Form is crystal clear at the top, noisy in the middle, and unforgiving at the bottom. The edge tonight favors A-tier momentum at fair numbers, B-tier price shopping, and selective C-tier contrarian sprinkles only when the schedule or spot screams value. If a team is Bearish, make them prove it first.
A-Tier: Leaders and leverage
Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Chicago, Philadelphia, LA Lakers, Milwaukee, Portland, Detroit, LA Clippers, Houston, Denver
- Oklahoma City (7-0, 7W, Bullish 100%). This is the league’s metronome. Treat OKC like a blue-chip stock. Entries should be price-disciplined, not automatic.
- San Antonio, Chicago, Philadelphia (all 5-1, Bullish 83%). Three different brands of workable chalk. Respect the tag, do not chase steam.
- LA Lakers (5-2, 3W, Bullish 71%). Playing to profile with a live home premium. Cover risk rises if the number inflates.
- Milwaukee, Portland, Detroit (all 4-2, Neutral). Winning records without a buy signal. These are “number first” plays.
- LA Clippers, Houston, Denver (3-2, Neutral). Light sample, modest edge. Consider moneyline in coin-flip ranges.
Actionable read:
- Core rides at market numbers: Oklahoma City, Philadelphia.
- Price-sensitive adds: San Antonio, Chicago, Lakers.
- Number-only entries: Milwaukee, Portland, Detroit, Clippers, Houston, Denver.
B-Tier: Sorters and shoppers
Golden State, Cleveland, New York, Minnesota, Miami
- Golden State, Cleveland (4-3, Neutral 57%). Veteran profiles that books rarely discount. Hunt short spreads or plus money in live-dog spots.
- New York, Minnesota (3-3, Neutral 50%). Pure coin flips. Play matchup edges and rest angles, not logos.
- Miami (3-3, 2L, Neutral 50%). The two-game skid keeps prices honest. Look for bounce-back at home or versus pace-down opponents.
Actionable read:
- Buy only at a deal: Warriors, Cavs.
- Situational filters required: Knicks, Wolves, Heat.
C-Tier: Mispricing or mirage
Atlanta, Memphis, Boston, Orlando, Charlotte, Toronto, Phoenix, Dallas, Sacramento, Utah, Indiana, Washington, Brooklyn, New Orleans
- Neutral 3-4 cluster (ATL, MEM, BOS, ORL, CHA, TOR, PHX). All 3-4 with Neutral reads. These are not “fade” teams, they are market-true. Bet the number, not the narrative.
- Dallas, Sacramento, Utah (2-4, Neutral). Utah carries a 3-game losing streak. Consider short-term fades unless the market gives you a friendly tag at home.
- Indiana, Washington (1-5, Bearish). Respect the red flag. Only consider at inflated home plus-prices with favorable rest.
- Brooklyn, New Orleans (0-6, Bearish, 6L). No hero ball with your bankroll. Pass until the skid breaks.
Actionable read:
- Speculative dogs only at strong prices: Dallas, Sacramento, Utah.
- Strict pass list for now: Indiana, Washington, Brooklyn, New Orleans.
Streak tape
- Hottest: Oklahoma City 7W; Lakers 3W; Portland 3W; Houston 3W.
- Coldest: Brooklyn 6L; New Orleans 6L; Washington 4L; Utah 3L.
Portfolio template for tonight’s style
- Core pieces: Oklahoma City, Philadelphia at or below fair price.
- Add-ons if the tag cooperates: San Antonio, Chicago, Lakers.
- Value hunts: Warriors or Cavs near even money; Heat as a short home favorite after a skid.
- Sprinkles only, matchup-driven: Dallas or Sacramento as live dogs.
- Hard passes: Brooklyn, New Orleans, Washington, Indiana until the tape turns.
Final word
This board rewards discipline. Ride verified A-tier form when the number is right, shop relentlessly in B-tier, and do not donate to bottom-tier skids. For full Raymond Report dashboards, 80% Club filters, and nightly SBI charts, join us at ATSStats.com. Smart tools beat hot takes, every time.
