Belmont at the Big A • Gulfstream Park • Keeneland
By Ron Raymond — ATSStats.com
Happy Saturday, horseplayers! Three tracks, plenty of action, and enough turf sprints to make your Fitbit think you’re galloping. Here’s a horse racing tipsheet with value angles, simple tickets, and a wink or two so you can enjoy the sweat without overcooking the bankroll. 🍀
🗽 Belmont at the Big A (12:10 ET)
R1 – Starter Alw, 6½f dirt
Inside speed + reliability makes Despo’s Dream (1) the lean, with The Big Calhouna (6) stalking and Grammy Girl (2) grinding late; use Brzina (3) if the pace cooks.
Plays: Exacta 1/6 box • Tri 1/6/2 box
R2 – Starter Alw, 6f dirt
This is the “beat-the-chalk” spot: Tizmarkus (4) can ambush, Fromanothamutha (7) is live at a price, and you still respect Acoustic Ave (3); Goodasiwonswas (1) is backup juice.
Plays: Ex 4/7 box • Tri 4/7/3 box
R3 – Starter Alw, 1 3/16m dirt
Stamina + form says Systemic Change (3) over steady Double Your Money (6) and rail-saver Love Me Not (1); toss in Middle Market (2) for lottery vibes.
Plays: Ex 3/6 box • Tri 3/6/1 box
R4 – Starter Alw, 1m dirt
Price pop alert: Lika Rolling Stone (8) can roll late on a fair track, Mursal (5) gets the trip, and Baby Sassicaia (2) sneaks into the frame; Jackson’s Dixie (6) is chalk insurance.
Plays: Ex 8/5 box • Tri 8/5/2 box
R5 – Starter Alw, 1 1/16m outer turf
Trip race where Seat At the Table (3) gets first run, Tour Jete (2) punches through, and Fantasy Performer (7) keeps tickets alive; Collaboration (1) is the “one more on the saver” type.
Plays: Ex 3/2 box • Tri 3/2/7 box
R6 – Starter Alw, 7f dirt
Chaos sprint—embrace it: bomb Sin Nombre (2) for the upset, Takeschargesmiling (9) is the late flyer, and J D Factor (3) the steady check-getter; Screaming Uncle (1) is your wild-card.
Plays: Ex 2/9 box • Tri 2/9/3 box
R7 – Stakes, 1⅛m turf
Fair pace sets the table for Fast Market (2) to pounce, Ready for Candy (5) is the class, and Decadent (8) can float into the trifecta; Griselda (4) is the guess-right spoiler.
Plays: Ex 2/5 box • Tri 2/5/8 box
R8 – Starter Alw, 6f outer turf
Let It Ride (10) is named after our betting strategy, Frank’s Art (9) is the price draw, and Devil in Disguise (3) fires second off; Vacation Dance (5) is the saver.
Plays: Ex 10/9 box • Tri 10/9/3 box
R9 – Starter Alw, 1m dirt
Fresh look says Twenty Four Mamba (8) strikes, Dr. Kraft (3) sits the pocket, and Eliminate (11) is the late price stab; Whittington Park (5) belongs on deeper tickets.
Plays: Ex 8/3 box • Tri 8/3/11 box
R10 – Starter Alw, 1 1/16m turf
Spread race where Conman (12) steals it if he clears, Highestdistinction (3) has the figure base, and Tut’s Revenge (2) is tough when loose; Fuerteventura (7) is a turf-savvy joker.
Plays: Ex 12/3 box • Tri 12/3/2 box
R11 – Starter Alw, 6f outer turf
Closer’s chance: Strictly Taboo (5) knifes through late, Duboff (1) saves ground, and Blossoming Erudite (10) adds value; Mizoula (4) is the pace puzzle piece.
Plays: Ex 5/1 box • Tri 5/1/10 box
Belmont Daily Double (R10–R11): 12,3 / 5,1
🌴 Gulfstream Park (12:50 ET)
R1 – Mdn Clm, 1m70y AWT
Let price guide you: Whiskey Whim (7) can stretch, She’s Trippin (3) fits the trip, and Zero Remorse (9) is the chalk you lean on; Slewty Princess (10) is the backup.
Plays: Ex 7/3 box • Tri 7/3/9 box
R2 – Clm, 5½f AWT
Miscreant (6) is the upset call, White Claw Woman (7) is logical, and Slender Slipper (2) is the tote board friend; May Mischief (9) stays on savers.
Plays: Ex 6/7 box • Tri 6/7/2 box
R3 – Clm, 1m dirt
Bombs away angle: Honesto (8) over Remerton (5) with safe Pet Mat (9); Lace Up (6) is your chaos key.
Plays: Ex 8/5 box • Tri 8/5/9 box
R4 – Starter Alw, 1m turf
Pace collapse scenario favors Plagne Champagne (4) and Mary Marguerite (9), with Lita (6) grabbing a share; Free to Roam (2) is the hedge.
Plays: Ex 4/9 box • Tri 4/9/6 box
R5 – MSW, 7f dirt
Take the price: Final Payment (6) can improve again, Skellig Michael (7) is obvious, and He’s a Beast (8) rounds out; Make Me Famous (2) is your “don’t leave off entirely.”
Plays: Ex 6/7 box • Tri 6/7/8 box
R6 – Mdn Clm, 5½f AWT
Lil Bit Sideways (9) offers value, Coffee At K J’s (1) has the rail trip, and Fly Commander (8) can tag late; One More Duke (4) on savers.
Plays: Ex 9/1 box • Tri 9/1/8 box
R7 – Alw OC, 7f dirt
Class + setup points to Life Is Precious (4), with Pure Class (1) as the main danger and Practically Dark (5) for depth; Saint Tapit (2) is the “what if” horse.
Plays: Ex 4/1 box • Tri 4/1/5 box
R8 – $200k Stakes, 7f dirt
Price hunting in a wide-open heat: Sister Hustle (7) can spring it, Drama (2) is sneaky, Win Bet Only (11) outruns odds, and Finding Strength (3) belongs on backups.
Plays: Ex 7/2 box • Tri 7/2/11 box
R9 – Alw OC, 1 1/16m turf
Show Off (5) is the trip horse at a number, Crafty Collector (4) floats up the rail, and Rugelach (7) maintains form; Madame Mischief (8) is the chalk saver.
Plays: Ex 5/4 box • Tri 5/4/7 box
R10 – $70k Hcp, 1m dirt
Holiday Pay (6) is the value top pick, Steal Sunshine (4) the class check, and Awesome Train (1) fills exotics; Con Compania (8) is the pace insurance.
Plays: Ex 6/4 box • Tri 6/4/1 box
R11 – $200k Stakes, 7f dirt
Evenly matched sprinters—take the prices: Hawk (10) over Camigol (7) and All to Win (5), with Strategic Risk (1) as the logical safety.
Plays: Ex 10/7 box • Tri 10/7/5 box
R12 – MSW, 5f turf
Turf dash roulette: Rosie Dozie (6) for the win, Timeforpeace (4) right there, and Bella Coco (1) to spike the payout; Silver Juani (10) as the swing.
Plays: Ex 6/4 box • Tri 6/4/1 box
Gulfstream Late Pick 4 (R9–R12): 5,4,7 / 6,4 / 10,7 / 6,4
🐎 Keeneland (1:00 ET)
R1 – Clm, 7f dirt
Great opener for bomb lovers: Midnight Pranks (7) over Mena (2) with safe Magnolia Midnight (5); American Xperiment (9) is the chaos agent.
Plays: Ex 7/2 box • Tri 7/2/5 box
R2 – MSW, 1 1/16m dirt
Foundation types: Spun Legacy (2) has upside, Section (9) keeps improving, and Kingofsomewherehot (12) is the board crasher; Project Ace (10) is a fair saver.
Plays: Ex 2/9 box • Tri 2/9/12 box
R3 – MSW, 6f dirt
Lean against the fave for value: Private Debbie (4) on top, Mya Papaya (10) is live, and Splendid Song (5) is reliable; use Runadhara (9) on deeper spreads.
Plays: Ex 4/10 box • Tri 4/10/5 box
R4 – Alw, 1 1/16m dirt
Golden Gamble (9) gets the right pace, Necessity (4) is the measuring stick, and Lady of Silence (6) plugs the tri; Take Charge Omaha (1) is the rail riddle.
Plays: Ex 9/4 box • Tri 9/4/6 box
R5 – Alw, 5½f turf
Class + quickness: Nobals (10) is the A, Little Ni (9) the B, Wendelssohn (1) keeps your tickets honest; Dhabab (5) is the rolling backup.
Plays: Ex 10/9 box • Tri 10/9/1 box
R6 – $350k Stakes, 7f dirt
Two-horse race feel: Barnes (3) and Captain Cook (5) are the A’s, with Taylor’s Version (2) as the overlay; Rolando (6) is your “if it melts down” add.
Plays: Ex 3/5 box • Tri 3/5/2 box
R7 – MSW, 6f dirt
Spread for a price: Stay in Tune (2) on top, Summer Date (11) is sneaky, Majestic Moon (12) for spice; Hot Gossip (5) is chalk cover.
Plays: Ex 2/11 box • Tri 2/11/12 box
R8 – Alw, 1 1/16m turf
Shape says Green Light (6) trips out, Siege of Boston (7) punches late, and Nineeleventurbo (11) adds value; Degree of Risk (5) is the reliable fourth.
Plays: Ex 6/7 box • Tri 6/7/11 box
R9 – $400k Stakes, 7f dirt
Deep, messy, and fun—so take prices: Maida (7), Taliesin (14), and Kappa Kappa (13) are my upset triangle; Om N Joy (5) is the turbo longshot.
Plays: Ex 7/14 box • Tri 7/14/13 box
R10 – MSW, 1m turf
Finish with a trip horse: Patron Silver (1) has options from the rail, Academic Freedom (14) is live despite the draw, and Backgammon (7) is the steady closer; Angelic Katie (5) for saver tickets.
Plays: Ex 1/14 box • Tri 1/14/7 box
Keeneland Late Pick 4 (R7–R10): 2,11,12,5 / 6,7,11 / 7,14,13 / 1,14,7
💡 Bankroll & Fun Tips (for the everyday player)
- Keep it boxed & breezy: When races look tight, exacta/tri boxes keep you alive if the order flips.
- One “Joker,” not three: Sprinkle exactly one longshot into your exacta/tri—cheap add, max giggles.
- Never chase the photo: If you lost the nose bob, you also won a great story; save the bullets for the next edge.
- Budget like a pro: 1–2% of bankroll per race; increase only when you truly have an opinion, not a feeling.
