The A-tier board is crowded, the B-tier is split between genuine risers and brand-name chop, and the C-tier is where the mispricing lives. The current tape says “ride the heat, fade the hype, and cherry-pick plus-price value.” Quick humor aside, bankroll discipline matters more than ever when half the card sits in Neutral.
A-Tier: Leaders and leverage
Montreal, Winnipeg, New Jersey, Detroit, Utah, Anaheim, Carolina, Pittsburgh
- Heat check: Montreal and Winnipeg both sit 9-3 with 5-2 last-7 and active 3-game win streaks. That is Bullish with 71% confidence for each. The DMVI prints at −156 to −158, which signals the market has already caught up. Translation: strong but rarely discounted. Grade them “Ride or Reduce” depending on price.
- Anaheim: 7-4, 5-2 last-7, 3-game win streak, Bullish 71%, and a +110 DMVI. That positive DMVI is your green light that the market might still be a step slow on the Ducks. This is the A-tier value outlier.
- Utah: 8-4 with a recent 2-game slide, yet still Bullish 71%. DMVI −119 says respect is already priced in. Treat as a hold until the slide stops.
- Carolina: 7-4 but Neutral 42% with a −200 DMVI. That is classic “great team, poor price.” Talent is not a coupon.
- New Jersey, Detroit, Pittsburgh: All A-grade with Neutral confidence and moderate negatives on DMVI. They win enough to anchor parlays, although the number rarely flatters.
Actionable read:
- Buy to reasonable price: Anaheim
- Hold, price sensitive: Montreal, Winnipeg, Utah, Pittsburgh
- Pass or fade expensive tags: Carolina, New Jersey, Detroit
B-Tier: Sorting contenders from pretenders
Columbus, Vegas, Colorado, Tampa Bay, NY Islanders, Washington, Boston, Dallas, Toronto, Philadelphia, Florida
- Momentum buys:
- Tampa Bay: 5-game win streak, Bullish 71%, +124 DMVI. Still dealing at the window.
- NY Islanders: 2-game win streak, Neutral, +155 DMVI. A market lag candidate in pick’em ranges.
- Columbus: Bullish 71%, −110 DMVI. Playing above sticker, but not overpriced yet.
- Caution flags:
- Colorado: 2-5 last-7, Bearish 28% with −160 DMVI. The name on the jersey still costs full freight while current form does not.
- Washington: 4-game losing streak, Bearish 28%, −140 DMVI. Price has not fully broken.
- Chop zone, price-only entries: Boston, Dallas, Toronto, Philadelphia, Florida, Vegas. All at 0.50 win% with Neutral reads and DMVIs orbiting par. These are market-true teams. Bet the number, not the logo.
Actionable read:
- Buy: Tampa Bay, NY Islanders
- Speculative buy: Columbus at fair moneylines
- Fade until form flips: Colorado, Washington
C-Tier: Where the edges hide
Ottawa, Edmonton, Vancouver, NY Rangers, Seattle, Buffalo, Chicago, Nashville, Los Angeles, San Jose, Minnesota, St. Louis, Calgary
- Mispriced with upside:
- San Jose: 4-9 never looks pretty, yet the +208 DMVI is the largest on the board. Recent 4-3 stretch with Neutral 57% suggests you can fish plus-prices in the softer spots. Scale small, choose opponents.
- NY Rangers: 3-game win streak, Neutral 57%, −198 DMVI. The market is already paying attention. You are not sneaking a bargain here.
- Ottawa, Edmonton: Both Neutral 57% with competitive L7 profiles. DMVI sits negative, so treat them as live dogs only when the price sweetens.
- Cold tape, beware the sticker:
- Vancouver: 2-5 last-7, Bearish 28%, +115 DMVI. Value exists, form does not. If you buy, do it at home or in divisional spots you like.
- Minnesota: Bearish 28%, +115 DMVI. Same story, slightly worse baseline.
- St. Louis: 0-7 last-7, Bearish 0% with +152 DMVI. The number will tempt you. The tape should not. Demand a massive price or pass.
- Deep-value long shots:
- Calgary: 3-11 with +174 DMVI. Price is attractive because performance is not. Treat as a scheduling or matchup one-off only.
Actionable read:
- Speculative buy, small stakes: San Jose
- Situational dogs only: Ottawa, Edmonton, Vancouver, Minnesota
- Avoid until a base forms: St. Louis, Calgary
Heat Index: Five hottest or coldest signals
- Hottest win-streaks: Tampa Bay 5W, Montreal 3W, Winnipeg 3W, NY Rangers 3W, Boston 3W.
- Coldest slides: St. Louis 7L, Washington 4L, Utah 2L, Seattle 2L, Dallas 2L.
Pricing Lens via DMVI
- Most overvalued cluster (big negative DMVI): Carolina, New Jersey, Montreal, Winnipeg, Colorado. You can still back them, although you must beat the closing line.
- Most undervalued cluster (big positive DMVI): San Jose, NY Islanders, Calgary, Chicago. Value is not a synonym for “good,” it is a synonym for “mispriced.”
Suggested portfolio for tonight’s board style
- Core rides at sensible numbers: Anaheim, Tampa Bay
- Price-hunts: NY Islanders near even money, Columbus as a short dog or small favorite
- Speculative sprinkle: San Jose if the opponent’s recent form is middling or travel-compromised
- Fades or pass-throughs at public prices: Carolina, Colorado, Washington, St. Louis
Final word
The market is efficient on the shiny A-teams. The edge this week sits in B-tier momentum and selective C-tier mispricing. If you want a sharper card and daily MVI moves, members get the full Raymond Report dashboards, 80% Club filters, and SBI charts at ATSSTATS.com. Join, plug into the tools, and stop guessing.
