As we head into Week 3, many of us find ourselves in the middle of the pack in a position to make calculated risks. I do think the season is still in its early stages, and do recommend playing as straight up as your psyche allows, but if you feel yourself gripping a bit with your place in the standings in may be time to take the contrarian approach. There are two ways to be contrarian in this format. The first way, is to regard the Consensus picks and go directly against one or more of the top 5 games that the field is betting on. The WSOH has a “CONSENSUS PICKS” tab where you can view how the field is leaning. The second way is to identify games that no one wants to touch, and nail your selection. A list of the top 10 CONSENSUS PICKS is a good start to see what games everyone is on.
DETROIT +3.5 vs ATLANTA
The betting public has no faith in the defending NFC champs, and I’m ok with that. The Atlanta defense did enough to shut down an even bigger offensive juggernaut in Green Bay, though they were at home. Now the Falcons travel on the road and are giving up 3.5 points against a Detroit team led by Matt Stafford who has shredded two great defensive units with a 70% completion rate and a league leading six passing TDs. Detroit could win this game outright, and WSOH gamers seem to believe it, but I’m going contrarian, by not betting this game at all, and simply not playing it. I think Atlanta has the most balanced team in the NFC as well as the most balance offense.
BALTIMORE -4 vs JACKSONVILLE
This is going to be a home game feel for the Jaguars who have been to London, England and played two years in a row. Everyone thinks the Ravens are going to turn Blake Bortles over 5 times in this one and blow Jacksonville, but let’s not forget how improved the Jags defense is and how compromised the Raven’s offense is with a major injury to the O-line. I think Baltimore wins, but Jacksonville covers in a low scoring game… bonus — consider the under here.
NEW ORLEANS +6 vs CAROLINA
Drew Brees’ home/away splits are amongst the worst in the NFL. This is concerning as the Panthers aside from Greg Olsen roll out a healthy offense and a fully stacked defense. New Orleans is bad, and to any millennials reading this that means that they are really bad. I’m going contrarian here and with Carolina covering at home with low confidence value assigned.
NEW YORK +6 vs PHILADELPHIA
This Giants team is up against it, and against a divisional foe no less. I try to avoid divisional matchups, but 6 points is too much. The Giants still have a great defense, and can play anyone close. The Eagles have a better O-line, but that’s it really, and I don’t think that’s worth 6 points if Odell Beckham is playing. G-men cover on the road.
GREEN BAY -9 vs CINCINNATI
I do think the Bengals score in this one, maybe multiple times, but the Packers are at home, and Aaron Rodgers ain’t turning the ball over twice in this one. Do you really think Andy Dalton with no Tyler Eifert is going to fare better than Russell Wilson? The answer is no… The Packers will jump out in this one and the Bengals will chip into the lead with some legit garbage time production.
O/U SPECIAL – Minnesota/Tampa Bay 46.5
I’ll play one this week, but I’m not crazy about it. The truth is the top players week to week are consider both over/under and pick em’… so I would be foolish not to follow suit. I don’t trust the Vikings offense without Sam Bradford, and the Tampa Bay defense though banged up is still superior to most in the league with their front seven. Minnesota’s defense is pretty stout as well, and I just don’t see these teams combining for more than six TDs.
Good Luck Gamers!!