DATE: Thursday, July 16, 2026
TRACK: Saratoga Springs, NY
SURFACE: Dirt / Turf / Inner Turf / Hurdle
TOTAL PAYOUT: $0.00 (Current)
TICKET STRATEGY: Raymond Track Report Multi-Race Analysis
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW: JOCKEY DOMINANCE
The July 16 card at Saratoga is statistically anchored by J.L. Ortiz. Per the Raymond Report metrics, Ortiz holds the WIN projection in 55.5% of today’s races (5 of 9). His C.O.W. (Chance of Winning) rating is at a session-high across multiple surfaces, specifically peaking in Maiden Special Weight and Claiming events.
RACE #1: SARATOGA STAKES : $75,000
POST TIME: 01:10 PM
DISTANCE: 2 3/8 Miles (Hurdle)
TRACK CONDITION: Firm
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 9-2 | (1) Mr Percy | G Watters (11%) |
| PLACE | 7-2 | (3) Cyber Ninja | J Bargary (9%) |
| SHOW | 8-1 | (2) Morning March | F Procter (8%) |
| JOKER | 6-1 | (7) Lord Flintshire | S Mulqueen (9%) |
- ALTERNATES: (5) Lynches Knock (8-1), (8) Vintage Year (12-1)
- EXACTA: 1/3 BOX, 3/2 BOX, 2/7 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 1/3/2 BOX, 7/3/2 BOX
- HORSES BEST WIN%: 7/1
- TRAINERS BEST ITM%: 8/3/6/5
- SITUATIONAL: Opening hurdle event. Low jockey win percentages across the board suggest high-volatility outcome.
RACE #2: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT : $100,000
POST TIME: 01:48 PM
DISTANCE: 1 Mile (Dirt)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 4-1 | (6) In Front Runner | J L Ortiz (31%) |
| PLACE | 2-1 | (2) Term Premium | F Prat (29%) |
| SHOW | 6-1 | (5) Roadie | I Ortiz, Jr. (24%) |
| JOKER | 8-1 | (3) Bubster | R Santana, Jr. (20%) |
- EXACTA: 6/2 BOX, 2/5 BOX, 5/3 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 6/2/5 BOX, 3/2/5 BOX
- HORSES BEST WIN%: 4/1
- TRAINERS BEST ITM%: 4/2/1/3
RACE #3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING : $45,000
POST TIME: 02:22 PM
DISTANCE: 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 3-1 | (6) Lucky Dude | K Carmouche (26%) |
| PLACE | 20-1 | (2) Smilensaycheese | R Gutierrez (26%) |
| SHOW | 5-1 | (9) Princip | I Ortiz, Jr. (24%) |
| JOKER | 5-2 | (5) Tizmarkus | R Santana, Jr. (20%) |
- EXACTA: 6/2 BOX, 2/9 BOX, 9/5 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 6/2/9 BOX, 5/2/9 BOX
- HORSES BEST WIN%: 4/1
- TRAINERS BEST ITM%: 6/9/7/1
RACE #4: MAIDEN CLAIMING : $75,000
POST TIME: 02:56 PM
DISTANCE: 1 Mile (Inner Turf)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 8-1 | (5) Asked and Answered | J L Ortiz (31%) |
| PLACE | 8-1 | (2) Alghero | F Prat (29%) |
| SHOW | 10-1 | (7) Mount Sopris | K Carmouche (26%) |
| JOKER | 12-1 | (8) Minotaur | L Saez (26%) |
- ALTERNATES: (1) Arabian Power, (9) Franklin Delano
- EXACTA: 5/2 BOX, 2/7 BOX, 7/8 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 5/2/7 BOX, 8/2/7 BOX
- HORSES BEST WIN%: 5/1
- TRAINERS BEST ITM%: 1/6/2/11
RACE #5: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT : $115,000
POST TIME: 03:30 PM
DISTANCE: 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 7-2 | (3) All Star Leigh | J L Ortiz (31%) |
| PLACE | 6-1 | (9) Sitting On a Win | F Prat (29%) |
| SHOW | 8-1 | (12) Mc Cruiser | K Carmouche (26%) |
| JOKER | 12-1 | (8) Champagne in Paris | R Gutierrez (26%) |
- EXACTA: 3/9 BOX, 9/12 BOX, 12/8 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 3/9/12 BOX, 8/9/12 BOX
- SITUATIONAL: 16-horse field. High variance expected. Bullish on (3) All Star Leigh given Ortiz’s 31% track efficiency.
RACE #6: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT : $115,000
POST TIME: 04:04 PM
DISTANCE: 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 3-1 | (6) Pippa Adds | J L Ortiz (31%) |
| PLACE | 6-1 | (1) Morning Menace | F Prat (29%) |
| SHOW | 15-1 | (3) Full of Tact | K Carmouche (26%) |
| JOKER | 5-2 | (4) Ati Girl | I Ortiz, Jr. (24%) |
- EXACTA: 6/1 BOX, 1/3 BOX, 3/4 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 6/1/3 BOX, 4/1/3 BOX
- TRAINERS BEST ITM%: 7/5/1/2
RACE #7: CLAIMING : $55,000
POST TIME: 04:38 PM
DISTANCE: 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Turf)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 9-2 | (8) Sicilian Defense | J L Ortiz (31%) |
| PLACE | 7-2 | (2) English Law | F Prat (29%) |
| SHOW | 2-1 | (13) I’m Worthy | K Carmouche (26%) |
| JOKER | 30-1 | (1) Roscommon | C Elliott (24%) |
- EXACTA: 8/2 BOX, 2/13 BOX, 13/1 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 8/2/13 BOX, 1/2/13 BOX
- SITUATIONAL: Deep 13-horse field. Sicilian Defense fits the technical profile for inner turf routing.
RACE #8: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING : $78,000
POST TIME: 05:12 PM
DISTANCE: 1 Mile (Dirt)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 4-1 | (5) Gethsemane | J L Ortiz (31%) |
| PLACE | 5-2 | (7) Palacios | I Ortiz, Jr. (24%) |
| SHOW | 6-1 | (3) Life Is Gravy | T Gaffalione (23%) |
| JOKER | 7-2 | (6) Max Money | R Santana, Jr. (20%) |
- EXACTA: 5/7 BOX, 7/3 BOX, 3/6 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 5/7/3 BOX, 6/7/3 BOX
- TRAINERS BEST ITM%: 1/7/8/5
RACE #9: MAIDEN CLAIMING : $56,000
POST TIME: 05:46 PM
DISTANCE: 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 3-1 | (6) Roasted Reds | F Prat (29%) |
| PLACE | 6-1 | (7) Zelena | L Saez (26%) |
| SHOW | 50-1 | (4) Tank Girl | C Gonzalez (27%) |
| JOKER | 10-1 | (10) Two Clicks | R Gutierrez (26%) |
- EXACTA: 6/7 BOX, 7/4 BOX, 4/10 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 6/7/4 BOX, 10/7/4 BOX
- SITUATIONAL: Finale with 16-horse capacity. Roasted Reds (3-1) presents the strongest model alignment for closure.
ANALYTICAL SUMMARY
- TOTAL RACES: 9
- TOP JOCKEY PERFORMANCE: J.L. Ortiz (Proj. 5 Wins)
- HURDLE ANALYSIS: High variance opening (R1).
- TURF CAPACITY: Large fields (R5, R7, R9) require expanded Trifecta hedging.
For deeper statistical breakdowns, visit our Horse Racing Tipsheets or review the latest CFL Betting Insights for mid-week action.
For entertainment and informational purposes only : not betting advice. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
