | (8) Keep On Moving | J L Ortiz | 32% Win Rate |
| SHOW | 5-1 | (7) Uncle Evco | I Ortiz, Jr. | 29% Win Rate |
| JOKER | 6-1 | (5) Admiral Hall | T Gaffalione | 24% Win Rate |
SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: The “long sprint.” Arrieta on the (3) horse has dominated this specific distance over the last 24 months.
TRAINER ITM RANKING: 8/7/2/3
BETTING SENTIMENT: BULLISH (Grade: B)
EXACTA BOXES: 3/8, 8/7, 7/5
TRIFECTA BOXES: 3/8/7, 5/8/7
RACE #5: CLAIMING
POST TIME: 06:56 PM
DISTANCE: 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
PURSE: $71,000
| PICK ORDER | M/L ODDS | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | STATISTICAL INDICATOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 8-1 | (2) Gee No Hollander | J L Ortiz | 32% Win Rate |
| PLACE | 9-2 | (11) Tagliatelle | R A Vazquez | 31% Win Rate |
| SHOW | 4-1 | (3) Exploration | I Ortiz, Jr. | 29% Win Rate |
| JOKER | 10-1 | (1) Funny Uncle | R Bejarano | 25% Win Rate |
SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: Competitive claiming field. Ortiz (32%) vs. Vazquez (31%) makes the (2) and (11) a statistical toss-up.
TRAINER ITM RANKING: 2/11/3/6
BETTING SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL (Grade: C+)
EXACTA BOXES: 2/11, 11/3, 3/1
TRIFECTA BOXES: 2/11/3, 1/11/3
RACE #6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
POST TIME: 07:25 PM
DISTANCE: 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
PURSE: $148,000
| PICK ORDER | M/L ODDS | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | STATISTICAL INDICATOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 5-1 | (8) Lambeth | J L Ortiz | 32% Win Rate |
| PLACE | 4-1 | (5) Dresden Row | I Ortiz, Jr. | 29% Win Rate |
| SHOW | 8-1 | (9) Flying Mohawk | T Gaffalione | 24% Win Rate |
| JOKER | 10-1 | (4) Anglophile | J R Velazquez | 20% Win Rate |
SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: Long turf route. Lambeth (5-1) offers significant value against the favorite.
TRAINER ITM RANKING: 1/6/3/4
BETTING SENTIMENT: BULLISH (Grade: A-)
EXACTA BOXES: 8/5, 5/9, 9/4
TRIFECTA BOXES: 8/5/9, 4/5/9
RACE #7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
POST TIME: 07:54 PM
DISTANCE: 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
PURSE: $148,000
| PICK ORDER | M/L ODDS | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | STATISTICAL INDICATOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 6-1 | (2) Extra Anejo | J L Ortiz | 32% Win Rate |
| PLACE | 7-5 | (3) Built | I Ortiz, Jr. | 29% Win Rate |
| SHOW | 6-1 | (8) Dreaminblue | R Bejarano | 25% Win Rate |
| JOKER | 12-1 | (1) Multitask | T Gaffalione | 24% Win Rate |
SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: High-stakes dirt sprint. Ortiz vs. Ortiz battle. Extra Anejo (2) shows superior late-race speed metrics.
TRAINER ITM RANKING: 4/8/1/6
BETTING SENTIMENT: BULLISH (Grade: B+)
EXACTA BOXES: 2/3, 3/8, 8/1
TRIFECTA BOXES: 2/3/8, 1/3/8
RACE #8: MAIDEN CLAIMING
POST TIME: 08:23 PM
DISTANCE: 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
PURSE: $48,000
| PICK ORDER | M/L ODDS | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | STATISTICAL INDICATOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 3-1 | (7) Raging Current | R A Vazquez | 31% Win Rate |
| PLACE | 6-1 | (1) Blasphemous Rumors | J R Leparoux | 25% Win Rate |
| SHOW | 15-1 | (11) Kopiana | R Bejarano | 25% Win Rate |
| JOKER | 6-1 | (9) Let ‘er Sizzle | B Curtis | 21% Win Rate |
SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: Nightcap dirt sprint. Raging Current (7) is the analytical favorite based on recent workout times and trainer consistency.
TRAINER ITM RANKING: 1/3/9/11
BETTING SENTIMENT: BULLISH (Grade: A)
EXACTA BOXES: 7/1, 1/11, 11/9
TRIFECTA BOXES: 7/1/11, 9/1/11
THE AIPL FRANCHISE: OWN YOUR ANALYTICS
The data provided in this Churchill Downs tipsheet is powered by the same engines used in our Artificial Intelligence Picks League (AIPL). For serious bettors, the AIPL represents the next evolution in sports handicapping: a system where users can buy and own their own AI Capper Franchise.
HOW THE FRANCHISE WORKS:
- Manual Mode: The franchise owner utilizes ATS Stats raw data and the Raymond Report to make manual picks, competing against the league.
- Auto Pilot Mode: The AI Capper executes picks autonomously based on high-probability trends and 80%+ success rate patterns.
- Transparency: Every pick is tracked in real-time, providing a transparent ROI and performance history that traditional handicappers lack.
This is a hybrid competition between human intuition and machine precision. By owning an AIPL franchise, you leverage institutional-grade sports betting stats to gain a definitive edge.
TRACK BIAS & STATISTICAL TRENDS
Historical data for May at Churchill Downs indicates a strong preference for horses breaking from the 2-5 holes in 7-furlong dirt sprints. Furthermore, jockeys like J.L. Ortiz and I. Ortiz, Jr. maintain a significantly higher C.O.W. when riding for “Top 5” trainers in the ITM standings.
For further statistical deep-dives, including NBA and MLB trends, visit our MLB Picks section to see how our AI models transition across sports.
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