DATE: Thursday, July 9, 2026
LOCATION: Saratoga Race Course : “The Spa”
SESSION: Summer Meet, Week 1
REPORT TYPE: Raymond Track Report [Free Edition]
HIGH-LEVEL SUMMARY
Saratoga Race Course enters its first full week of the 2026 summer meet with a nine-race card featuring a mix of claiming contests, maiden special weights, and high-leverage allowance optional claiming events. Historical data for the July stretch at Saratoga indicates a high volatility index; favorites are historically vulnerable in deep fields, particularly on the inner turf.
Today’s data highlights a significant “Jockey Advantage” for J L Ortiz, who holds a 35% win rate across multiple entries. The Raymond Track Report utilizes a clinical, data-first approach to identify value in the Win, Place, and Show pools. Every selection is backed by the ATS Stats proprietary database, which tracks jockey performance, trainer “In the Money” (ITM) percentages, and horse-specific historical win data.
The C.O.W. (Chance of Winning) metric: a core component of the Raymond Report: is applied to each race to establish a hierarchical confidence level for all “Pick Order” selections.
RACE #1: SARATOGA : $59,000 CLAIMING
POST TIME: 01:10 PM
DISTANCE: 1 Mile on the Dirt
SENTIMENT: BULLISH : Top pick Ortiz (35%) shows strong historical alignment in dirt mile routes.
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 9-2 | (6) Bow Draw | J L Ortiz (35%) |
| PLACE | 4-1 | (5) Street View | T Gaffalione (24%) |
| SHOW | 5-1 | (2) Royal Bobbie | F Prat (23%) |
| JOKER | 2-1 | (1) Snide | J Lezcano (19%) |
- ALTERNATES: (4) Malu (8-1), (3) Tough Street (5-2)
- EXACTA: 6/5 BOX, 5/2 BOX, 2/1 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 6/5/2 BOX, 1/5/2 BOX
- DATA POINT: Horses with Best “WIN” Percentage: 3/1
- TRAINER STATS: Best ITM %: 5/3/6/1
- CONTEXT: Early pace is expected to be moderate. (6) Bow Draw enters with high-signal jockey metrics.
RACE #2: SARATOGA : $115,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
POST TIME: 01:44 PM
DISTANCE: 5 1/2 Furlongs on the Turf
SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL : Sprint on the turf often favors late closers; wide pools expected.
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 7-2 | (5) Beach Sandals | J L Ortiz (35%) |
| PLACE | 4-1 | (8) Pirate Ship | T Gaffalione (24%) |
| SHOW | 5-2 | (6) Generational | F Prat (23%) |
| JOKER | 15-1 | (1) Magical Mikel | C Elliott (20%) |
- ALTERNATES: (3) Just a Holiday (9-2), (7) Call Attendant (6-1)
- EXACTA: 5/8 BOX, 8/6 BOX, 6/1 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 5/8/6 BOX, 1/8/6 BOX
- DATA POINT: Horses with Best “WIN” Percentage: 8/4/1
- TRAINER STATS: Best ITM %: 3/6/8/4
- CONTEXT: High-payout potential in the Joker slot with (1) Magical Mikel at 15-1.
RACE #3: SARATOGA : $115,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
POST TIME: 02:18 PM
DISTANCE: 6 1/2 Furlongs on the Dirt
SENTIMENT: BEARISH : Large spread in win probability; potential for significant chalk failure.
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 15-1 | (1) Collective Bargain | E J Zayas (27%) |
| PLACE | 20-1 | (2) Ames | T Gaffalione (24%) |
| SHOW | 20-1 | (6) Giant Sense | J Rodriguez (24%) |
| JOKER | 8-1 | (3) Rose to Riches | F Prat (23%) |
- ALTERNATES: (5) Cold Spell (2-5), (4) Fletch’s Rockette (9-2)
- EXACTA: 1/2 BOX, 2/6 BOX, 6/3 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 3/2/6 BOX
- DATA POINT: Horse with Best “WIN” Percentage: 1
- TRAINER STATS: Best ITM %: 5/3/7/4
- CONTEXT: Heavy underdog lean. (1) Collective Bargain at 15-1 represents a massive value discrepancy against market expectations.
ANALYTICAL SPOTLIGHT: THE RAYMOND TRACK REPORT METHODOLOGY
Success at Saratoga requires more than just picking fast horses. The ATS Stats Horse Racing Database tracks situational variables that retail bettors often overlook. Our models weigh Jockey/Trainer combinations (JT%) alongside recent speed figures and track surface conditions.
The Raymond Track Report specializes in identifying “The Joker”: the horse priced at 8-1 or higher that possesses the statistical profile of a winner. For professional horseplayers, utilizing these tipsheets is about managing the Law of Averages. In a 9-race card, identifying one or two high-value winners is the difference between a neutral day and a high-payout session.
RACE #4: SARATOGA : $42,000 CLAIMING
POST TIME: 02:52 PM
DISTANCE: 1 Mile on the Dirt
SENTIMENT: BULLISH : High-percentage jockeys dominate the top three slots.
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 6-1 | (1) Miss American Pie | T Gaffalione (24%) |
| PLACE | 3-1 | (4) Margarita Molly | F Prat (23%) |
| SHOW | 5-1 | (5) Karey | C Elliott (20%) |
| JOKER | 5-1 | (6) Defining Role | R Santana, Jr. (19%) |
- ALTERNATES: (7) Heavens Lee (8-1), (2) Twirly (7-2)
- EXACTA: 1/4 BOX, 4/5 BOX, 5/6 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 6/4/5 BOX
- DATA POINT: Horses with Best “WIN” Percentage: 1/2
- TRAINER STATS: Best ITM %: 6/2/7/4
RACE #5: SARATOGA : $120,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
POST TIME: 03:26 PM
DISTANCE: 1 Mile on the Dirt
SENTIMENT: BULLISH : Market favorite (3) Soaring High carries elite jockey metrics.
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 1-1 | (3) Soaring High | J L Ortiz (35%) |
| PLACE | 8-1 | (5) Hidden Rose | T Gaffalione (24%) |
| SHOW | 15-1 | (6) I’m a Cutie Pie | J Rodriguez (24%) |
| JOKER | 9-2 | (2) Brunch With Amy | F Prat (23%) |
- ALTERNATES: (4) Will Not Be Swayed (8-1), (7) Fast and Frisky (10-1)
- EXACTA: 3/5 BOX, 5/6 BOX, 6/2 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
- DATA POINT: Horse with Best “WIN” Percentage: 1
- TRAINER STATS: Best ITM %: 1/5/6/2
- CONTEXT: High-confidence Win selection. (3) Soaring High is the technical anchor of the early Pick-5.
RACE #6: SARATOGA : $125,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
POST TIME: 04:01 PM
DISTANCE: 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL : Inner turf conditions favor tactical speed.
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 9-2 | (1) Queen of Hawaii | J L Ortiz (35%) |
| PLACE | 6-1 | (9) Ashikidah | T Gaffalione (24%) |
| SHOW | 10-1 | (4) Strutsherstuff | J Rodriguez (24%) |
| JOKER | 3-1 | (2) Play With Fire | F Prat (23%) |
- ALTERNATES: (8) Being Myself (15-1), (7) Opulent Restraint (7-2)
- EXACTA: 1/9 BOX, 9/4 BOX, 4/2 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 1/9/4 BOX, 2/9/4 BOX
- DATA POINT: Horses with Best “WIN” Percentage: 10/1
- TRAINER STATS: Best ITM %: 1/2/9/5
RACE #7: SARATOGA : $52,000 CLAIMING
POST TIME: 04:36 PM
DISTANCE: 6 Furlongs on the Dirt
SENTIMENT: BULLISH : Ortiz maintains strong win-rate edge in dirt sprints.
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 8-1 | (5) Burninhunkoflove | J L Ortiz (35%) |
| PLACE | 15-1 | (1) Screaming Uncle | R Gutierrez (29%) |
| SHOW | 12-1 | (8) Timaeus | S Gonzalez (24%) |
| JOKER | 8-1 | (6) Big Hat Willie | J Rodriguez (24%) |
- ALTERNATES: (4) War Master (8-1), (7) Stewie (12-1)
- EXACTA: 5/1 BOX, 1/8 BOX, 8/6 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 5/1/8 BOX, 6/1/8 BOX
- DATA POINT: Horses with Best “WIN” Percentage: 2/1
- TRAINER STATS: Best ITM %: 6/4/5/3
- CONTEXT: Competitive field with high “Show” payout potential on (8) Timaeus.
RACE #8: SARATOGA : $78,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
POST TIME: 05:11 PM
DISTANCE: 5 1/2 Furlongs on the Turf
SENTIMENT: BEARISH : High degree of variance. 15-horse field.
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 30-1 | (4) Roar of the Crowd | R Gutierrez (29%) |
| PLACE | 6-1 | (3) Russi | E J Zayas (27%) |
| SHOW | 7-2 | (8) Counter Move | T Gaffalione (24%) |
| JOKER | 4-1 | (14) Math Tutor | J E Morelos (24%) |
- ALTERNATES: (12) Farm Team (8-1), (2) Bridle a Butterfly (9-2)
- EXACTA: 4/3 BOX, 3/8 BOX, 8/14 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 4/3/8 BOX, 14/3/8 BOX
- DATA POINT: Horses with Best “WIN” Percentage: 8/9/1
- TRAINER STATS: Best ITM %: 2/1/7/10
- CONTEXT: Massively undervalued Win pick with (4) Roar of the Crowd at 30-1. Extreme high-signal value.
RACE #9: SARATOGA : $115,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
POST TIME: 05:46 PM
DISTANCE: 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL : Closing race features deep turf roster.
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 8-1 | (4) Democracy Defender | J L Ortiz (35%) |
| PLACE | 12-1 | (2) Iron Palace | E J Zayas (27%) |
| SHOW | 10-1 | (11) Ollie Luke Out | T Gaffalione (24%) |
| JOKER | 10-1 | (7) Bull Shoals | J E Morelos (24%) |
- ALTERNATES: (13) Asked and Answered (3-1), (5) Coordinator (2-1)
- EXACTA: 4/2 BOX, 2/11 BOX, 11/7 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 4/2/11 BOX, 7/2/11 BOX
- DATA POINT: Horses with Best “WIN” Percentage: 6/13/1
- TRAINER STATS: Best ITM %: 11/1/6/5
PROFESSIONAL BETTING ADVICE
For those following the Raymond Report, consistency is prioritized over “gut feelings.” Always cross-reference these tipsheets with today’s top sports betting advice for market sentiment and line movements. Saratoga is known as the “Graveyard of Champions,” where heavy favorites often fall. Diversifying wagers via Exacta and Trifecta boxes: as suggested in the data modules above: is the statistically sound path to long-term profitability.
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For entertainment and informational purposes only : not betting advice. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
