Categories: Horse Racing

Saratoga Racing Insights: Top Picks and Analysis Using Our Horse Power Points System

Explanation of the Point System

In this analysis, we’ve employed a Horse Power Points System to evaluate and rank the horses across today’s races at Saratoga. This system considers the following factors:

  1. Odds Points: We convert Morning Line (M/L) odds into points by taking the inverse of the odds, multiplied by 100. This rewards horses with lower odds, indicating higher chances of winning.
  2. Jockey Points: Each horse’s jockey contributes points based on their win percentage. We multiply the jockey’s win percentage by 100 to calculate these points, rewarding horses ridden by more successful jockeys.
  3. Morning Line Odds: The M/L odds are also used directly in the scoring to reflect a horse’s chance of winning as perceived by experts.

The total points for each horse are calculated by summing these factors, giving bettors a clear picture of each horse’s strengths and helping identify the best betting opportunities.

Saratoga Horse Racing Analysis

Race 1 – Stakes

Pick OrderM/LHorse NumberHorse NameJockeyJockey %Odds PointsJockey PointsM/L PointsTotal Points
WIN8-1(5)Tuddenham GreenG Watters4%12.54824.5
PLACE5-1(1)Hold HardB Dalton3%203528
SHOW10-1(6)Walk The WarriorJ Bargary2%1021022
JOKER12-1(8)Hidden PathP Hendriks3%8.3331223.33

Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight

Pick OrderM/LHorse NumberHorse NameJockeyJockey %Odds PointsJockey PointsM/L PointsTotal Points
WIN8-5(8)Will Not Be SwayedF Prat30%62.5301.694.1
PLACE6-1(6)Royal PrincessM Franco28%16.6728650.67
SHOW12-1(1)Bossy DishI Ortiz, Jr.24%8.33241244.33
JOKER4-1(7)Tiz PurpleT Gaffalione24%2524453

Race 3 – Starter Allowance

Pick OrderM/LHorse NumberHorse NameJockeyJockey %Odds PointsJockey PointsM/L PointsTotal Points
WIN8-1(6)Principe d’OroF Prat30%12.530850.5
PLACE6-1(3)DillingerM Franco28%16.6728650.67
SHOW7-2(4)Rider’s SpecialK Carmouche28%28.57283.560.07
JOKER10-1(8)Mr. PapagiorgioI Ortiz, Jr.24%10241044

Race 4 – Allowance

Pick OrderM/LHorse NumberHorse NameJockeyJockey %Odds PointsJockey PointsM/L PointsTotal Points
WIN8-1(2)Victors ValiantF Prat30%12.530850.5
PLACE5-2(9)FromanothamuthaM Franco28%40282.570.5
SHOW6-5(5)Unit EconomicsI Ortiz, Jr.24%62.5241.287.7
JOKER8-5(10)Classic LegacyJ Alvarado24%62.5241.688.1

Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming

Pick OrderM/LHorse NumberHorse NameJockeyJockey %Odds PointsJockey PointsM/L PointsTotal Points
WIN5-1(1)Sunday ShoesF Prat30%2030555
PLACE10-1(4)L Street LadyM Franco28%10281048
SHOW6-1(6)Speedy TravelerJ A Torres26%16.6726648.67
JOKER3-1(7)Hollywood WalkI Ortiz, Jr.24%33.3324360.33

Race 6 – Claiming

Pick OrderM/LHorse NumberHorse NameJockeyJockey %Odds PointsJockey PointsM/L PointsTotal Points
WIN6-1(2)RainingatthebeachF Prat30%16.6730652.67
PLACE4-1(8)Grammy GirlM Franco28%2528457
SHOW5-1(7)Bump in the NightI Ortiz, Jr.24%2024549
JOKER6-1(1)Moonlit WeekendJ L Ortiz24%16.6724646.67

Race 7 – Claiming

Pick OrderM/LHorse NumberHorse NameJockeyJockey %Odds PointsJockey PointsM/L PointsTotal Points
WIN10-1(4)StormquistM Franco28%10281048
PLACE6-1(3)On the LedgeK Carmouche28%16.6728650.67
SHOW3-1(11)NeuschwansteinI Ortiz, Jr.24%33.3324360.33
JOKER8-1(8)UnclecharliesgiftT Gaffalione24%12.524844.5

Race 8 – Stakes

Pick OrderM/LHorse NumberHorse NameJockeyJockey %Odds PointsJockey PointsM/L PointsTotal Points
WIN7-2(3)Smokin’ Hot KittyK Carmouche28%28.57283.560.07
PLACE8-1(5)Bustin BayI Ortiz, Jr.24%

| 12.5 | 24 | 8 | 44.5 |
| SHOW | 7-5 | (2) | Sterling Silver | J Alvarado | 24% | 62.5 | 24 | 1.4 | 87.9 |
| JOKER | 15-1 | (1) | Sunset Louise | J L Ortiz | 24% | 6.67 | 24 | 15 | 45.67 |

Race 9 – Maiden Claiming

Pick OrderM/LHorse NumberHorse NameJockeyJockey %Odds PointsJockey PointsM/L PointsTotal Points
WIN15-1(9)Zen AirM Franco28%6.67281549.67
PLACE1-1(1A)Adventurous SpiritI Ortiz, Jr.24%100241125
SHOW4-1(6)RiverwalkT Gaffalione24%2524453
JOKER1-1(1)Steadfast ResolveJ L Ortiz24%100241125

Top 10 Picks Across All Races

Here are the top 10 picks based on total points from all races at Saratoga today:

  1. (1A) Adventurous Spirit – Race 9: 125 points
  2. (1) Steadfast Resolve – Race 9: 125 points
  3. (8) Will Not Be Swayed – Race 2: 94.1 points
  4. (10) Classic Legacy – Race 4: 88.1 points
  5. (5) Unit Economics – Race 4: 87.7 points
  6. (2) Sterling Silver – Race 8: 87.9 points
  7. (9) Fromanothamutha – Race 4: 70.5 points
  8. (4) Rider’s Special – Race 3: 60.07 points
  9. (3) Smokin’ Hot Kitty – Race 8: 60.07 points
  10. (7) Hollywood Walk – Race 5: 60.33 points

These horses represent the best betting opportunities today at Saratoga, according to the analysis of odds and jockey performance. Good luck with your bets!

Ron Raymond
Ron Raymond is a veteran sports handicapper and founder of ATSstats.com, creator of the Raymond Report sports betting system. Active in the industry since 1996, Ron has nearly three decades of experience analyzing market cycles, performance indicators, and value metrics across the NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, and CFL. Ron’s data-driven approach has helped thousands of bettors think strategically, manage risk, and win with confidence.
Ron Raymond

Ron Raymond is a veteran sports handicapper and founder of ATSstats.com, creator of the Raymond Report sports betting system. Active in the industry since 1996, Ron has nearly three decades of experience analyzing market cycles, performance indicators, and value metrics across the NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, and CFL. Ron’s data-driven approach has helped thousands of bettors think strategically, manage risk, and win with confidence.

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