DATE: Wednesday, June 24, 2026
LOCATION: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
TRACK CONDITION: Fast (Dirt) / Firm (Turf)
MARKET INDEX: NEUTRAL (High field density observed across all 9 races)
RAYMOND TRACK REPORT OVERVIEW
The following data utilizes the proprietary Raymond Track Report methodology to identify high-probability outcomes and value discrepancies at Churchill Downs. Every horse listed is assigned a C.O.W. (Chance of Winning) percentage based on historical performance, jockey efficiency, and trainer strike rates within the current spring/summer meet.
For users of the Artificial Intelligence Picks League (AIPL), these horse racing metrics provide a technical layer of analysis designed for high-signal wagering. Whether you are managing your own AIPL franchise in Manual Mode or reviewing Auto Pilot performance, the data below serves as the clinical standard for today’s card.
RACE #1: CHURCHILL DOWNS | $60,000 CLAIMING
POST TIME: 12:45 PM | DISTANCE: 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)
| SELECTION | # | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | M/L ODDS | C.O.W. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (4) | King of Hollywood | A Bendezu | 8-1 | 48% |
| PLACE | (6) | Quality Chic | K J Asmussen | 4-1 | 32% |
| SHOW | (7) | Great Escape | I Ortiz, Jr. | 7-2 | 30% |
| JOKER | (3) | Excel Calculator | E Esquivel | 5-1 | 27% |
- SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: Coming off 18 days rest. Two-turn route on the main track.
- BULLISH INDICATORS: (4) King of Hollywood holds the highest C.O.W. at 48% with Bendezu in the irons.
- BEST WIN% RECORD: 4/1/2
- BEST ITM TRAINERS: 6/4/9/7
- EXACTA BOX: 4/6, 6/7, 7/3
- TRIFECTA BOX: 4/6/7, 3/6/7
RACE #2: CHURCHILL DOWNS | $67,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
POST TIME: 1:14 PM | DISTANCE: 5 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)
| SELECTION | # | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | M/L ODDS | C.O.W. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (4) | Jack’s Back | K J Asmussen | 9-2 | 32% |
| PLACE | (9) | Joe Joe Dude | I Ortiz, Jr. | 5-2 | 30% |
| SHOW | (2) | Silverback | B J Hernandez, Jr. | 6-1 | 30% |
| JOKER | (7) | Rhinestone Runner | L Saez | 7-2 | 24% |
- SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: Sprint distance. High-speed interior draw for (4).
- BEST WIN% RECORD: 3/4/5/1
- BEST ITM TRAINERS: 4/9/7/2
- EXACTA BOX: 4/9, 9/2, 2/7
- TRIFECTA BOX: 4/9/2, 7/9/2
RACE #3: CHURCHILL DOWNS | $62,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
POST TIME: 1:43 PM | DISTANCE: 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)
| SELECTION | # | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | M/L ODDS | C.O.W. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (6) | Don’t Be Salty | I Ortiz, Jr. | 4-1 | 30% |
| PLACE | (4) | Miss Ellary | T Gaffalione | 5-2 | 31% |
| SHOW | (2) | Rando | C A Torres | 6-1 | 25% |
| JOKER | (7) | Haleakala | J A Torres | 8-1 | 25% |
- SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: Competitive starter allowance. Note Gaffalione (31%) vs. Ortiz (30%) efficiency.
- BEST WIN% RECORD: 5/1
- BEST ITM TRAINERS: 6/4/7/5
- EXACTA BOX: 6/4, 4/2, 2/7
- TRIFECTA BOX: 6/4/2, 7/4/2
RACE #4: CHURCHILL DOWNS | $62,000 CLAIMING
POST TIME: 2:13 PM | DISTANCE: 1 MILE (DIRT)
| SELECTION | # | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | M/L ODDS | C.O.W. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (5) | Bamtwentyklater | S Pauly | 8-1 | 37% |
| PLACE | (7) | From Scratch | K J Asmussen | 3-1 | 32% |
| SHOW | (1) | Ashes and Diamonds | J L Ortiz | 7-2 | 31% |
| JOKER | (8) | Daring Hope | L Saez | 6-1 | 24% |
- SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: (5) Bamtwentyklater presents extreme value at 8-1 with a 37% C.O.W. indicator.
- BEST WIN% RECORD: 1
- BEST ITM TRAINERS: 7/6/8/2
- EXACTA BOX: 5/7, 7/1, 1/8
- TRIFECTA BOX: 5/7/1, 8/7/1
RACE #5: CHURCHILL DOWNS | $83,000 CLAIMING
POST TIME: 2:45 PM | DISTANCE: 7 FURLONGS (DIRT)
| SELECTION | # | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | M/L ODDS | C.O.W. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (7) | Storm the Streets | S Pauly | 15-1 | 37% |
| PLACE | (1) | Perfect Force | K J Asmussen | 10-1 | 32% |
| SHOW | (4) | Banned for Life | I Ortiz, Jr. | 9-5 | 30% |
| JOKER | (5) | Colonel Caliente | T Gaffalione | 8-1 | 31% |
- SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: Significant value alert on (7) Storm the Streets. 15-1 ML with highest C.O.W. in the field.
- BEST WIN% RECORD: 1
- BEST ITM TRAINERS: 1/3/4/8
- EXACTA BOX: 7/1, 1/4, 4/5
- TRIFECTA BOX: 7/1/4, 5/1/4
RACE #6: CHURCHILL DOWNS | $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
POST TIME: 3:18 PM | DISTANCE: 1 MILE (TURF)
| SELECTION | # | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | M/L ODDS | C.O.W. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (4) | Tammy’s Kiss | I Ortiz, Jr. | 10-1 | 30% |
| PLACE | (8) | Munnings Talks | T Gaffalione | 3-1 | 31% |
| SHOW | (9) | Hypnotica | J L Ortiz | 6-1 | 31% |
| JOKER | (2) | Patron Silver | E Esquivel | 20-1 | 27% |
- SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: Inner turf course. Tactical speed is prioritized.
- BEST WIN% RECORD: 11/15/1
- BEST ITM TRAINERS: 9/6/7/4
- EXACTA BOX: 4/8, 8/9, 9/2
- TRIFECTA BOX: 4/8/9, 2/8/9
RACE #7: CHURCHILL DOWNS | $83,000 CLAIMING
POST TIME: 3:50 PM | DISTANCE: 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)
| SELECTION | # | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | M/L ODDS | C.O.W. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (1) | Call Me Christine | A Bendezu | 12-1 | 48% |
| PLACE | (8) | Turkish Pistachio | S Pauly | 10-1 | 37% |
| SHOW | (2) | Wild Acclaim | K J Asmussen | 15-1 | 32% |
| JOKER | (5) | Modern Sound | I Ortiz, Jr. | 9-5 | 30% |
- SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: High volatility race. 12-1 top pick holds a 48% C.O.W. rating.
- BEST WIN% RECORD: 3/1
- BEST ITM TRAINERS: 2/1/9/8
- EXACTA BOX: 1/8, 8/2, 2/5
- TRIFECTA BOX: 1/8/2, 5/8/2
RACE #8: CHURCHILL DOWNS | $127,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
POST TIME: 4:22 PM | DISTANCE: 6 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)
| SELECTION | # | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | M/L ODDS | C.O.W. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (7) | Rileytole | K J Asmussen | 8-1 | 32% |
| PLACE | (3) | Highgrove | I Ortiz, Jr. | 9-5 | 30% |
| SHOW | (4) | Rose of San Antone | A Achard | 12-1 | 29% |
| JOKER | (1) | Camila Catalina | J R Leparoux | 15-1 | 28% |
- SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: Feature sprint. Asmussen (32%) vs. Ortiz (30%).
- BEST WIN% RECORD: 5/1
- BEST ITM TRAINERS: 3/6/7/5
- EXACTA BOX: 7/3, 3/4, 4/1
- TRIFECTA BOX: 7/3/4, 1/3/4
RACE #9: CHURCHILL DOWNS | $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
POST TIME: 4:55 PM | DISTANCE: 1 MILE (TURF)
| SELECTION | # | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY | M/L ODDS | C.O.W. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (7) | Exact Estimate | I Ortiz, Jr. | 4-1 | 30% |
| PLACE | (1) | Johny’s Rendezvous | J L Ortiz | 12-1 | 31% |
| SHOW | (8) | Tough Little Nut | B J Hernandez, Jr. | 8-1 | 30% |
| JOKER | (10) | Special Justice | J R Leparoux | 20-1 | 28% |
- SITUATIONAL CONTEXT: Finale on the turf course. Ortiz brothers dominate the top selections.
- BEST WIN% RECORD: 2/1
- BEST ITM TRAINERS: 5/8/7/4
- EXACTA BOX: 7/1, 1/8, 8/10
- TRIFECTA BOX: 7/1/8, 10/1/8
DATA SUMMARY: TOP VALUE INDICATORS
The Raymond Track Report identifies the following high-variance opportunities based on Morning Line (ML) odds vs. Chance of Winning (C.O.W.) percentage:
- R7 (1) Call Me Christine: 12-1 ML vs 48% C.O.W. (Strong Value)
- R5 (7) Storm the Streets: 15-1 ML vs 37% C.O.W. (Strong Value)
- R1 (4) King of Hollywood: 8-1 ML vs 48% C.O.W. (Strong Value)
- R4 (5) Bamtwentyklater: 8-1 ML vs 37% C.O.W. (Fair Value)
- R6 (4) Tammy’s Kiss: 10-1 ML vs 30% C.O.W. (Fair Value)
ANALYSIS OF JOCKEY & TRAINER METRICS
Today’s card at Churchill Downs features a high concentration of elite-tier jockeys. I Ortiz, Jr. is featured in 8 of the 9 race selections, maintaining a consistent efficiency rating between 30% and 31%. However, the statistical “Hot Hand” according to the Raymond Track Report is A Bendezu, who enters Race 1 and Race 7 with a 48% winning probability profile based on horse/trainer pairing.
For deeper situational analytics, including the 80% Club and historical track bias for Churchill Downs, visit our Horse Racing Stats portal.
AIPL FRANCHISE OPPORTUNITY
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